模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Using culturomics and social media data to characterize wildlife consumption

Wildlife provides food, medicine, clothing, and other necessities for humans, but overexploitation can disrupt the sustainability of wildlife resources and severely threaten global biodiversity. Understanding the characteristics of consumer behavior is helpful for wildlife managers and policy makers, but the traditional survey methods are laborious and time-consuming. In contrast, culturomics may more efficiently identify the features of wildlife consumption. As a case study of the culturomics approach, we examined tiger bone wine consumption in China based on social media and Baidu search engine data. Tiger bone wine is one of the most purchased tiger products; its consumption is closely related to tiger poaching, which greatly threatens wild tiger survival. We searched a popular social media website for the term “tiger bone wine” and focused on posts that were originally created from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2018. We filtered and classified posts related to the purchase, sale, or consumption of tiger bone wine and extracted information on providers, consumption motivations, year of production, and place of origin of the tiger bone wines based on the texts and photos of these posts. We found 756 posts related to tiger bone wine consumption, 113 of which mentioned providers of tiger bone wine, including friends (53%), elder relatives (37%), peer relatives (7%), and others (3%). Out of the 756 posts, 266 indicated the motivations of tiger bone wine consumption. Tiger bone wines were consumed as a tonic (34%), medicine (23%), game product (30%), and a symbol of wealth (28%). Some posts indicated ≥2 consumption motivations. These findings were consistent with the search queries from Baidu index. Such information could help develop targeted strategies for tiger conservation. The culturomics approach illustrated by our study is a rapid and cost-efficient way to characterize wildlife consumption.     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

矿热炉炉壳安装作业危险性分析

为减少事故损失,必须对矿热炉安装施工危险源进行分析。基于此,对矿热炉安装工序中最重要工序炉壳安装应用作业危险性分析进行分析。将炉壳安装作业分成3大部分,用鱼刺图分析方法进行分析,总结出矿热炉炉壳安装中事故发生的主要原因并提出对策措施,以预防和减少事故的发生。     

情感诉求对交通安全广告效果的影响

为检验交通公益广告中情感诉求变化对广告效果的影响,采用试验法操作广告情感诉求类型,使用眼动技术和Go/no-go联想测验(GNAT),通过比较不同效价和唤醒度的情感诉求广告对受众的注意力和内隐态度的影响,评估交通安全广告情感诉求类型的说服效果。研究发现:被试对低唤醒广告文字区的眼动注视时间和注视点个数显著长于/多于对高唤醒广告文字区的注视时间和注视点个数;被试观看高唤醒消极的广告后,正确驾驶行为的积极态度显著下降,而低唤醒消极/高唤醒积极/低唤醒积极的公益广告对于被试的内隐态度的改变没有显著差异。结果表明,高唤醒度积极广告能够提升受众的注意力,而高唤醒度消极广告则会损害受众对正确驾驶行为的内隐态度。     

Effect of deuterium-depleted water on reproduction of rainbow trout

During the artificial reproduction of salmonides, the fecundity can be increased either by improving the viability of spermatozoa, or by extending the time period during which a roe micropile remains open, thus allowing its fecundation. Practically, this can be achieved by the use of some fertilising techniques suitable for fish species. Here, we show that the reproduction of rainbow trout in a 1:1 solution of deuterium-depleted water and distilled water led to a significant increase in survival of roes during their embryonic development. Moreover, the addition of glucose and fructose into the deuterium-depleted fertilising solutions led to a further increase in roe survival during embryonic development. The increase in survival is mainly explained by an increase in the motility of spermatozoa.     

中国可持续发展综合评价研究

可持续发展作为一个动态、开放的复杂巨系统。人口、资源、经济、环境和科技构成了其关键要素。本文基于PREEST系统模型。首先提出了一套中国可持续发展综合评价指标体系：同时。借助于主成分分析法和隶属度分析法。就中国1987～2001年度的综合发展指数与协调发展指数进行了实证分析；最后。基于研究成果。对中国未来的可持续发展提出了若干政策建议。     

岷江上游崩塌滑坡分布规律研究

岷江为长江—级支流，上游长３３０ｋｍ，自１９８６年以来，发生崩塌滑坡２００余处，体积约２．１亿ｍ￣３。作者研究了岷江上游崩塌滑坡的分布规律。采用统计指标法，将岷江上游分为三种不同的崩塌滑坡分布密度区：①ＵＸＳ．高密度区；②ＭＸＳ，中密度区；③ＬＸＳ＿３低密度区。