A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

随机模拟在常州运河水质规划中的应用

以常州运河的水质规划为实例,讨论了确定性水质模型的随机模拟。讨论中引进了主观概率和客观概率的概念,用泰勒级数确定客观概率分布,用可能最大机率法估计主观概率分布,并给出了在实施不同规划方案时的水质概率曲线和水质达标的保证率。计算结果表明,使水质恶化的各种随机因素的作用不容忽视,各种水污染治理措施只能降低水质超标的风险水平。     

单一震源地震发生的等效物理模型

建立了模拟单一潜在震源区地震孕育和发生的等效物理模型，给出了通过调整各次地震之间断层位移速率来拟合已有地震序列的方法。通过考虑模型参数的不确定性，提出了在未来一定年限内潜在震源区发生震级在不同震级段的概率预报方法。通过两种等效物理模型的对比，本文认为就工程地震危险性评定而言，可用简单的滑块－弹簧模型代替滑块－弹粘塑性模型     

千岛湖溶解氧的动态分布特征及其影响因素分析

基于2011~2012年1~12月千岛湖6个站点的溶解氧浓度实时监测数据,分析了千岛湖溶解氧的垂直分布以及时空分布特征,并探讨了影响水体溶解氧动态分布特征的影响因子.结果表明,溶解氧分布特征有明显的垂向差异以及季节差异.冬季,平均溶解氧值较高,除大坝前站点,其余各站点溶解氧无显著垂向差异;夏季,溶解氧垂向差异显著大于春秋两季.水深较深的小金山、三潭岛和大坝前站点其夏季溶解氧最大值出现在真光层,分别达到11.59、12.52和10.96 mg·L-1.千岛湖表层溶解氧最大值出现在春季,而最小值出现在秋季.相关性分析结果表明,溶解氧与水温、pH、叶绿素a浓度的相关性存在季节性差异.夏季,水温与溶解氧存在极其显著的线性相关,温度热力分层是影响溶解氧在夏季垂直分布的关键因素.春夏季,pH、叶绿素a浓度与溶解氧的相关系数较高,主要与浮游植物光合作用有关.     

春、夏季长江口及其邻近海域溶解N2O的分布和海-气交换通量

分别于2012年3月和7月对长江口及其邻近海域进行了调查,对水体中溶解氧化亚氮(N2O)的分布及海-气交换通量进行了研究.结果表明,春季长江口及其邻近海域表层海水中溶解N2O浓度范围为9.34~49.08 nmol·L-1,平均值为(13.27±6.40)nmol·L-1.夏季表层溶解N2O浓度范围为7.27~27.81 nmol·L-1、平均值为(10.62±5.03)nmol·L-1.两航次表、底层海水中溶解N2O浓度相差不大.长江口溶解N2O浓度由近岸向外海逐渐降低,受陆源输入影响显著.溶解N2O浓度高值出现在长江口最大浑浊带附近,这主要是由于水体中较高的硝化速率造成的.温度是影响N2O分布的另一个重要因素,对溶解N2O浓度有双重作用.春季和夏季表层海水中N2O饱和度范围分别为86.9%~351.3%和111.7%~396.0%,平均值分别为(111.5±41.4)%和(155.9±68.4)%,大部分站位处于过饱和状态.利用LM86、W92和RC01公式分别计算了长江口及其邻近海域N2O的海-气交换通量,春季分别为(3.2±10.9)、(5.5±19.3)和(12.2±52.3)μmol·(m2·d)-1,夏季分别为(7.3±12.4)、(12.7±20.4)和(20.4±35.9)μmol·(m2·d)-1,初步估算出长江口及其邻近海域的年平均释放量分别为0.6×10-2Tg·a-1(LM86)、1.1×10-2Tg·a-1(W92)、2.0×10-2Tg·a-1(RC01).长江口及其邻近海域虽然只占全球海洋总面积的0.02%,但其释放的N2O占全球海洋释放量的0.06%,表明长江口及其邻近海域是产生和释放N2O的活跃区域.     

