杨沸火灾监测预报方法研究（I）－理论基础

本文针对在扬沸前期征兆中表现出显著燃烧微爆噪音,提出了通过监测扬沸前兆噪音、联合温度信息,对扬沸火灾进行诊断、预报的方法。本文的第一部分主要讨论了该方法的理论基础,阐明了其基本原理和技术途径。     

Internal short circuit and accelerated rate calorimetry tests of lithium-ion cells: Considerations for methane-air intrinsic safety and explosion proof/flameproof protection methods

Researchers with the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) studied the potential for lithium-ion cell thermal runaway from an internal short circuit in equipment for use in underground coal mines. In this third phase of the study, researchers compared plastic wedge crush-induced internal short circuit tests of selected lithium-ion cells within methane (CH₄)-air mixtures with accelerated rate calorimetry tests of similar cells. Plastic wedge crush test results with metal oxide lithium-ion cells extracted from intrinsically safe evaluated equipment were mixed, with one cell model igniting the chamber atmosphere while another cell model did not. The two cells models exhibited different internal short circuit behaviors. A lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO₄) cell model was tolerant to crush-induced internal short circuits within CH₄-air, tested under manufacturer recommended charging conditions. Accelerating rate calorimetry tests with similar cells within a nitrogen purged 353-mL chamber produced ignitions that exceeded explosion proof and flameproof enclosure minimum internal pressure design criteria. Ignition pressures within a 20-L chamber with 6.5% CH₄-air were relatively low, with much larger head space volume and less adiabatic test conditions. The literature indicates that sizeable lithium thionyl chloride (LiSOCl₂) primary (non rechargeable) cell ignitions can be especially violent and toxic. Because ignition of an explosive atmosphere is expected within explosion proof or flameproof enclosures, there is a need to consider the potential for an internal explosive atmosphere ignition in combination with a lithium or lithium-ion battery thermal runaway process, and the resulting effects on the enclosure.     

火源位置对轻型门式刚架竖向位移的影响

为探究总火源功率相同时,两个火源相对位置变化对轻型门式刚架竖向位移的影响规律,采用经实验验证过的有限元方法对其进行瞬态非线性热-结构耦合数值模拟,研究了大功率火灾下单个火源、两个火源位置变化对门式刚架的温度分布以及竖向位移的影响。结果表明:保持火灾总功率30 MW不变时,在单一火源作用下火源位于跨中时刚架位移最大,在两火源作用下,15 MW-15 MW的火源组合最危险、刚架的破坏时间随火源相对距离的增大而增大,功率较大的火源位于临界位置比功率较小的火源位于临界位置有利。且功率较大的火源位于临界位置时,火源相对位置变化对刚架竖向位移的影响不显著,而功率较小的火源位于临界位置时, 影响显著。     

Further study of the intrinsic safety of internally shorted lithium and lithium-ion cells within methane-air

National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) researchers continue to study the potential for lithium and lithium-ion battery thermal runaway from an internal short circuit in equipment for use in underground coal mines. Researchers conducted cell crush tests using a plastic wedge within a 20-L explosion-containment chamber filled with 6.5% CH₄-air to simulate the mining hazard. The present work extends earlier findings to include a study of LiFePO₄ cells crushed while under charge, prismatic form factor LiCoO₂ cells, primary spiral-wound constructed LiMnO₂ cells, and crush speed influence on thermal runaway susceptibility. The plastic wedge crush was a more severe test than the flat plate crush with a prismatic format cell. Test results indicate that prismatic Saft MP 174565 LiCoO₂ and primary spiral-wound Saft FRIWO M52EX LiMnO₂ cells pose a CH₄-air ignition hazard from internal short circuit. Under specified test conditions, A123 systems ANR26650M1A LiFePO₄ cylindrical cells produced no chamber ignitions while under a charge of up to 5 A. Common spiral-wound cell separators are too thin to meet intrinsic safety standards provisions for distance through solid insulation, suggesting that a hard internal short circuit within these cells should be considered for intrinsic safety evaluation purposes, even as a non-countable fault. Observed flames from a LiMnO₂ spiral-wound cell after a chamber ignition within an inert atmosphere indicate a sustained exothermic reaction within the cell. The influence of crush speed on ignitions under specified test conditions was not statistically significant.     

