Does longevity impact the severity of traffic crashes? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers

Introduction: This article analyzes the effect of driver’s age in crash severity with a particular focus on those over the age of 65. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers around the world suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector. Method: We investigate differences in the severity of traffic crashes among two subgroups of older drivers –young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+), and findings are compared with the age interval of drivers under 65. Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by Spanish Traffic Authority. Parametric and semi-parametric regression models are applied. Results: We identified the factors related to the crash, vehicle, and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the crash being slight, serious, or fatal for the different age groups. Conclusions: We found that crash severity and the expected costs of crashes significantly increase when the driver is over the age of 75. Practical Applications: Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider there should be specific driver licensing requirements and driving training for elderly – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.     

System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

论弱势群体与公民环境权

弱势群体物质生活贫困,在市场中缺乏竞争能力,在社会和政治层面也处于弱势地位,这些特点决定了他们是公民环境权的贫困者。为此,需要设计合理的制度保护弱势群体公民环境权,需要用法律手段保护弱势群体公民环境权,还需要提高弱势群体保护公民环境权的自觉性。     

Just Blowing Smoke? Residents’ Social Construction of Communication about Wildfire

This study uses social constructionism as a basis for understanding the effectiveness of communication about wildfire risk between agency officials and wildland–urban interface (WUI) residents. Risk communication literature demonstrates a well-documented difference in the way land managers and stakeholders conceptualize risk. This is especially true of fire because management of these hazards have changed so drastically in past decades; fire managers have typically struggled to clearly articulate the current management policy to the public or integrate their specific knowledge in the risk management process. This study contributes to an understanding of how WUI residents construct communication about wildland fire and agency effectiveness in communicating the new era of fire inclusion. Specifically, we explore the personal and professional sources of information residents’ use to understand their fire risk and the subjects they would like more information about. We also explore the continued viability of Smokey Bear, the most enduring symbol of fire management.     

Food exploitation by a winter flock of greylag geese: behavioral dynamics,competition and social status

Summary To investigate the dynamics of the winter flock patch exploitation, feeding experiments were performed with 140 semi-tame, free-roaming greylag geese (Anser anser). Three different initial densities of barley were offered on a 50-m² patch: low (1600 grains/m²), intermediate (3300/m²) and high (I 1500/m²). Goose numbers on the patch, peck rates, and frequencies of agonistic encounters and of alert postures were observed by scanning the flock and in focal individuals. At low and intermediate initial food densities, peck rates decreased with food density, whereas at high food density, peck rates decreased only slightly over the feeding bout. Agonistic interactions increased as food decreased. A switch from exploitation to interference competition occurred at a threshold of approximately 900 remaining grains per square meter. With high initial food density, agonistic encounters began to increase gradually after 20–30 min. The same general patterns were observed for frequency of alertness. Family members occupied the patch for the longest time periods. The family female and the offspring fed most intensely. The family gander however, fed significantly less but was more aggressive and vigilant than all other social categories. Solitary geese spent their time on the patch doing little else but feeding and were the first to leave. It seems that high-ranking families and low-ranking singles adopt different competitive strategies, the former being superior interference competitors whereas the latter are forced scramble competitors.This study is dedicated to the memory of Konrad Lorenz Correspondence to: K. Kotrschal     

Groups confuse predators by exploiting perceptual bottlenecks: a connectionist model of the confusion effect

Aggregation is a well documented behaviour in a number of animal groups. The confusion effect is one mechanism thought to mitigate the success of predators feeding on gregarious prey and hence favour aggregation. An artificial neural network model of prey targeting is developed to explore the advantages prey species might derive through a tendency to group. The network illustrates how an abstract model of the computational mechanisms mediating the perception of prey position is able to show a degradation in performance as group size increases. The relationship between group size and predator confusion has a characteristic decreasing decelerating shape. Prey oddity is shown to reduce the impact of the confusion effect, thereby allowing predators to target prey more accurately. Hence shoaling behaviour is most profitable to the prey when prey phenotypes are visually indistinguishable to a predator. Futhermore it is shown that prey oddity is relatively more costly in large groups than in small groups and the implications for assortative schooling are discussed. Both the model and the results are intended to make the general point that cognitive constraints will limit the information that a nervous system can process at a number of different levels of neural organization.