Validation of the Polish version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population (60–70 years old)

Purpose. To assess the reliability and validity of the Polish version of the 36-point World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) in an elderly population. Method. One thousand randomly selected individuals, aged 60–70 years, living in south-eastern Poland were assessed using the Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0. Results. The analysis confirmed the high reliability and validity of the tool. Cronbach’s α index was 0.89. The tool had high stability, and the correlation between test and retest results was high. The relevance of the domain selection was high or very high. A factor analysis confirmed the relevance of assigning questions to domains. High theoretical relevance was also demonstrated. Statistically significant differences between those who were and were not suffering from health problems were observed. An analysis of the internal structure of the WHODAS 2.0 revealed strong correlations between the components of each domain and the final result. Conclusion. The Polish version of the WHODAS 2.0 showed high reliability and validity; thus, it can be used to assess health, functioning and disability in the elderly population of Poland.     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃对淮河中上游径流影响预估

论文应用第5次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中5个全球气候模式(Global Climate Models,GCMs)和3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下的预估结果,分析了淮河中上游地区未来的气候变化特征。进一步基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)水文模型定量预估了气候变化对该区域径流量的影响,并量化了预估结果的不确定性。结果表明:SWAT模型在淮河中上游对月径流量具有较好的模拟能力。在全球增温1.5℃和2.0℃下,淮河中上游年平均气温分别较基准期(1986—2005年)增加1.1℃和1.7℃;年降水量较基准期分别相应增加4%和7%;基于SWAT模型预估的年径流量较基准期分别增加5%和8%。未来气候变化不会改变月径流分布特征,年内径流仍集中在盛夏和初秋(6—9月)。预估的月丰水流量明显增加,尤其当全球增温达到2.0℃后,出现洪涝的风险明显增大。未来降水量和径流量预估都存在较大的不确定性,不确定性主要来源于GCMs,在全球增温2.0℃下预估的不确定性更大。     

矿井通风网络复杂度与风机控制力量化计算

为了探究矿井通风网络复杂度与风机控制力的关系,提出分支关联度、最小距离、通风网络复杂度和风机控制力的概念。利用vCad2.0进行数字实验,对网络复杂度与风机控制力的关系进行定量研究。结果表明:随着网络复杂度的增加,矿井通风系统的有效风量率减小,且认为该值减小到60%时,视为风机控制力的极限,此时网络拓扑结构为风机所能控制的最大网络复杂度。地面集中供风时,同时工作的中段数量存在上限,最大值为7。将结论用于某有色金属矿进行实证研究,找出该矿深部中段通风困难的原因,为矿井进一步整改提供理论依据。     

Unravelling the Threads: Discourses of Sustainability and Consumption in an Online Forum

This article analyzes an online discussion that followed an article published by UK environmental activist and journalist George Monbiot in The Guardian online newspaper. The analysis addresses the ways in which participants in an online forum debate responded to the tensions and contradictions between lifestyle, consumption, and sustainability highlighted in the original article. The discursive construction of class, green political orientations, and identities; visions of “the good life”; and appeals to religion and science are highlighted throughout the analysis—as are the discursive strategies for positioning self, other, and audience in the debate. The argument emphasizes the heterogeneity of discursive positioning and reflects on the role of social media in the politics of consumption and sustainability, especially given the inherent reflexivity of web forums as online communicative forms.     

巧用Premiere Pro 2.0 制作艺术倒计时片头

Premiere Pro 2.0 是用于编辑影视作品的专业软件,可以编辑和制作电影、DV、栏目包装、字幕、网络视频、电子相册等.本文介绍了其自带的制作倒计时片头效果模板的使用方法,提出了利用Premiere Pro 2.0视频转场特效结合专业制图软件制作艺术倒计时效果的具体方法.     

基于jQuery框架的AJAX网站设计模式的研究

从AJAX技术出发,对实现AJAX技术常用框架ASP.NET AJAX、Dojo、DWR、Prototype、jQuery、YahooUser Interface进行讨论,重点介绍了其中较为优秀的jQuery框架,并用具体实例证明jQuery可以非常方便快捷的开发网站,并将WEB设计由原来的三层变为四层,即页面设计、前台逻辑设计、业务逻辑设计和数据库设计,它们之间相对独立,网站设计结构清晰、维护容易.图1,表1,参6.     

未来升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下中国水稻产量可能变化趋势

基于ISI-MIP的5个气候模式在4种RCP情景下模拟输出未来气候数据,筛选未来升温1.5℃和2.0℃的情景数据,依托CERES-Rice水稻模型,模拟升温1.5℃和2.0℃的背景下中国各区水稻产量变化趋势,综合分析未来气候变化特征与水稻产量之间的关系。结果表明:在1.5℃和2.0℃升温背景下,中国平均温度相对于基准时段分别升高1.19℃和1.87℃,平均降水量相对于基准时段分别增加3.07%和6.17%。1.5℃升温背景下中国水稻单产平均减幅7.49%,减产面积占水稻种植总面积的68.6%,严重减产面积占水稻种植总面积的10.3%,其中华南双季稻区单产减幅最大,而东北单季稻区单产增幅最大;2.0℃升温背景下中国水稻单产平均减幅12.02%,减产面积占水稻种植总面积的70.6%,严重减产面积占水稻种植总面积的18.7%,其中华南双季稻区单产减幅仍然最大,而西北单季稻区单产增幅最大。