洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

关中地区飑线天气的预测及灾害对策探讨

对１９６１～１９９０年发生在陕西省关中地区的飑线天气及其灾害进行了统计分析，并从天气形势背景方面对飑线的发生发展进行了研究和分析，同时就飑线的预测和防灾对策进行了探讨。     

Treatability studies of naphthalene in soil,water and air with persulfate activated by iron(Ⅱ)

Chemical oxidation was applied to an artificially contaminated soil with naphthalene (NAP). Evaluation of NAP distribution and mass reduction in soil, water and air phases was carried out through mass balance. Evaluation of NAP distribution and mass reduction in soil, water and air phases was carried out through mass balance. The importance of the air phase analysis was emphasized by demonstrating how NAP behaves in a sealed system over a 4 hr reaction period. Design of Experiments method was applied to the following variables: sodium persulfate concentration [SP], ferrous sulfate concentration [FeSO₄], and pH. The system operated with a prefixed solid to liquid ratio of 1:2. The following conditions resulted in optimum NAP removal [SP] = 18.37 g/L, [FeSO₄] = 4.25 g/L and pH = 3.00. At the end of the 4 hr reaction, 62% of NAP was degraded. In the soil phase, the chemical oxidation reduced the NAP concentration thus achieving levels which comply with Brazilian and USA environmental legislations. Besides the NAP partitioning view, the monitoring of each phase allowed the variabilities assessment over the process, refining the knowledge of mass reduction. Based on NAP distribution in the system, this study demonstrates the importance of evaluating the presence of semi-volatile and volatile organic compounds in the air phase during remediation, so that there is greater control of the system as to the distribution and presence of the contaminant in the environment. The results highlight the importance of treating the contaminant in all its phases at the contaminated site.     

Chemical characteristics of road dust PM2.5 fraction in oasis cities at the margin of Tarim Basin

In order to understand the compositions characteristics of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) fraction in road dust (RD_2.5) of oasis cities on the edge of Tarim Basin, 30 road dust (RD) samples were collected in Kashi, Cele, and Yutian in the spring, 2018, and RD_2.5 was collected using the resuspension approach. Eight water-soluble ions, 39 trace elements and 8 fractions of carbon-containing species in PM_2.5 were analyzed. Ca²⁺ and Ca were the most abundant ions and elements in RD_2.5 (7.1% and 9.5%). Cl^- in RD_2.5 was affected not only by attributed to saline-alkali soils in oasis cities of the Tarim Basin and dust from Taklimakan Desert but also by human activities. Moreover, the organic carbon/elemental carbon (OC/EC) ratio indicated that carbon components in RD_2.5 in Cele town mainly come from fossil fuel combustion, while those in Yutian and Kashi mainly come from biomass combustion. It is noteworthy that high Ca in RD_2.5 was seriously affected by anthropogenic emissions, and high Na and K contents in RD_2.5 could be derived from soil and desert dust. It was estimated that Cd, Tl, Sn and Cr were emitted from anthropogenic emissions using the enrichment factor. The coefficients of divergence (COD) result indicated that the influence of local emission on road dust emission is greater than that of long-distance transmission. This study is the first time to comprehensively analyze the chemical characteristics of road dust in oasis cities, and the results provides the sources of road dust at the margin of Tarim Basin.     

Concentrations and chemical compositions of PM10 during hazy and non-hazy days in Beijing

