生物基聚合物PHBV和PLA复合材料在不同介质中的生物降解及其影响因素

传统工艺的塑料生产不仅依赖石油资源的持续开发利用,同时给环境造成了前所未有的压力,近年来生物基聚合物（聚（3-羟基-3-戊酸酯）-PHBV,聚乳酸-PLA）日渐成为传统石油基塑料的替代产品.本文采用呼吸测试手段,旨在揭示均质复合材料在不同环境介质（土壤、熟化堆肥、水体）条件下及有机添加剂（木质素）,无机添加剂（蒙脱石）和天然有机物链增长剂（Joncryl）作用下的生物降解特征.结果表明：当链增长剂Joncryl添加量为5%时,对所有介质PHBV和PLA复合材料产生显著抑制作用.Joncryl添加量为0.2%时,未对所测样品的生物降解行为产生干扰作用.在熟化堆肥介质中,PLA复合材料比PHBV基质混合物的生物降解速率明显降低.有机木质纤维添加剂（榛子壳粉末）单独在聚合物中添加或者和链增长剂Joncryl以及非有机添加剂（Dellite72T）共同作用下都可促进PLA聚合物中各组分的相容连接性.实验结果表明,新型添加剂在不同介质中以二元或三元添加的方式对生物降解过程产生重要影响,该研究将为新型材料使用后的生物降解效应提供理论依据.     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

林地面积增加提高了农户营林积极性吗?——基于9省1 504个农户数据的倾向值匹配分析

论文利用9省1 504个农户调研数据,实证检验了新一轮集体林改后林地面积增加对农户营林积极性的因果效应。考虑到农户对林地经营面积决策的内生性问题,采用倾向值匹配方法对选择性偏差进行控制。匹配后,处理组和控制组在多个标准上均通过了平衡性检验。结果显示,林地面积增加确实促进了农户营林积极性的提高,但这是一个缓慢的动态调整过程。其中,资本投入强度在2010年以后才逐步表现为显著增加,增长率约为25%~27%,2013年进一步强化为28%~34%。资本投入强度的增加主要是由化肥和农药投入增加引起的,对种苗的投入强度并没有显著改善。这种差异说明,新一轮林改提高了农户的森林经营和管护积极性,但对造林行为的影响有限。同时农户并没有因为林地面积增加而显著提高劳动力的投入强度。这种资本对劳动的替代与农户的非农就业行为密切相关。     

Understanding trust development in negotiations: An interdependent approach

What affects the way that trust develops in negotiations? In two studies, we used an actor–partner interdependence model to investigate how both negotiators' trust propensity prior to the negotiation and two types of behavior during the negotiation affect negotiators' trust development. Study 1 demonstrated that both focal negotiators' (actors') and their counterparts' (partners') trust propensity were positively associated with negotiators' trust development. Study 2 showed that actors' and partners' trust propensity had an indirect effect on trust development via both actors' and partners' negotiation behaviors. Negotiators' trust propensity positively affected their use of Q&A (questions and answers about interests) and negatively affected their use of S&O (substantiation about positions and single‐issue offers). Actors and partners' negotiation behaviors in turn affected their own and their partners' trust development. Our studies propose and test a model to understand how negotiators' trust propensity and negotiation behaviors affect the development of trust in negotiation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国资源型城市转型对劳动力需求的影响

资源部门的自强机制导致城市人力资本集中于资源型产业,进而造成资源型城市中低技能劳动者增多,使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。因此,资源型城市转型可能会导致城市面临失业问题。使用倾向得分匹配与双重差分结合的方法,探讨了《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划（2013—2020年）》对资源型城市劳动力需求的影响。为验证该影响的内在机制,分别根据教育水平和制造业占比对城市进行三重差分回归。结果显示：城市转型导致资源型城市劳动力需求下降6.9%;成熟型和衰退型城市的转型是导致需求下降的主要原因;检验发现,教育水平更高或制造业占比更高的城市受转型政策的影响更小,从而可以从侧面证明资源部门的自强机制使新兴产业对当地劳动力需求下降。     

农地流转对农地与劳动力资源利用效率的影响——基于甘肃省农户调查数据的实证研究

本研究采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）分别就农地流转对农地、农业劳动力、非农劳动力和总劳动力资源利用效率的影响进行了分析。结果表明,农户的农地转入和转出行为都能有效提高总劳动力资源利用效率,而农地转出行为在一定程度上降低了农地资源利用效率。农地转入户的总劳动力和农业劳动力资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户分别高2026.153元/人和4844.289元/人,两组农户间的农地资源利用效率差异不显著;农地转出户的总劳动力和非农劳动力资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户分别高3315.577元/人和2581.883元/人,其农地资源利用效率比未参与流转的农户低466.488元/亩。因此,农地流转不一定会提高农地资源利用效率,但有利于促进农村劳动力专业化,从而提高农村总劳动力资源利用效率。     

Are soil conservation technologies “win‐win?” A case study of Anjeni in the north‐western Ethiopian highlands

This study measures the impact of fanya juu terraces on the net value of crop income in a high‐rainfall area in the Ethiopian highlands using cross‐sectional multiple plot observations. Using propensity score matching methods we find that the net value of crop income for plots with fanya juu terraces is lower than for plots without fanya juu terraces. This finding makes it difficult to avoid concluding that while the technologies might reduce soil erosion and associated off‐site effects, they do so at the expense of poor farmers in the Ethiopian highlands. Therefore, fanya juu terraces cannot be characterized as a “win‐win” measure to reduce soil erosion. New agricultural technologies need to be profitable to the farmer if they are to be adopted and sustained.     

