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1.
A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion. 相似文献
2.
In order to study a new leak detection and location method for oil and natural gas pipelines based on acoustic waves, the propagation model is established and modified. Firstly, the propagation law in theory is obtained by analyzing the damping impact factors which cause the attenuation. Then, the dominant-energy frequency bands of leakage acoustic waves are obtained through experiments by wavelet transform analysis. Thirdly, the actual propagation model is modified by the correction factor based on the dominant-energy frequency bands. Then a new leak detection and location method is proposed based on the propagation law which is validated by the experiments for oil pipelines. Finally, the conclusions and the method are applied to the gas pipelines in experiments. The results indicate: the modified propagation model can be established by the experimental method; the new leak location method is effective and can be applied to both oil and gas pipelines and it has advantages over the traditional location method based on the velocity and the time difference. Conclusions can be drawn that the new leak detection and location method can effectively and accurately detect and locate the leakages in oil and natural gas pipelines. 相似文献
3.
4.
Carly E. Federman Durelle T. Scott Erich T. Hester 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(1):29-48
River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization. 相似文献
5.
为减少事故损失,必须对矿热炉安装施工危险源进行分析。基于此,对矿热炉安装工序中最重要工序炉壳安装应用作业危险性分析进行分析。将炉壳安装作业分成3大部分,用鱼刺图分析方法进行分析,总结出矿热炉炉壳安装中事故发生的主要原因并提出对策措施,以预防和减少事故的发生。 相似文献
6.
全(多)氟烷基化合物(per(poly)fluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)在环境各个介质及人体样品中广泛被检出,近年,在室内空气和灰尘中也普遍发现PFASs.研究表明,室内空气中PFASs的含量普遍高于室外空气,室内空气和灰尘中的PFASs可能是室外空气的污染来源及人体暴露源,因此室内环境中PFASs成为环境领域的又一个研究热点.但目前为止,我国还没有开展室内空气中PFASs的相关研究,室内灰尘中PFASs的研究也相对较少.本文就室内空气和灰尘中PFASs的采样与分析方法、污染现状、来源分析及人体暴露等4个方面进行了综合阐述,以期为我国室内环境中PFASs的研究提供参考. 相似文献
7.
基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
基于Agent的建模方法(ABSS)通过自下而上的方式,考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用,来表征系统的宏观特征,是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段,在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上,讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征,总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用,分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势,讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。 相似文献
8.
可张孔曝气器曝气能耗试验研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过试验研究,总结出可张孔曝气阻力损失的影响因素,以优化产品的结构设计参数,降低产品在工程应用中的能耗,获取更好的经济效益。 相似文献
9.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
10.
灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律,探讨其内部的协调关系,是开展节水型社会建设规划,实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而,目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时,通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示,较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此,针对产业用水系统的特性,利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数,以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究,结果显示:上海市产业用水系统基本有序,发展比较协调,其用水综合效益较大,但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖;其中,农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺,在未来用水规划中应予以重视。 相似文献