新冠肺炎疫情期间我国居民佩戴口罩防护行为研究

口罩作为阻隔病毒传染的物理方式之一,其能阻断病原体经飞沫传播,同时具有双向隔离保护作用.佩戴口罩对于公众防范新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）感染的风险和维持人体基本健康具有重要意义.为了解新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情期间我国居民佩戴口罩的行为模式特征,基于新冠肺炎疫情期间我国人群环境暴露行为模式调查,分析全国31个省（自治区、直辖市）居民在新冠肺炎疫情期间佩戴口罩的行为特征,并探讨不同潜在风险人群佩戴口罩行为模式的差异性.结果表明:①在新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国人群外出佩戴口罩的比例在99%以上,显著高于非疫情期间的口罩佩戴率（16.05%）,其中,医务人员以及与人群广泛接触群体的口罩佩戴率最高（100%）.②居民以仅佩戴医用外科口罩、仅佩戴一次性使用医用口罩以及佩戴医用外科口罩和一次性使用医用口罩3种模式为主,占31种口罩佩戴模式的60%以上.③新冠肺炎疫情期间,不同职业人群、不同所属人群以及不同疫情地区人群佩戴口罩的比例均存在显著差异.④新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国居民佩戴口罩的更换频次多为累计使用时长4 h更换一次和累计使用时长24 h更换一次.⑤人群外出佩戴口罩的比例随新冠肺炎疫情严重程度的升高而增加.尽管新冠肺炎疫情分布特征和管控措施存在差异,但居民佩戴口罩行为均表现良好,其中居住地不存在疑似病例的人群比居住地存在疑似病例的人群的口罩佩戴率更高,说明人群佩戴口罩行为与疫情的发展可能存在一定的相互作用.研究显示,新冠肺炎疫情期间我国人群佩戴口罩这一防护行为总体执行较好.      

战略环境评价在环境与发展综合决策中的作用

建立环境与发展综合决策机制是加强宏观环境管理的着眼点和突破口，其中战略环境评价（SEA）是重要工具，回顾了SEA的概念及发展，从技术支持，运行框架和长远效益几方面论述了SEA所能发挥的核心作用。划分SEA的不同工作模式，阐述其综合决策特征，归纳SEA的成功因素，提出我国开展SEA的建议。     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

蚌埠市环境监测信息管理系统的开发实例

使用环境监测信息管理系统可以提高环境监测站数据处理能力,帮助其实现规划目标,并利用其从全局出发辅助环境管理决策.目前一般采用生命周期法来进行开发,它的使用标志着一个组织的计算机应用程度,因此建立环境监测信息管理系统是大势所趋.MIS理论上应和监测站一同建立、发展.     

城市给水网系统的故障风险评价决策技术

最小割集方法是评价网络系统可靠性和风险的一种有效方法，基于最小割集理论在城市复杂给水网系统中的推广应用，建立了城市给水网系统的故障风险计算评价决策模型，并通过自行编制的程序，进行了相关的实例分析。结果表明，基于最小割集方法的城市供水管网故障风险评价决策技术是科学、合理、有效的，具有很好的推广价值。     

基于粗糙集理论的路段交通事故多发点成因分析

交通事故多为多种原因综合造成且具有不确定性。判别各因素对于引发交通事故的影响程度存在困难,因此,需要引入不确定性分析方法。基于粗糙集理论具有处理不精确、不确定与不完全数据的优势,是一种先进的并处于不断发展的不确定性分析和推理方法。笔者提出路段上交通事故成因分析的模型和方法。具体做法是,根据该路段事故多发点的统计数据建立基于粗糙集理论的决策表,再利用粗糙集模型的简约算法求出各个因素的重要性,从而判断各因素对交通事故的影响程度大小,为决策提供依据。以算例说明模型和方法的可用性。     

A multi-objective optimisation approach to water management

The management of river basins is complex especially when decisions about environmental flows are considered in addition to those concerning urban and agricultural water demand. The solution to these complex decision problems requires the use of mathematical techniques that are formulated to take into account conflicting objectives. Many optimization models exist for water management systems but there is a knowledge gap in linking bio-economic objectives with the optimum use of all water resources under conflicting demands. The efficient operation and management of a network of nodes comprising storages, canals, river reaches and irrigation districts under environmental flow constraints is challenging. Minimization of risks associated with agricultural production requires accounting for uncertainty involved with climate, environmental policy and markets. Markets and economic criteria determine what crops farmers would like to grow with subsequent effect on water resources and the environment. Due to conflicts between multiple goal requirements and the competing water demands of different sectors, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework was developed to analyze production targets under physical, biological, economic and environmental constraints. This approach is described by analyzing the conflicts that may arise between profitability, variable costs of production and pumping of groundwater for a hypothetical irrigation area.     

How farmers develop local ecological knowledge for on-farm tree management: The perspectives of some farming communities of Ghana

Scientific insights into what it means to manage on-farm trees by local farmers, is an essential step towards documenting local ecological knowledge for sustainable landscape management. A study was therefore conducted in the Kumawu Forest District in the Ashanti Region of Ghana to assess how farmers conceptualise on-farm tree management and develop local knowledge for it. Using a case study approach, data were collected through informal interviews and focus group discussions with 120 farmers drawn from 15 communities who were involved in the management of three cropping systems; cocoa, maize and cassava-cocoyam-plantain mix. It was observed that the farmers regard on-farm tree management as a continuous process which occurs in three phases of the farming cycle; land preparation, crop cultivation and fallow management. For each of the three phases, farmers are guided by specific principles that ensure enough light penetration in-between tree crowns in the land preparation phase, suitable spacing between trees and crops in the crop cultivation phase and adequate tree regeneration in the fallow phase. The decisions made during the selection of tree species, spacing of trees adjudged suitable for any particular cropping system and recruitment of saplings prior to the fallow phase of farming constitute tree management. Farmers develop tree management knowledge by studying the physical characteristics of species, matching them to ecological functions they could perform and how they are likely to respond to treatments meant to control or enhance their development. Species are then subjected to trial and recommended or otherwise.     

城市震后救灾系统救灾决策研究

论述了震后救灾系统模型及评估方法,采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟和最优化技术理论,建立了城市震后救灾、救护、运输网络系统的可靠性分析方法和以失效概率为控制参数的最佳路径优化方法,并以某城市网络系统为例通过分析研究,给出了震后救灾决策方法。     

Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.