Spatial distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in an e-waste dismantling region in Southeast China: Use of apple snail (Ampullariidae) as a bioindicator

Fengjiang is a large e-waste dismantling site located in southeast China. In this paper, apple snail and soil samples were collected from this e-waste dismantling site and 25 vicinal towns to investigate the contamination status, spatial distributions and congener patterns of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Total PCB concentrations in apple snails (3.78-1812 ng g⁻¹ dry weight (dw)) were significant higher than that in soil samples (0.48-90.1 ng g⁻¹ dw). PBDE (excluding BDE 209) concentrations in apple snail and soil samples ranged from 0.09 to 27.7 ng g⁻¹ dw and 0.06 to 31.2 ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. Concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs in snails and soils correlated negatively with the distance from Fengjiang. Both the concentrations and profiles of the pollutants were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) between the snail and soil samples, indicating the suitability of apple snail as a reliable bioindicator for PCBs and PBDEs contamination in this region. Relatively high concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs at locations far from e-waste dismantling sites implied that these pollutants have been transported to surrounding regions.     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.     

The effects of scale and spatial heterogeneities on diffusion in volcanic breccias and basalts: Amchitka Island, Alaska

Knowledge of the factors that influence the diffusion of contaminants, such as the diffusivity and the connected porosity, is crucial to modeling the long-term fate and transport of contaminants in subsurface systems with small or negligible advective flow, such as in fractured crystalline rock. Fractured rock is naturally heterogeneous, and hence, understanding the diffusivity of a molecule through this material (or the formation factor of the medium) becomes a complex problem, with critical concerns about the scale of laboratory measurements and about the spatial variability of these measurements relative to the scale needed for fate and transport modeling. This study employed both electrical and tracer-based laboratory methods to investigate the effects of scale and pore system connectivity on the diffusivity for volcanic matrix rock derived from the study site, a former underground nuclear test site at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The results of these investigations indicate a relatively well-connected pore system with scale effects generally limited to approximately 6 cm lengths and well-correlated to observed heterogeneous features. An important conclusion resulting from this study, however, is that there is a potential for the estimated diffusivity to be misrepresented by an order of magnitude if multiple samples or longer sample lengths are not used. Given the relatively large number of measurements resulting from these investigations, an analysis of the probability density function (PDF) of the diffusivity was possible. The PDF of the diffusivity was shown to generally follow a normal distribution for individual geologic layers. However, when all of the geologic layers are considered together, the distribution of the subsurface as a whole was shown to follow a lognormal distribution due to the order of magnitude differences amongst the layers. An understanding of these distributions is essential for future stochastic modeling efforts.     

自动喷水灭火系统喷水强度概率分布特性及其控火性能研究

喷水强度是体现自动喷水灭火系统控火能力的重要参数,具有不均匀性和不确定性.传统的喷水强度设计主要考虑喷头的流量和保护面积,没有考虑其分布特性,对系统控火性能的影响.因此本文将喷水强度分布特性引入自动喷水灭火系统的控火性能研究.以公称口径为15 mm的传统下垂型玻璃球洒水喷头的喷水强度分布实验为基础,建立了包含径向距离和喷头工作压力等参数的喷水强度分布模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法获得了喷水强度的概率分布特性.参照不同危险等级场控火所需的喷水强度参数和不同喷头开启个数下的有效控火百分比,分析了喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能的影响.研究结果表明,喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能有重要影响,随径向距离的增加,喷水强度出现较小值的概率增大,控火性能下降,在某些危险较大的场所不能达到控火作用.对于同一危险等级场所,控火性能随着喷头安装间距减小而增强.研究方法可为合理评估喷头适用范围、优化喷头布置提供参考.     

基于正交试验响应面法的烟气层概率分布计算

为计算随机参数下火灾烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布,该文提出了基于正交试验响应面的可靠度计算方法。通过正交试验表确定分析计算参数组,并借助火灾动力学分析软件计算不同参数组下烟气层的温度和厚度响应,进一步拟合出输入参数和输出参数的响应面函数,在此基础上结合验算点法计算烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布,算例分析表明该方法具有计算精度高、计算量小的特点。