洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

情感诉求对交通安全广告效果的影响

为检验交通公益广告中情感诉求变化对广告效果的影响,采用试验法操作广告情感诉求类型,使用眼动技术和Go/no-go联想测验(GNAT),通过比较不同效价和唤醒度的情感诉求广告对受众的注意力和内隐态度的影响,评估交通安全广告情感诉求类型的说服效果。研究发现:被试对低唤醒广告文字区的眼动注视时间和注视点个数显著长于/多于对高唤醒广告文字区的注视时间和注视点个数;被试观看高唤醒消极的广告后,正确驾驶行为的积极态度显著下降,而低唤醒消极/高唤醒积极/低唤醒积极的公益广告对于被试的内隐态度的改变没有显著差异。结果表明,高唤醒度积极广告能够提升受众的注意力,而高唤醒度消极广告则会损害受众对正确驾驶行为的内隐态度。     

ARSENIC CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH RISK PERCEPTIONS IN A RURAL WESTERN U.S. AREA1

ABSTRACT: Churchill County, Nevada, has approximately 23,000 residents, among whom an estimated 13,500 relied on private wells for water supply in 2002. This study examined exposure to arsenic in water supplies among residents with private domestic wells and factors related to householder choice to consume tap water. It compared opinions and concerns about water quality with consumption habits and observed concentrations from tap water samples. The results from 351 households indicated that a majority (75 percent) of respondents consumed tap water and that a minority (38 percent) applied treatment. Approximately 66 percent of those who consumed tap water were exposed to concentrations of arsenic that exceeded 10 ppb. Water consumption was related to application of treatment. Among 98 respondents who were not at all concerned about the health effects of aqueous arsenic, 59 (60 percent) reported consuming tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Conversely, among 86 respondents who were highly concerned about arsenic, 33 (37 percent) consumed tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Results from a national sampling effort showed that 620 of 5,304 private wells sampled (11.7 percent) had arsenic concentrations above 10 ppb. The paradox of awareness of arsenic in water supplies coupled with consumption of aqueous arsenic in concentrations greater than 10 ppb may be common in other parts of the nation. Enhanced educational efforts, especially related to tap water sampling and explanations of efficacy of available treatment, may be useful means of reducing exposure through private water supplies.     

清洁生产运行机制探讨

文章分析了清洁生产的运行机制，认为清洁生产方案的实施受企业、政府、公众、市场和社会环境等五个方面的影响与制约。在此基础上，从我国国情实际出发，讨论了我国在实施清洁生产方案所面临的问题，并从企业、政府、公众、市场和社会等方面给出了相应的对策建议。     

Barriers Beyond the Partners: Bureaucratic and Political Constraints to Implementing Joint Forest Management in Tamil Nadu,India

Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain.     

华北地区沙尘天气垂直气溶胶直接辐射强迫

利用CALIOP数据和SBDART（Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer）辐射传输模式研究了2013~2016年华北地区8d沙尘天气气溶胶及其直接辐射强迫垂直分布特征,分析了气溶胶垂直分布和光学特性对直接辐射强迫的影响.结果表明,气溶胶集中分布在地表及以上3km范围,其中纯净沙尘型和污染沙尘型气溶胶位于上层,污染大陆型气溶胶和烟雾位于下层.大气层顶、地表和大气层的日均气溶胶直接辐射强迫分别是-38.41~-88.44,-74.03~-225.86,9.06~137.42W/m².0~8km高度范围气溶胶直接辐射强迫是负值,且随着高度的增加绝对值逐渐减小.气溶胶垂直分布对大气层顶、地表和大气层的直接辐射强迫影响较小,但对直接辐射强迫垂直分布影响较大,由气溶胶廓线差异造成的同一高度层气溶胶直接辐射强迫最大差值能达到31.18W/m².气溶胶光学厚度和单次散射反照率对直接辐射强迫影响明显.消光能力相同时,吸收性气溶胶对短波太阳光的衰减作用大于散射性气溶胶,后向散射比例大的气溶胶大于后向散射比例小的气溶胶.     

气体中毒窒息事故的环境应急监测

以株洲市攸县某矿业公司"5·7"重大中毒窒息事故的环境应急监测为例，详细阐述了该事故开展应急监测的全过程。针对锁定污染因子、查找污染源、判断污染团的扩散趋势以及监控敏感点的安全等监测目的设计监测方案。通过监测数据分析确定事故特征因子为CO，其周边环境空气中浓度随着与抽风口距离的增加而快速下降，监测到附近居民区环境空气质量未受事故影响。     

应急监测案例分析

叙述了某突发性不明污染源的应急监测经过,探讨了对此类应急监测应采取的措施,并阐述了相应的意见和看法。     

粗苯污染事故应急处理

针对一次苯泄漏事故的应急处理过程、方法进行论述与总结，并分析了事故现场周围地表、地下水中苯污染浓度的变化情况，提出了该类事故的应急措施，以此作为处理同类事故的参考和依据。     

环境保护的两种重要手段-政府决策与公众参与

综述了目前我国环境保护的两种重要手段-政府决策和公众参与的现状及必要性,将政府决策与公众参与结合起来,以推动我国环保事业的进一步发展.