A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Using culturomics and social media data to characterize wildlife consumption

Wildlife provides food, medicine, clothing, and other necessities for humans, but overexploitation can disrupt the sustainability of wildlife resources and severely threaten global biodiversity. Understanding the characteristics of consumer behavior is helpful for wildlife managers and policy makers, but the traditional survey methods are laborious and time-consuming. In contrast, culturomics may more efficiently identify the features of wildlife consumption. As a case study of the culturomics approach, we examined tiger bone wine consumption in China based on social media and Baidu search engine data. Tiger bone wine is one of the most purchased tiger products; its consumption is closely related to tiger poaching, which greatly threatens wild tiger survival. We searched a popular social media website for the term “tiger bone wine” and focused on posts that were originally created from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2018. We filtered and classified posts related to the purchase, sale, or consumption of tiger bone wine and extracted information on providers, consumption motivations, year of production, and place of origin of the tiger bone wines based on the texts and photos of these posts. We found 756 posts related to tiger bone wine consumption, 113 of which mentioned providers of tiger bone wine, including friends (53%), elder relatives (37%), peer relatives (7%), and others (3%). Out of the 756 posts, 266 indicated the motivations of tiger bone wine consumption. Tiger bone wines were consumed as a tonic (34%), medicine (23%), game product (30%), and a symbol of wealth (28%). Some posts indicated ≥2 consumption motivations. These findings were consistent with the search queries from Baidu index. Such information could help develop targeted strategies for tiger conservation. The culturomics approach illustrated by our study is a rapid and cost-efficient way to characterize wildlife consumption.     

Performance assessment system of health,safety and environment based on experts' weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

Performance evaluation of Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) is the measurement of a company's achievement in HSE management. In order to receive a comprehensive and objective evaluation result, it is necessary to consider all evaluation factors and experts at different levels when HSE performance assessment is conducted. To improve conventional HSE performance evaluation, where weighted average method was used, a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) method is used in this study by taking experts' weights into account. Further, an HSE operating performance assessment system is designed to simplify manual and complex assessment process and generate charts and analysis reports automatically. Finally, a case of petrochemical enterprise is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the method and system.     

Development and evaluation of RAMP I – a practitioner’s tool for screening of musculoskeletal disorder risk factors in manual handling

RAMP I is a screening tool developed to support practitioners in screening for work-related musculoskeletal disorder risk factors related to manual handling. RAMP I, which is part of the RAMP tool, is based on research-based studies combined with expert group judgments. More than 80 practitioners participated in the development of RAMP I. The tool consists of dichotomous assessment items grouped into seven categories. Acceptable reliability was found for a majority of the assessment items for 15 practitioners who were given 1?h of training. The usability evaluation points to RAMP I being usable for screening for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors, i.e., usable for assessing risks, being usable as a decision base, having clear results and that the time needed for an assessment is acceptable. It is concluded that RAMP I is a usable tool for practitioners.     

Safety assessment of the film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) process through a system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)

Film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) is considered as one of the fastest process methodologies for manufacturing carbon-carbon (C–C) composite products and possesses various advantages compared to conventional methodologies. However, there are safety concerns associated with this process for large-scale manufacturing, mainly owing to the intrinsic nature of the precursor and the process conditions. Considering the multifunctional interactions of the various systems during the process, a system-theoretic process analysis (STPA)/system theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) model is used to perform a safety analysis of the hazardous states of the FB-CVI process at the system level. As a case study, the FB-CVI process equipment employed for the manufacturing of C–C composites is considered. The safety constraints present in the system are assessed for adequacy through a hazard analysis by STPA/STAMP. The analysis through STPA/STAMP demonstrated the capability to create proactive strategies for the design and realization of process equipment that can be employed to manufacture C–C composite products through the FB-CVI process.     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Effect of deuterium-depleted water on reproduction of rainbow trout

During the artificial reproduction of salmonides, the fecundity can be increased either by improving the viability of spermatozoa, or by extending the time period during which a roe micropile remains open, thus allowing its fecundation. Practically, this can be achieved by the use of some fertilising techniques suitable for fish species. Here, we show that the reproduction of rainbow trout in a 1:1 solution of deuterium-depleted water and distilled water led to a significant increase in survival of roes during their embryonic development. Moreover, the addition of glucose and fructose into the deuterium-depleted fertilising solutions led to a further increase in roe survival during embryonic development. The increase in survival is mainly explained by an increase in the motility of spermatozoa.     

工业区群环境影响评价初探

阐述了开展工业区群环境影响评价的意义,比较了单个工业园区和工业区群环评的异同,以广州番禺区工业区群环评项目为例,简述了该环评的主要内容和特点,并提出了建议。