基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型

针对建筑工程安全领域中许多对象具有"内涵明确,外延不明确"的特点,本文利用模糊数学对建筑安全事故影响因素进行度量,通过层次分析法确定各影响因素权重,提出了一种基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型,解决了建筑生产中安全事故的即时预测,并通过实例给予说明,说明了模型在建筑安全事故预测中的有效性和实用性.     

水环境质量评价3种方法的应用对比

从众多水质评价方法中选取单项指数法、加权均值型指数法、模糊数学法进行介绍,并通过运用这3种方法对大汶河某年监测数据的平均值进行评价.经对比分析发现,加权均值型指数法是一种比较实用的水质评价方法,模糊数学法可以作为必要的补充.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.     

静态应力降与动态应力降比值方法在东北地区震后趋势判定中的应用

计算静态应力降与动态应力降之比Y值,根据Y值的大小初步判定地震类型,是震后趋势判定的一种新方法,对震后趋势快速判定有一定意义。通过计算我省历年有影响地震的Y值,发现2005年以来黑龙江省及其周边地区中强地震静态应力降与动态应力降之比(Y值)在0.3~0.6之间,总体来说Y值较大,其地震类型以孤立型地震为主,吉林省前郭县地震Y值为0.37,与我省其他中强地震相比,Y值相对较低,初步判定为震群型地震。     

多层次模糊综合评判在林业土壤评价中的应用

本文以四川部分林业土壤为例,应用多层次模糊综合评判法进行土壤资源的质量评价。采取聘请众多专家分级、打分的办法制定评价标准和确定评价因素权数。实施了专家系统与综合评判的联合运用技术,并探讨了提高土壤质量评级精度的“加细”评判问题。最后,通过比较多层次模糊综合评判法与传统法(评分法)的评价结果,指出前者具有更强的客观性和全面性。     

Restructured frame‐of‐reference training improves rating accuracy

The use of heuristic judgments is prevalent in organizations and negatively impacts accurate employee assessments. To minimize the negative impact of heuristic judgments (i.e., anchoring and adjustment), we aim to improve rating accuracy by restructuring frame‐of‐reference (FOR) training. We conducted five studies (N = 1,143) using different samples (three including participants with hiring experience), training environments (onsite and online), and rating contexts (evaluations of sales representatives, teachers, contract negotiation specialists, and retail store managers). Across the five studies, the average improvement in rating accuracy was at least twice as large for restructured FOR (vs. control) training as it was for typical FOR (vs. control) training; the difference in rating accuracy between restructured and typical FOR training was statistically significant. Furthermore, minimizing the anchoring effect rather than increasing opportunities for rating adjustments improved rating accuracy (Study 4). Finally, restructured FOR training achieved higher criterion validity (i.e., a higher strength of the association between ratings regarding a target and the target's objective performance) than did typical FOR training (Studies 3 and 5). We discuss implications for improving the effectiveness of diverse training programs and the accuracy of judgments in organizations.     

地质地球化学特性对四川名优茶品质的影响

通过对四川名优茶产区地质、地球化学特征的研究,认为茶园海拔高度、土壤结构、土壤元素组合等对茶叶的品质具有深刻的影响。进一步研究了茶叶的感官指标:外形、汤色、香气、滋味、叶底与茶产地地质地球化学特征的关系,认为营养元素和有毒有害元素的丰缺不仅关系到茶叶的长势和饮用健康性,更是从口味上造成了影响。     

低频环境噪声对思维判断能力的干扰影响

选取了3种典型的城市居住区设备低频噪声实样和声学仪器产生的白噪声,使用剂量作业法,分别测定了播放噪声和无噪声干扰2种环境下,被试者的思维能力指数(AYP)和错误率.研究结果显示,在噪声干扰的条件下,多数被试者的AYP较无噪声干扰时有所下降,错误率上升,二者差异显著.多数被试人员在3种噪声实样对比组中的平均AYP和错误率变化较白噪声的对比组中较明显,其中AYP差异达显著水平.由此认为低频成份是影响思维能力的主要频率成份.配对t检验和对实录样本的频谱分析结果表明,室外空调机噪声样本的影响程度最大,表明峰值频率在50～300 Hz频率段的低频环境噪声比其他噪声负面影响更大.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

矿井火区启封安全性分析及判别准则

矿井火区启封时火区状态判断失误会导致火区复燃或火区内瓦斯爆炸。为此,本文在分析矿井火区启封的安全性的基础上,从气体信息采集和火区燃烧状态的判断技术两方面,提出了相关准则。气体信息采集准则含气样代表火区状态真实性、提高气样代表火区大气状态的真实性、正确的气样采集方法十六项内容,主要论及钻孔取样、孔内测压、火区气体采样地点、倾斜巷道密闭取样、取样地点对气样准确度的影响、气样采集时间、采集钻孔封堵、混合气样分段采集方法、取样时间间隔、气样分析方式等。火区燃烧状态的判断技术准则含十二项内容,主要论及不同火区气体浓度条件和环境条件下正确判断火区燃烧状态技术。准则可为矿井火区治理中正确分析判断火区状态和启封条件提供参考。