In order to study the concentrations of major components,characteristics and comparison in hazy and non-hazy days of PM_(10) in Beijing,aerosol samples were collected at urban site in Beijing from December 29,2014 to January 22,2015.Heavy metals like Zn,Pb,Mn,Cu,As,V,Cr and Cd were deeply studied considering their toxic effects on human being;nine water-soluble inorganic ions(SO_4~(2-),NO_3~-,NH_4~+,Na~+,K~+,Cl~-,Ca~(2+) and Mg~(2+)) and carbon fractions(OC and EC) were also analyzed.The concentrations of heavy metals were 1.03–1.98 times higher in hazy days than those in non-hazy days,mainly due to biomass burning and coal burning.The trends in total heavy metals concentrations were basically consistent with the trends in PM concentrations except for two obvious periods(12.29–12.30;1.14–1.15);but when air masses accumulated locally or around Beijing,trends in PM concentrations and heavy metals were opposite.The proportion for NO_3~-/SO_4~(2-) indicated that mobile sources such as automobiles were important reasons for haze in Beijing.Correlation between OC and EC during non-hazy days was strong(R~2= 0.95) but it was low(R~2= 0.67) during hazy days,and large variations for OC/EC values occurred in hazy days.The calculated mass concentration of SOC is 2.58 μg/m~3,which only accounted for 10.1% of the OC concentration.When air masses from the far north-west,they decreased PM concentration in Beijing and they were relatively clean;however,those from the near east,south-east and south of the mainland increased PM concentration and they were dirty.     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流灾损土地利用及生态修复模式——以北川县都坝河小流域为例

汶川地震诱发了大量泥石流灾害,灾损土地利用和生态修复是灾区产业重建面临的重要课题。以北川县都坝河小流域为研究对象,通过调查灾损土地禀赋、灾害特征、土地需求,采取多因素耦合和关键因子限制分析法,探讨灾害胁迫条件下的经济活动与生态修复之间的互馈作用,结果表明：（1）流域新增土地供给源主要为泥石流灾损土地,土地资源化利用受灾害、聚落和产业结构控制;（2）灾损土地根据成因划分为沟口堆积型、沟道冲淤型以及岸坡侵蚀型,三者的肥力、安全性及交通条件等特征具有显著差异;（3）基于“因灾分区、耕地优先、产业共建、美居造景”的原则,建立了灾损土地的利用方式和生态修复模式,并选取杨家沟进行验证,沟域灾损土地利用方式为生态林地、产业林地及优质耕地,分别占比28.5%、56.3%、15.2%,生态修复措施主要为提高土地安全度、提升植被覆盖率和增强水保功能。该研究建立的震区土地利用和生态修复模式可有力协调人地矛盾、发展绿色经济和提升人居环境。     

水体中重要污染元素化学形态分析研究方法及其进展

概述了元素化学形态分析的意义、概念和范围，元素化学形态分析与模拟计算方法，并分别对某些重要元素的化学形态分析方法的进展作了综述，介绍了１１５篇文献。     

钻井废泥浆中重金属化学形态及潜在生态效应评价

利用化学萃取法对江苏9个油田的不同类型钻井废泥浆的重金属化学形态分布特征进行调查分析,同时选用Hakanson的潜在生态危害指数法对钻井废泥浆中的重金属总量进行生态效应评价。结果表明,钻井废泥浆中Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr主要以残渣态和有机结合态为主,活性形态含量较低;采用Hakanson的潜在生态危害指数进行评价,发现Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd都属于轻微生态危害水平,而Cr多属于中等水平,产生潜在生态危害的重金属主要为Cr。     

人工神经网络用于铅的化学形态模拟计算

用前馈线性网络法求解水体系中Ｐｂ（２＋）与ＯＨ－之间的反应常数，不同训练算法对求解结果的精度、收敛速度及权值均有影响．结果表明，批处理算法的精度最好，权值不出现负值，但运算时间最长；在线算法的精度虽不如批处理算法，而比数据变换－在线算法好，权值有时会出现负值．运算时间较长；数据变换－在线算法的优点是运算时间短，但相对误差较大，权值出现负值的机会多。采用反馈网络模拟计算铅的各种化学形态的浓度．用物料核算的方法对反馈网络模型进行检验表明，此种模型用于平衡计算是可行的，详细分析了理论模拟和实验曲线的差异的原因，温度的影响最小，在４＜ｐＨ＜９时，ＣＯ有重要的影响．在国代检验时，ｎ值取整所引入的误差的影响亦不可忽视。从本文的结果可以看到，采用前馈网络和反馈网络相结合的方法考察水体中的化学形态是可行的．从而为解决这一类问题提供了一种可能的途径．