浅谈项目选址的环境可行性论证

对目前项目选址环境可行性论证存在的问题进行了初步分析,并从政策规划的相符性、环境容量的允许性、敏感目标的影响性3个方面探讨了项目选址的环境可行性论证。     

基于农业自然风险综合评价的高标准基本农田建设区划定方法研究

大规模建设高产稳产、旱涝保收的高标准基本农田是当前土地整治的重要任务,论文从分析区域防灾减灾能力入手,将农业生产自然风险综合评价引入高标准基本农田建设区划定,在识别区域主要风险类型的基础上,应用可变模糊集理论,借助GIS 方法,划分综合风险等级,根据风险强度和整治可行性划定高标准基本农田建设区。结合对关中地区的实例分析,研究表明：①使用可变模糊集理论,综合考虑各单因子风险差异,可减少风险定量化的模糊不确定性;②综合风险由致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性共同决定,风险评价结果可为筛选高标准基本农田建设适宜区提供依据;③综合风险等级、集中连片程度和整治潜力共同确定土地整治时序,可为划定高标准基本农田建设区和确定整治规划提供参考。     

安全评价方法在危险废物处置环境风险评价中的应用探讨

对安全评价方法在危险废物处置建设项目环境风险评价中的运用进行初步探索。主要用"工艺过程风险因素分析表"对工艺过程潜在风险性识别;用蒙德法进行源项分析;用池火灾模型、蒸气云爆炸伤害模型对易燃、易爆物质的火灾、爆炸等重大事故后果进行计算,得出人员的伤亡半径和财产损失半径等参数,以便于判断风险的可接受水平。分析结果表明:采用安全评价方法对危险废物处置建设项目进行环境风险评价是适用的、可行的。     

Agenda setting and acid precipitation in the United States

The objective of this research was to analyze the retention of acid precipitation as a viable policy issue on the Congressional agenda during the 1980s. Issue maintenance (a term borrowed from Barbara Nelson's discussion of the four stages associated with agenda decision making) was examined in relation to a set of issue characteristics originally developed by Roger Cobb and Charles Elder, i.e., concreteness, social significance, temporal relevance, complexity, and categorical precedence. Each issue attribute was found to be somewhat useful in explaining the longevity of acid rain as an agenda item although the direction of influence for two factors, complexity and temporal relevance, was contrary to expectations. It was suggested that a conceptual merger of this sort could contribute to the comparative analysis of agenda policy decisions by providing a clearer and more restricted set of decision points to be explained.     

涂层老化评级方法标准中的问题探讨

对新实施的GB/T 1766-2008标准中存在的问题进行了分析与评述,指出起泡等级的数值设置在装饰性涂层综合评级体系中不合理,标准对起泡的要求太低;同时保护性涂层综合评级中对起泡的危害也不够重视。在综合评级的低等级和高等级评价中,对剥落与生锈的要求尺度不统一,低等级对小锈点比较宽容,高等级对大锈点的要求却较严格。标准在确定生锈、开裂、起泡等单项等级时要求不细,给单项等级评定造成困扰。另外,开裂、起泡单项等级的评定指标未量化,不利于提高数据准确性。     

It’s All in the Numbers: Acreage Tallies and Environmental Program Evaluation

Increasingly, performance measurement is being used to hold federal agencies accountable, represent environmental progress, and evaluate the effectiveness of environmental programs. The need to track measurable outputs has created a tendency to present programmatic progress solely by quantifiable data, despite the inherent complexity of natural resource management. Wetlands and fire management programs are two specific environmental arenas that have come to overemphasize the tracking of acreage numbers to validate existing policy direction. In both of these arenas, we find the definition and categorization of "countable" acres to be inconsistent and unreliable. We explore this systemic flaw for both wetlands and fire programs and describe its implications for environmental policy and natural resource management more broadly. We conclude with recommendations for improved performance measurement in these arenas.     

IFTCIP: An Integrated Optimization Model for Environmental Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval-fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained integer programming (IFTCIP) method is developed for supporting environmental management under uncertainty. The IFTCIP improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly incorporated within a general mixed integer linear programming framework. It has advantages in uncertainty reflection, policy investigation, risk assessment, and capacity-expansion analysis in comparison to the other optimization methods. Moreover, it can help examine the risk of violating system constraints and the associated consequences. The developed method is applied to the planning for facility expansion and waste-flow allocation within a municipal solid waste management system. Violations of capacity constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflects tradeoffs between the system cost and the constraint-violation risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for both binary and continuous variables have been generated under different risk levels. They are useful for generating desired decision alternatives with minimized system cost and constraint-violation risk under various environmental, economic, and system-reliability conditions. Generally, willingness to take a higher risk of constraint violation will guarantee a lower system cost; a strong desire to acquire a lower risk will run into a higher system cost.     

Risk-Based Prioritization of Air Pollution Monitoring Using Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Technique

Air pollution monitoring programs aim to monitor pollutants and their probable adverse effects at various locations over concerned area. Either sensitivity of receptors/location or concentration of pollutants is used for prioritizing the monitoring locations. The exposure-based approach prioritizes the monitoring locations based on population density and/or location sensitivity. The hazard-based approach prioritizes the monitoring locations using intensity (concentrations) of air pollutants at various locations. Exposure and hazard-based approaches focus on frequency (probability of occurrence) and potential hazard (consequence of damage), respectively. Adverse effects should be measured only if receptors are exposed to these air pollutants. The existing methods of monitoring location prioritization do not consider both factors (hazard and exposure) at a time. Towards this, a risk-based approach has been proposed which combines both factors: exposure frequency (probability of occurrence/exposure) and potential hazard (consequence).This paper discusses the use of fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique in risk computation and prioritization of air pollution monitoring locations. To demonstrate the application, common air pollutants like CO, NO_x, PM₁₀ and SO_x are used as hazard parameters. Fuzzy evaluation matrices for hazard parameters are established for different locations in the area. Similarly, fuzzy evaluation matrices for exposure parameters: population density, location and population sensitivity are also developed. Subsequently, fuzzy risk is determined at these locations using fuzzy compositional rules. Finally, these locations are prioritized based on defuzzified risk (crisp value of risk, defined as risk score) and the five most important monitoring locations are identified (out of 35 potential locations). These locations differ from the existing monitoring locations.     

基于可变模糊集理论及其模型的水利规划环境影响综合评价

地区水利规划环评处于起步阶段,存在评价形式化、方法单一化以及指标权重确定的主观性较强等问题。针对以往评价中的不足,提出了运用可变模糊集理论及其模型进行综合评价的方法。以江苏省水利发展规划作为研究实例,建立指标体系,采用模糊聚类循环迭代模型进行主客观综合指标权重的计算;从重点工程空间布局角度出发,运用调整后的可变模糊识别模型进行各市环境影响的相对优属度计算。结果表明,全省规划方案的环境影响相对优属度大于现状和零方案,南通市的相对优属度最大,其次是苏州和无锡。与层次分析法进行对比,该理论及其模型适用于地区水利规划环境影响综合评价     

GJB 150.3A高温试验方法的应用及分析

介绍了GJB150．3A高温试验方法的由来以及与GJB150．3之间的联系和区别。重点对该方法中试验项目的剪裁、试验程序的选择、试验条件的确定以及试验顺序的安排进行了分析,并以某型直升机机栽天线为例,详细说明了该试验方法的应用,最后就其未来发展趋势进行了探讨。