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危险评价第三维矢量的定性分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
危险评价主要针对危险导致事故发生的可能性与后果严重性进行分析,目的是为拧制危险提供决策依据,但现有的评价矢量并不能完全实现这一目的.可控性的提出完善了评价内容,并在控制对象、控制方案、控制时机等多方面为决策者提供参考,提高了危险评价结果的实用性.  相似文献   
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Objective: In Germany, license restoration after serious or repeated offenses requires a positive medical psychological assessment (MPA), a test to determine the driver's aptitude. Fulfilling the conditions necessary for a positive MPA often takes longer than the period of license revocation, which is perhaps due to the involvement of different personal, organizational, and environmental factors. To optimize the rehabilitation process, the present study analyzed the key aspects of successful rehabilitation after repeated or serious driving offenses.

Methods: After participating in the MPA, 1,631 subjects completed a questionnaire about rehabilitation efforts. The selection of items for this questionnaire was made according to our own prior research, interviews with problem drivers, and the diagnostic criteria for the MPA. Participants were asked when and from whom they obtained certain information and how relevant this information was for their success. In contrast to other studies, which used reoffense rates as a criterion for successful rehabilitation, we used a positive MPA result (positive, negative, or training) as the criterion for success.

Results: Just over half (52%) of the participants considered themselves optimally informed about the rehabilitation process. The others (47.4% of participants) judged the adequacy of information received as less than satisfactory. Offenders who did not partake in counseling before the MPA achieved a successful result only about half as often (37.1%) as those who did (70%) and were around 3 times as likely to have additional courses imposed upon them (21 vs. 7.6%). Of the offenders who received crucial and helpful information at an early stage, 62.4% attained a positive MPA at the first attempt (regardless of having attended any training courses). The success rate for the first attempt rose to 81% for offenders who were well informed at an early stage and participated in counseling before their first MPA.

Conclusion: The results clearly indicate that the provision of relevant information at an early stage combined with counseling has a beneficial influence on success rates for the rehabilitation process (an increase from 37.1 to 81%). As such, we recommend the introduction of obligatory license consultations, offered by MPA experts, involving a status assessment to customize offenders' rehabilitation and thereby provide more or less intensive guidance or coaching depending on offenders' characteristics throughout their progression through the MPA system.  相似文献   

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