洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Safety-related conclusions for the application of ultrasound in explosive atmospheres

International safety regulations such as EN 1127-1 consider ultrasound to be an ignition source. Currently, applications of ultrasound in explosive atmospheres have to comply with a threshold value of 1 mW/mm². However, it is unclear as to how this intensity has to be measured and, therefore, this threshold value is poorly defined. Moreover, it is based on theoretical estimations in analogy to other ignition sources and there are no publications or significant records on these estimations. Within a research project at PTB, it has now been investigated experimentally in relation to worst-case considerations including airborne ultrasound, focused MHz ultrasound in liquids and acoustic cavitation. On the basis of the results of the research it is now possible to revise the current regulations and to specify measures for safe operation of ultrasonic applications in explosive atmospheres. In this context, for ultrasound coupled directly to gaseous atmospheres a new threshold value of 170 dB (re. 20 μPa) can be suggested, and for ultrasonic applications in liquids, an augmentation can be made to the threshold to 400 mW/mm².     

Restrictive dermopathy and fetal behaviour

We report three siblings from consecutive pregnancies affected with restrictive dermopathy (RD). During the second pregnancy, fetal behavioural development and growth were studied extensively using ultrasound at 1–4 week intervals. Dramatic and sudden changes occurred in fetal body movements and growth but not until the end of the second trimester of pregnancy. Prominent at that time were prolonged periods of fetal quiescence and very low heart rate variability, together with abnormally executed body movements of short duration. Retarded femoral development and jerky abrupt fetal body movements (abnormal movement quality) were already present in the early second trimester of pregnancy. Facial anomalies emerged despite the presence of fetal mouth movements. The clinical features of RD were only partly explained by present knowledge of skin development and the fetal akinesia deformation sequence hypothesis. Quantitative assessment of fetal movements proved to be a poor early marker for antenatal diagnosis of this disorder. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in fetal heart rate pattern after intrauterine paracentesis in one twin with meconium peritonitis

We report a case of in utero paracentesis of ascites in a fetus with meconium peritonitis due to volvulus at 34 weeks which resulted in the correction of an abnormal fetal heart rate pattern and enabled vaginal delivery by preventing abdominal dystocia. The intrauterine intervention also helped to establish the diagnosis and potentially reduced the respiratory compromise after birth. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

母岩的风化剥蚀速率与土壤允许流失量的关系 --以长江三峡坝区风化花岗岩土壤为例

土壤允许流失量的确定是一个非常复杂而又必须解决的问题，它关系到水土保持措施的布设和土壤的可持续利用。然而，发育在不同母质上的土壤，其土壤的最大允许流失量差异很大，确定这一值的依据也各不相同。在岩成土壤地区，母岩风化剥蚀速率的大小直接影响土壤的发育。是确定土壤允许流失量、分析人类加速水土流失的重要依据之一。选长江三峡黄陵背斜段风化花岗岩土壤为研究对象，根据剥蚀沉积相关原理，通过恢复古地理环境及时代，计算出新生代以来本区花岗岩的平均风化剥蚀速率为16．97mm／ka．最大剥蚀速率为49．56。又根据区内太平溪流域的泥沙资料，算出了当地现代的剥蚀速率，多年平均为297．7mm／ka，最小值为31．5mm／ka，而水利部颁布的当地土壤允许流失量为200t／km^2,a，折合为76．9mm／ka，二者相差近1．5—4．5倍。基于此。提出了确定土壤允许流失量必须参考母岩风化剥蚀速率的新观点。     

北京市发展CNG汽车的条件与前景分析

北京市汽车排放污染物贡献率已达到：HC73.5％，CO63．4％，NOx46％。用CNG代替汽油作汽车燃料，可使CO减少97％、HC减少72％、NOx减少39％、CO2减少24％、SO2减少90％。建立CNG加气站和CNG汽车改装这两个CNG应用关键问题在技术上、经济上都是可行的。北京市CNG燃料来源有保障。北京市车辆都比较适合使用CNG气体燃料。北京有很强的CNG汽车产业科技力量。对北京市当前发展CNG汽车产业提出了一些建议。     

中国跨境能源贸易及隐含能源流动对比——以“一带一路”能源合作为例

随着“一带一路”倡议的提出,能源互联互通成为中国对外合作的重要组成。以“一带一路”能源合作为切入点,从直接能源贸易和隐含能源流动的双重角度刻画中国跨境能源关联并开展对比研究,主要结论包括：（1）从直接能源角度,“一带一路”沿线沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯等国家均为中国重要的直接能源进口国;（2）从隐含能源角度,中国为印度、新加坡、泰国等国家提供了大量的能源相关的商品服务;（3）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家直接能源贸易逆差明显,但隐含能源流动处于顺差地位;（4）综合考虑直接能源贸易及隐含能源流动,中国可以发挥不同类型能源关联的辐射带动作用,为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家能源互联互通与共建合作伙伴关系提供坚实基础。