车站、机场、码头火灾风险管理定量方法的研究

在对车站、机场、港口等旅客站点火灾风险因数识别的基础上，提出火灾风险定量管理模型，经验和研究证明，该模型十分有效，是火灾风险定量管理的一个有效可行的工具，对火灾风险管理的方法进行了阐述／。     

地铁车站突发客流疏运能力的理论计算与分析

针对车站OB应对亚运会期间大规模突发客流疏导问题,利用理论分析的方法计算不同车站设计方案,包括车站一岛一侧站台设计和一岛站台设计及不同通道设计时的最大疏运能力。计算考虑了车站建筑结构、出入口、闸机口和边门、楼扶梯等通道的数量及通过能力、站台面的容纳能力、列车的装载量、售检票方式、行车交路组织等诸多因素。通过对影响客流疏导的主要控制因素进行能力核算,分别得到了两种站台形式设计方案时的最大疏运能力的理论值。研究结论将有利于解决该车站应对亚运会期间大规模突发客流疏导问题,同时理论分析方法可为其他类似的车站能力设计提供参考。     

Observed LATCH use and misuse characteristics of child restraint systems in seven states

INTRODUCTION: Although the LATCH System (Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children) holds the promise of simplifying the installation of a child restraint system (CRS) to the vehicle's seat, many drivers transporting young children have difficulties using this technology. This paper reports on an observation study of LATCH use and misuse. METHOD: Observations of approximately 1,000 children less than 5 years of age in CRSs, in the back seats of vehicles that were equipped with tether and lower anchors, in seven states. RESULTS: Tethers were used for 51% of the children when the forward-facing CRS had tether straps and the vehicle had tether anchors. Lower anchors were used for 58% of the children when the CRS had lower attachments and the vehicle had lower anchors. The most common tether and lower attachment misuses were loose tether straps (18% of cases) and loose lower attachment installation (30% of the cases), respectively. Vehicle safety belts were used in combination with lower attachments in 20% of all lower anchor installations. CONCLUSION: As more caregivers of young children drive vehicles equipped with LATCH, it will be important to promote the proper installation of CRSs using this technology. LATCH education messages must also emphasize that the lower anchors may not always be the safest choice for CRS attachment -- the safest attachment is the one that results in a tight fit and will be used correctly consistently.     

基于铁路客运的中国城市可达性及类型研究

为探究铁路网络时空压缩效应对城市可达性的影响,基于2009年和2014年铁路列车时刻表数据,结合传统数理统计方法及空间分析方法,对中国地级以上城市可达性及其格局演变进行深入分析。结果表明:(1)铁路客运的数量和类型上均有较大变化,特别是始发列车及动车组的大幅增加及高铁的开通运行,中国城市可达性得到一定程度提升,但城市可达性改善地域差异性显著。(2)北上广三大核心城市在城市可达性等级体系中第一层级地位稳固,交通区位条件的差异使得城市可达性等级体系产生一定变化。(3)中国城市可达性绝对及相对差距均呈现出不断扩大趋势,列车停靠数量的极化效应显著、新增加的高速客运更多地向高等级中心城市集聚,铁路基础设施的建设正在重塑中国生产力格局。(4)从城市功能属性及规模属性视角,以始发列车和停靠列车中位数为临界值,将中国城市划分为高规模高功能、高规模低功能、低规模高功能、低规模低功能等4种类型,并依次分析城市分布特征及成因,为铁路客运的合理配置及交通网络优化布局提供参考。     

分离岛式地铁站可用安全疏散时间计算与比较分析*

为研究大客流地铁车站风险因素,提出车站疏散能力分析的基本要素,结合某分离岛式地下车站,采用规范计算及精细网格模型对可用安全疏散时间进行计算与比较分析。结果表明:楼扶梯的通过效率、车站结构形式、疏散人员的数量及分布情况等因素对仿真模拟的结果产生影响;《地铁安全疏散规范》（GB/T 33668—2017）综合考虑了疏散至楼扶梯入口时间、楼扶梯上平均滞留时间及通道非均匀性偏差时间等,与仿真模拟结果的吻合度较高。研究结果可为国内类似车站的安全疏散设计及运营疏散组织提供参考。     

德国铁路噪声实时监测系统研究现状

分析了德国铁路噪声在线监测的应用背景,介绍了德国铁路噪声实时监测系统的研究现状,包括测量站点的选取原则、技术结构和具体信息,列车声压级曲线时域连续变化图、单次列车通过声压级曲线图、单次列车通过参数表和等效声压级曲线图/表等测量结果的表达方法,以及无效数据的处理方式等,为我国建立铁路噪声自动监测系统提供参考。     

Unintentional non-traffic injury and fatal events: Threats to children in and around vehicles

Objective: There have been substantial reductions in motor vehicle crash–related child fatalities due to advances in legislation, public safety campaigns, and engineering. Less is known about non-traffic injuries and fatalities to children in and around motor vehicles. The objective of this study was to describe the frequency of various non-traffic incidents, injuries, and fatalities to children using a unique surveillance system and database.

