废水处理方案选择专家系统的设计

介绍了一种用于选择工业废水工艺流程方案的专家系统的设计。该系统采用框架式结构对知识进行描述，用指标函数方程进行各种费用的计算比较，最终得出最佳处理工艺流程方案。     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.     

Hunter Reporting of Catch per Unit Effort as a Monitoring Tool in a Bushmeat‐Harvesting System

Abstract: Growing threats to biodiversity in the tropics mean there is an increasing need for effective monitoring that balances scientific rigor with practical feasibility. Alternatives to professional techniques are emerging that are based on the involvement of local people. Such locally based monitoring methods may be more sustainable over time, allow greater spatial coverage and quicker management decisions, lead to increased compliance, and help encourage attitude shifts toward more environmentally sustainable practices. Nevertheless, few studies have yet compared the findings or cost‐effectiveness of locally based methods with professional techniques or investigated the power of locally based methods to detect trends. We gathered data on bushmeat‐hunting catch and effort using a professional technique (accompanying hunters on hunting trips) and two locally based methods in which data were collected by hunters (hunting camp diaries and weekly hunter interviews) in a 15‐month study in Equatorial Guinea. Catch and effort results from locally based methods were strongly correlated with those of the professional technique and the spatial locations of hunting trips reported in the locally based methods accurately reflected those recorded with the professional technique. We used power simulations of catch and effort data to show that locally based methods can reliably detect meaningful levels of change (20% change with 80% power at significance level [α]= 0.05) in multispecies catch per unit effort. Locally based methods were the most cost‐effective for monitoring. Hunter interviews collected catch and effort data on 240% more hunts per person hour and 94% more hunts per unit cost, spent on monitoring, than the professional technique. Our results suggest that locally based monitoring can offer an accurate, cost‐effective, and sufficiently powerful method to monitor the status of natural resources. To establish such a system in Equatorial Guinea, the current lack of national and local capacity for monitoring and management must be addressed.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

鞍山市城市综合防灾研究实施方案和系统框图

该项研究的实施方案强调实干、真干和适当超前,研究的目标是建立鞍山市城市综合防灾智能辅助决策系统,为发展建设和减轻灾害服务。     

塔式起重机安全评判专家系统的研制

塔式起重机作为建筑施工的主要设备,在建筑等行业发挥着极其重要的作用,因而其安全问题受到各国有关部门的高度重视,但塔式起重机的事故率近年来仍未见下降,其安全问题仍然是建筑施工中的忧患之一。为此,笔者在建造了塔式起重机安全的依赖关系图的基础上,采用基于现代设计方法学的专家系统构造技术,使用ＶＩＳＵＡＬＣ＋ ＋ 开发了塔式起重机安全评判专家系统ＴＱＥＳ。该系统经全部测试通过,可对一般的塔式起重机进行安全评判     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

Maintenance of Forest Biodiversity in a Post-Soviet Governance Model: Perceptions by Local Actors in Lithuania

Successful biodiversity conservation does not depend on ecologic knowledge alone. Good conservation policies and policy implementation tools are equally important. Moreover, the knowledge, skills, and attitudes of local actors, directly in charge of operations in the field, are a key to successful policy implementation. The connections between policy objectives and their implementation as well as the involvement of local actors’ efforts in implementing policy objectives largely depend on the governance model in use. This article assesses the knowledge of local actors in relation to the biodiversity conservation objectives and tools in Lithuanian forest management. As a main framework for this study, the needs assessment approach was applied. The study used both in-depth open-ended interviews and follow-up telephone interviews. Two state forest enterprises in Lithuania were selected as the study sites. The findings indicate that policy objectives in the field of forest biodiversity conservation and the related tools are well known but not well understood by those in charge of forest biodiversity policy implementation. To improve the situation, a transition toward adaptive learning and participatory governance as a means of facilitating conservation efforts is proposed.