用工业废水排放量预测地面水CODMn灰色方法研究

ＧＰＭ（１）灰色生长曲线常被用于等距时序环境系统的分析建模、非等距摆动空间序列方面的应用尚未报道。本文研究提出了将非等距摆动空间序列经过等距化处理的ＧＰＭ（１）线性回归优化建模方法采用该方法所建的非等距ＧＰＭ（１）模型用于工业废水量预测地面水ＣＯＤＭｎ的实例表明，该方法简捷，方便、精度高于回归分析，有较大实用价值。     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

Environmental degradation by mud in tropical estuaries

In wet tropical countries, the intense rainfall and the lack of effective restrictions on human activities in the river catchment leads to increased rates of soil erosion. This has increased the sediment loads many times over from the natural level. As a result, estuarine and coastal waters are becoming increasingly muddy with associated losses for society in terms of increased flooding and a degradation of the environment, the fisheries and the economic use of these waters. It is suggested that science-based models be used to predict the fate of mud in estuaries and coastal waters when planning development in river catchments, particularly in wet tropical countries. This would help integrate land and water management. Modelling technology is demonstrated by a combination of field and model studies in four turbid tropical estuaries, namely the Fly River in Papua New Guinea, the Mekong River in Vietnam, the Cimanuk River in Indonesia, and Hinchinbrook Channel in Australia. The final model is adapted to local conditions and extensively uses data assimilation especially for open boundary conditions. There can be a feedback between the hydrodynamics and the mud dynamics when the system silts; in wet tropical countries this can occur rapidly, sometimes in only 30 years. Electronic Publication     

Sorption of selenate on soils and pure phases: kinetic parameters and stabilisation

This study was conducted to identify the principle selenate carrier phases for two selected soils, by comparing their reactivity with selenate to that of pure phases of the solids. Silica, calcium carbonate, aluminium hydroxide, goethite, bentonite and humic acid were selected as the main soil carrier phases. Comparisons were made first on the parameter values obtained with the best fit of a kinetic sorption model which can discriminate instantaneous sorption from kinetically limited sorption. Then comparisons were made of the ability for each solid to stabilise selenate by measuring the ratio of the partition coefficient for sorption (Kd_sorption) over that of the desorption (Kd_desorption). Kinetics and stabilisation were used to help elucidate the nature of interactions with the test solid phases for a large range of selenate concentrations. The experiments were conducted over 165 h in batch reactors, the solid being isolated from the solution by dialysis tubing, at two pH (5.4 and 8) and three selenate concentrations (1 × 10⁻³, 1 × 10⁻⁶ and 1 × 10⁻⁸ mol L⁻¹). The results obtained showed that only aluminium hydroxide can sorb selenate throughout the studied pH range (pH 5.4 to 8.0). The sorption capacity on this mineral was high (Kd_sorption > 100 to 1 × 10⁴ L kg⁻¹) and the selenate was mainly stabilized by the formation of inner sphere complexes. The sorption on goethite occurred at pH 5.4 (Kd_sorption 52 L kg⁻¹), mainly as outer sphere complexes, and was null at pH 8. On silica, a weak sorption was observed only at pH 5.4 and at 165 h (Kd_sorption 4 L kg⁻¹). On bentonite, calcium carbonate and humic acid no significant sorption was observed. Concerning the two soils studied, different behaviours were observed for selenate. For soil Ro (pH 5.4), Kd_sorption was low (8 L kg⁻¹) compared to soil Bu (pH 8) (70 L kg⁻¹). The sorption behaviour of selenate on soil Ro was mainly due to outer sphere complexes, as for goethite, whereas for soil Bu the sorption was mainly attributed to inner sphere complexes followed by reduction mechanisms, probably initiated by microorganisms, in which no steady state was reached at the end of the 165 h experiments. The sorption of selenate decreased when concentrations reached 1 × 10⁻³ mol L⁻¹, due to solid saturation, except for aluminium hydroxide. Reduction of selenate seemed also to occur on goethite and soil Ro, for the same concentration, but without preventing a decrease in sorption. Thus, this work shows that the comparison of selenate behaviour between soil and pure phases helps to elucidate the main carrier phases and sorption mechanisms in soil.     

Redistribution of free tropospheric chemical species over West Africa: radicals (OH and HO₂), peroxide (H₂O₂) and acids (HNO₃ and H₂SO₄)

The purpose of this paper is to study the redistribution of chemical species (OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, HNO₃ and H₂SO₄) over West Africa, where the cloud cover is ubiquitously present, and where deep convection often develops. In this area, because of these cloud systems, chemical species are redistributed by the ascending and descending flow, or leached if they are soluble. So, we carry out a mesoscale study using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) coupled to a code of gas and aqueous chemistry (RAMS_Chemistry). It takes into account all processes under mesh. We examine several cases following the period (November and July), with inputs emissions (anthropogenic, biogenic and biomass burning). The radicals OH and HO₂ are an indicator of possibilities for chemical activity. They characterize the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and are very strong oxidants. The acids HNO₃ and H₂SO₄ are interesting in their transformation into nitrates and sulfates in precipitation. In November, when photochemistry is active during an event of biomass burning, concentrations of chemical species are higher than those of November in the absence of biomass burning. The concentrations of nitric acid double and sulfuric acid increases 70 times. In addition, the concentrations are even lower in July if there is a deep convection. Compared to measures of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA), the results and observations of radicals OH and HO₂ are the same order of magnitude. Emissions from biomass burning increase the concentrations of acid and peroxide, and a deep convection cloud allows the solubility and the washing out of species, reducing their concentration. Rainfalls play a major role in solubility and washing out acids, peroxides and radicals in this region.     

Integrated analysis of the effects of agricultural management on nitrogen fluxes at landscape scale

The integrated modelling system INITIATOR was applied to a landscape in the northern part of the Netherlands to assess current nitrogen fluxes to air and water and the impact of various agricultural measures on these fluxes, using spatially explicit input data on animal numbers, land use, agricultural management, meteorology and soil. Average model results on NH₃ deposition and N concentrations in surface water appear to be comparable to observations, but the deviation can be large at local scale, despite the use of high resolution data. Evaluated measures include: air scrubbers reducing NH₃ emissions from poultry and pig housing systems, low protein feeding, reduced fertilizer amounts and low-emission stables for cattle. Low protein feeding and restrictive fertilizer application had the largest effect on both N inputs and N losses, resulting in N deposition reductions on Natura 2000 sites of 10% and 12%, respectively.     

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Simulated management effects on ammonia emissions from field applied manure

A need exists to improve the utilization of manure nutrients by minimizing NH₃ emissions from land application of manure. Management strategies to reduce NH₃ emissions are available; however, few have been validated under Canadian conditions. A well tested and accurate simulation model, however, can help overcome this challenge by determining appropriate management strategies for a given set of field conditions.