Methods: Instances of non-traffic injuries and fatalities in the United States to children 0–14 years were tracked from January 1990 to December 2014 using a compilation of sources including media reports, individual accounts from families of affected children, medical examiner reports, police reports, child death review teams, coroner reports, medical professionals, legal professionals, and other various modes of publication.

Results: Over the 25-year period, there were at least 11,759 events resulting in 3,396 deaths. The median age of the affected child was 3.7 years. The incident types included 3,115 children unattended in hot vehicles resulting in 729 deaths, 2,251 backovers resulting in 1,232 deaths, 1,439 frontovers resulting in 692 deaths, 777 vehicles knocked into motion resulting in 227 deaths, 415 underage drivers resulting in 203 deaths, 172 power window incidents resulting in 61 deaths, 134 falls resulting in 54 deaths, 79 fires resulting in 41 deaths, and 3,377 other incidents resulting in 157 deaths.

Conclusions: Non-traffic injuries and fatalities present an important threat to the safety and lives of very young children. Future efforts should consider complementary surveillance mechanisms to systematically and comprehensively capture all non-traffic incidents. Continued education, engineering modifications, advocacy, and legislation can help continue to prevent these incidents and must be incorporated in overall child vehicle safety initiatives.     

Emergency department visits by pediatric patients sustained as a passenger on a motorcycle

Objective: Currently only 5 out of the 50 states in the United States have laws restricting the age of passengers permitted to ride on a motorcycle. This study sought to characterize the visits by patients under the age of 16 to U.S. emergency departments (EDs) for injuries sustained as a passenger on a motorcycle.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data were obtained from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) for the years 2006 to 2011. Pediatric patients who were passengers on a motorcycle that was involved in a crash were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) External Cause of Injury codes. We also examined gender, age, disposition, regional differences, common injuries, and charges.

Results: Between 2006 and 2011 there were an estimated 9,689 visits to U.S. EDs by patients under the age of 16 who were passengers on a motorcycle involved in a crash. The overall average patient age was 9.4 years, and they were predominately male (54.5%). The majority (85%) of these patients were treated and released. The average charges for discharged patients were $2,116.50 and amounted to roughly $17,500,000 during the 6 years. The average cost for admission was $51,446 per patient and totaled over $54 million. The most common primary injuries included superficial contusions; sprains and strains; upper limb fractures; open wounds of head, neck, and trunk; and intracranial injuries.

Conclusion: Although there were only about 9,700 visits to U.S. EDs for motorcycle crashes involving passengers less than 16 years old for 2006 to 2011, the total cost of visits that resulted in either ED discharge or hospital admission amounted to over $71 million.     

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4–7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas.

Methods: During 4 consecutive school years, 2011–2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P₀), 1–4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P₁), and 4–5 months later (P₂). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process.

The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections.

The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling.

Results: In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P₀ and P₁ (P₀ = 4.8%, P₁ = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P₂ time period (P₂ = 25.7%; P < .001, for P₀ vs. P₂) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P₀ time period and compared to the comparison schools.

Conclusion: Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.     

特大型城市客运交通碳排放与减排对策研究

本文基于对现有城市交通碳排放测算方法的比较分析,以上海市为例,采用IPCC"自下而上"法对特大型城市客运交通CO2排放进行了测算,结果显示:轨道交通是碳排放效率最高的客运方式,出租车最低;客运交通CO2排放总量增长迅速,且碳源结构发生了较大变化;近年客运交通CO2排放增量主要来自私人载客汽车,同时公务交通在客运交通碳排放中始终占较大比重。由此本文认为,控制客运交通碳排放的关键在于对以私人载客汽车和单位载客汽车为主的个体交通的管理和控制,形成以公共交通为主的交通结构。在此基础上,为了将控制碳排放纳入到城市交通政策目标中去,本文就主要城市交通政策对客运交通碳排放产生的影响进行了深入分析,并得出结论:以往的交通供给、需求管理政策对于抑制客运交通碳排放增长的作用有限;而就目前城市空间发展政策的实施效果而言,也不利于降低居民出行的碳排放水平。文章最后分别从交通供给、需求管理以及城市空间角度给出了控制客运交通碳排放的对策。