绿色防控技术对稻农经济收益的影响及其作用机制

中国农业正在向绿色发展转变,绿色防控技术在确保粮食安全和保护生态环境方面发挥着重要作用。文章基于四川省623户水稻种植户的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配法消除了样本选择性偏差,分析了绿色防控技术对农户经济收益的影响及其作用机制,并对研究结果进行了一系列的稳健性检验。研究结果表明:①绿色防控技术的采纳能够显著改善稻农的经济收益。与未采纳绿色防控技术的状态相比,采纳绿色防控技术能够使农户每亩水稻的毛收入增加104.96%,每亩水稻的净利润增加40.45%。②从作用机制上看,采纳绿色防控技术使稻农获得了更高的市场溢价,同时有利于激励稻农扩大水稻种植规模,并增加对农地的投入,包括提高有机肥和种子的投入费用。③尽管采纳绿色防控技术带来了一定的消极影响,即提高了病虫害损失率,导致一定程度的减产,但整体而言,采纳绿色防控技术所带来的价格溢价弥补了因病虫害引致的产量损失,改善了稻农的经济收益。④绿色防控技术对稻农经济收益的影响会由于教育水平的差异以及互联网的应用而存在明显的异质性。最后,研究从加大农村人力资本投入、完善农村互联网设施、强化绿色防控技术政策支持以及加强对农用化学投入品的监管等四个方面提出对策建议。     

Sustainable development in East Africa: impact evaluation of regional agricultural development projects in Burundi,Kenya, Rwanda,Tanzania, and Uganda

Investments in agricultural technologies, capacity building and policy harmonization are needed to support sustainable development across Africa. Regional development projects can facilitate the adoption of agricultural technologies and innovations across nation-state borders and generate benefits for shared prosperity. This paper uses panel data from 1,160 smallholder households including beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries from five countries in East Africa - Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. From a pool of over 90 projects implemented over a span of 15 years, 23 regional projects are included in this study. The major economic benefits to smallholder participants are higher crop productivity and income, access to adaptable technologies, access to markets, higher livestock and milk production, gender equality, enhanced food security, resilience and capacity building for uptake and scaling up of future innovation platforms. For example, the adoption of low-cost tissue culture banana by the beneficiaries increased their incomes by 15% in Rwanda while the adoption of appropriate land and water management technologies increased the potato yields from 2.8 tons (USD 2,840/ha) to over 7.5 tons (USD 7,410/ha) in Kenya. The beneficiaries ensured value added to commodities like bananas (for export) and orange-fleshed sweet potatoes (a nutrition-sensitive intervention for enhancing domestic intake of vitamin A) in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Additionally, milk production increased from 6 to 11 L per cow per day in Uganda and from 6 to 8 L per cow per day in Tanzania, with increases in sales generating USD 115 per cow per month above the non-beneficiaries. These results are supported by previous studies on technology adoption, investments in agriculture and well-being outcomes. Our findings with the higher farm income Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimator for the female beneficiaries compared to male beneficiaries might have important implications for investing in regional development projects that will close the gender gap in agricultural productivity in Africa. Regional projects can also support post-conflict development efforts for food security and peace in fragile contexts such as in Burundi. Our findings might serve as an input to the African Union's Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, localization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals related to food security and agriculture in Africa and an input to monitoring, evaluation and learning.     

A study of stopping propensity at matured red light camera T-intersections

PROBLEM: This paper evaluates the stopping propensity of drivers at matured in-service red light camera (RLC) signalized T-intersections after a number of years of camera operation. METHOD: A special-purpose data logger working in conjunction with loop sensors was used to gather traffic parameters, vehicle stopping/crossing movements, and signal phases at camera (treatment) and noncamera (comparison) approaches. Logistic modeling was employed to determine the stopping/crossing decisions of civilian vehicle drivers in response to the onset of yellow (amber) with traffic and the associated situational and behavioral variables, including their interactions. SUMMARY: The propensity to stop at camera approaches was about 17 times more than at noncamera approaches. This finding strongly affirmed the positive effect of RLC in encouraging drivers to stop. The likelihood to stop was about 6.5 times higher for an approach that faces an opposing right-turn conflict immediately after the onset of red. Higher stopping propensity was also more prevalent during weekdays and in periods of low traffic volumes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The findings provided an objective measure on the effectiveness of RLC that would be useful to evaluate intersections for camera installation as well as on the implementation and operational aspects of RLC program.