Pilot sample risk analysis for underground coal mine fires and explosions using MSHA citation data

After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state.     

Biological Pollutants: Alien Fishes in Mountain Lakes

Many lakes in the national parks of the Canadian Rockies were stocked with alien fish species in the early to mid 20th century. Changes to Parks Canada's mandate require the original communities of these lakes to be restored. We document the changes to invertebrate communities caused by the stocking of alien fishes into three fishless alpine lakes, and describe the results of two restoration experiments, one the reintroduction of Hesperodiaptomus arcticus, a planktonic predator that had been eliminated from Snowflake Lake by stocked fish, and the other the removal of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from Bighorn Lake. In both cases, there were great changes to the zooplankton communities, which required several years to complete, probably because of the cold water and unproductive nature of the lakes. Many of the invertebrate species extirpated by stocked alien fishes co-exist with native fish species in nearby lakes. Possible reasons are discussed.     

An extension of Multiple Greek Letter method for common cause failures modelling

Common cause failure describes a condition where several components share the same source of failure that causes them to fail or become unavailable simultaneously. The objective of this paper is to present an improved approach to common cause failure modelling within reliability analyses. The currently used methods allow one component to share common characteristics with only one group of components, which may be affected by the same source of failure. Therefore, an improved method was developed, where components can be assigned to several groups of components that are susceptible to faulty operation with respect to their similar characteristics. A mathematical derivation of the method is presented and the theory is applied to smaller theoretical samples and to a simplified real example. The results show that the new method enables a more detailed reliability analysis. The results prove that consideration of common cause failures using the improved method may decrease the system reliability compared to traditional common cause failure consideration. The system reliability decreases more, if the redundant components have more similarities and are therefore assigned to several common cause failure groups.     

基于灰色聚类法的地铁运营安全趋势分析

为评估地铁运营安全水平,掌握地铁运营风险变化趋势,采用灰色聚类法对某地铁线路运营一年以来每个月份的安全水平进行了分级评价。选取对地铁日常运营具有重要影响的设备设施故障作为评价指标,评价方法挖掘地铁运营以来的历史数据信息,体现了设备设施故障变化的时间特性,减少了安全评价中的主观性。将地铁运营安全水平分为五个安全等级,选取15%、35%、50%、65%、85%作为各安全等级的累积百分频率特征点,建立白化权函数得到各评价指标的灰类白化值。结合各设备设施的指标权重,得到了地铁线路运营一年来每个月份的安全等级情况。该方法为分析地铁运营安全趋势提供了参考。     

Modeling water and sediment contamination of Lake Pontchartrain following pump-out of Hurricane Katrina floodwater

Levee failure and overtopping as a result of Hurricane Katrina caused major flooding of New Orleans, Louisiana. Floodwaters, which were contaminated with heavy metals, organic chemicals, and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB), were pumped into neighboring Lake Pontchartrain during dewatering. The impact of levee failure on water and benthic sediment concentrations in the lake was investigated by applying a numerical water quality model coupled to a three-dimensional, numerical hydrodynamic model. The model was used to compute water and benthic sediment concentrations throughout the lake for lead, arsenic, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE), and water concentrations for FCB. Computed concentrations resulting from actual pumped discharges with levee failure and overtopping were compared to computed concentrations resulting from pumped discharges without levee failure or overtopping, and concentrations from both sets of conditions were compared to ecological water and sediment quality screening guideline values. The model indicated that incremental increases above pre-Katrina benthic sediment concentrations are about a factor of 10 greater with dewatering of the floodwaters than with dewatering of storm water without flooding. However, these increases for the metals are small relative to pre-Katrina concentrations. The results showed that the ecological screening-level sediment quality guideline values were exceeded for BaP and DDE in areas near the south shoreline of the lake as a result of floodwater pump-out, whereas, this was not the case for storm water removal without flooding. The model showed that lake water column concentrations should be about the same during both dewatering conditions regardless of whether there is flooding or not.     

澜沧江梯级水坝库区沉积物重金属和营养盐污染特征及评价

为研究梯级水坝运行条件下沉积物中重金属和营养盐的污染状况,于2016年对澜沧江漫湾和大朝山梯级水坝库区表层沉积物中重金属(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn)和营养盐(总有机碳TOC、总氮TN)的污染特征展开了调查,并采用潜在生态风险指数(RI)、有机指数(OI)、有机氮百分数(ONP)、TOC/TN和Pearson相关分析评价了梯级水坝库区沉积物污染状况及空间分布特征.结果表明,沿着库区河流纵向梯度,重金属和营养盐污染均表现为坝前静水区相对较高的空间分布格局.重金属潜在生态风险指数(RI)评价结果表明,上游漫湾库区重金属生态风险(I～III级)总体高于下游大朝山库区(I～II级);而营养盐污染程度则表现为下游大朝山库区高于上游漫湾库区的分布格局.两库区沉积物有机质主要由水库水体产生,漫湾库区坝前静水区雨季有机质来源主要为陆源.Pearson相关分析表明,沉积物重金属生态风险与营养盐污染的来源具有一定的空间差异性.梯级水坝工程对沉积物的重金属和营养盐污染具有显著的累积和拦截效应.     