火灾过程中火源热释放速率模型及其实验测试方法

详细分析了目前常用的火源热释放速率模型，并对其特点和参数范围进行对比讨论；同时还介绍了基于氧消耗原理的热释放速率测试方法和基于质量损失速率的热释放速率测试方法，并给出了部分实验测试结果。     

HazMat transportation safety assessment: Analysis of a “Viareggio-like” incident in the Netherlands

Relevant safety issues are associated with hazardous materials transportation, especially when transport routes cross populated areas. On March 6th, 2015, a passenger train collided with the last rail car of a freight train in Tilburg, the Netherlands. The last car contained 50 t of liquefied 1,3-butadiene. As a result of the collision, the last car showed deformation; a small leakage occurred but fortunately with no relevant consequences. However, extremely severe consequences could have happened, such as in the rail accident that occurred in Viareggio, Italy in 2009. In this work, the case of Tilburg was firstly outlined and explored by qualitative methods, in order to identify possible realistic final scenarios that could have happened. Second, the potential consequences of the identified scenarios were estimated through conventional integral model for physical effects evaluation. Comparison with the Viareggio case was also shown in order to support the discussion of the results obtained. Finally, lessons learned after the incident, policy making considerations, and indications for the risk mitigation of hazardous materials transportation are given.     

Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India

Forest fires constitute one of the most serious environmental problems in several forested regions of India. In the Indian sub-continent, relatively few studies have focused on the assessment of biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires at a landscape scale and the spatial aspects of these relationships. In this study, we used fire count data sets from satellite remote sensing data covering 78 districts over four different states of the Deccan Plateau, India, for assessing the underlying causes of fires. Spatial data for explanatory variables of fires pertaining to topography, vegetation, climate, anthropogenic and accessibility factors have been gathered corresponding with fire presence/absence. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of the presence of fires as a function of the explanatory variables. Results for fire area estimates suggested that, of the total fires covering 47,043km(2) that occurred during the year 2000 for the entire Indian region, 29.0% occurred in the Deccan Plateau, with Andhra Pradesh having 13.5%, Karnataka 14.7%, Kerala 0.1%, and Tamilnadu 1.15%. Results from the logistic regression suggest that the strongest influences on the fire occurrences were the amount of forest area, biomass densities, rural population density (PD), average precipitation of the warmest quarter, elevation (ELE) and mean annual temperature (MAT). Among these variables, biomass density (BD) and average precipitation of the warmest quarter had the highest significance, followed by others. These results on the best predictors of forest fires can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address broad scale fire risk concerns, and also as a tactical guide to help forest managers to design fire mitigation measures at the district level.     

Fire protection as the underpinning of good process safety programs

This paper will provide an overview of the role of fire protection engineers in the mitigation phase of a process safety program. Fire protection engineers are involved in the assessment of hazards and the selection of fire protection strategies which can reduce the risk to an acceptable level according to the stipulated goals and objectives. Fire protection strategies may include the installation of a variety of approaches, such as passive and active fire protection systems, manual intervention and siting. Passive systems include fire rated barriers and protection of openings in those barriers, while active systems include systems such as fire detectors and sprinklers. Manual intervention may include the manual activation of fixed fire protection systems or firefighting activities by facility fire brigades or municipal fire departments. The manual firefighting activities are typically considered to be in the ‘response’ phase.     

安徽省火灾经济损失的尾部分布研究

采用极大似然估计对安徽火灾经济损失进行了幂律分布拟合,采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov统计判断拟合优度,并选择了4种供选分布作为对比,研究何种分布更适用于描述火灾经济损失数据。研究发现,当经济损失大于100万元时,数据明显偏离幂律分布,通过p值可以拒绝数据服从幂律分布的假设。在5种分布中指数截断幂律分布的拟合效果最好,通过指数截断能够描述数据末端偏离幂律行为的现象。放火和生产作业两类原因的火灾,不仅满足幂律分布,而且指数截断幂律分布的拟合效果最优;不明确原因和静电两类原因的火灾,经济损失仅满足幂律分布;其他7种火灾原因对应的损失数据不能通过幂律分布拟合的p值检验。     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.