Attack vulnerability of self-organizing networks

There are several self-organizing networks in the real world, and these networks severely affect the development of the modern society. This paper investigates the vulnerability of self-organizing networks subject to malicious attacks according to a new framework. Assuming the initial load of node i as L_i=αk_i+(1-α)∑_j∈Γik_j with k_i and Γ_i being the degree and the set of neighbor nodes of the node i, where α is a tunable parameter and control the strength of the initial loads of nodes. The node with the maximum degree is considered as the attacked node, and with the changes of the parameter α, cascading failures will be investigated in this paper. Local redistribution rule has been adopted to study the cascading breakdowns of the US power grid and IEEE-118 networks. Additionally, the capacity of the node i is defined as C_i = (1 + β)L_i, the critical threshold β_c of the US power grid and IEEE-118 networks will be obtained from the evolutional process of cascading failures. Finally, an optimal design of US power grid network is given in this paper.     

梯级水库对长江水沙过程影响初探

长江中上游干流及主要支流正在进行大规模水电开发,按目前的规划和建设步伐,在未来20~30年,这些河段将形成一系列梯级水库。根据近20年来水文观测和资料统计,初步分析了长江水沙变化情况和发生变化的原因;通过一些已建大型水库的观测资料,分析了水库对泥沙输移规律的影响方式和程度;最后,提出减小梯级水库对长江生态环境影响的对策和建议。分析表明：长江的水沙过程已经发生变化,绝大多数河段输沙量明显减少;梯级水库的建设是输沙量减少的主要因素之一;梯级水库建设不仅使输沙量和径流量减少,而且显著改变了天然河流的水沙过程,给长江中下游及河口地区生态环境带来一定影响。为了减小梯级水库对河流自然属性的影响,必须转变长江治理的思路,由江河治理向科学管理转变,利用洪水冲沙和水库群的优化调度,尽量维持河流的自然属性。     

澜沧江梯级水坝库区大型底栖动物群落结构及水质生物学评价

梯级水电开发虽然可以最大程度地利用河流的水能资源,但同时也是对河流生态系统的大规模扰动.大型底栖动物被认为是开展梯级水坝水生态系统变化和演替研究的指示生物类群.本文选取澜沧江中下游水电基地为研究区,于2016年开展漫湾和大朝山梯级水坝库区大型底栖动物群落采样调查,分析梯级库区大型底栖动物的群落结构和分布格局,基于生物指数(BI)开展水质生物学评价.结果表明:大型底栖动物物种组成以寡毛纲、软体动物门及昆虫纲的摇蚊类为主,优势种则以软体动物门的河蚬占绝对优势;群落密度和生物量分布格局表现为静水区显著高于过渡区;静水区功能摄食群密度组成以收集者(GC)和滤食者(FC)占优势,生物量组成则以滤食者(FC)占优势;ABC曲线和生物指数分析表明,上游漫湾库区群落稳定性及水质优于下游大朝山库区,反映了梯级水坝沿着河流纵向梯度水环境逐渐变差的趋势,澜沧江梯级水坝库区大型底栖动物群落结构、分布格局和库区水质状况受梯级水坝运行影响表现为明显的累积效应和富营养化效应.     

Reduced Density and Nest Survival of Ground‐Nesting Songbirds Relative to Earthworm Invasions in Northern Hardwood Forests

Abstract: European earthworms (Lumbricus spp.) are spreading into previously earthworm‐free forests in the United States and Canada and causing substantial changes, including homogenization of soil structure, removal of the litter layer, and reduction in arthropod abundance and species richness of understory plants. Whether these changes affect songbirds that nest and forage on the forest floor is unknown. In stands with and without earthworms in the Chequamegon‐Nicolet National Forest, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), we surveyed for, monitored nests of, and measured attributes of habitat of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) and Hermit Thrushes (Catharus guttatus), both ground‐dwelling songbirds, and we sampled earthworms at survey points and nests. Bird surveys indicated significantly lower densities of Ovenbirds and Hermit Thrushes in relation to Lumbricus invasions at survey point and stand extents (3.1 and 15–20 ha, respectively). Modeling of Ovenbird nest survival (i.e., the probability that nestlings successfully fledge) indicated that lower survival probabilities were associated with increased sedge cover and decreased litter depth, factors that are related to Lumbricus invasions, possibly due to reduced nest concealment or arthropod abundance. Our findings provide compelling evidence that earthworm invasions may be associated with local declines of forest songbird populations.