Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应

通过收集北京市2010~2016年逐日呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡数据、污染物（BC、PM_2.5、SO₂、O₃和NO₂）日均浓度资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（GAMs）中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型探讨了北京市气温、PM_2.5和BC单效应,以及气温与PM_2.5和BC交互作用分别对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响.单效应分析结果表明,气温与两种疾病死亡人数的累计暴露-反应关系均呈“J”型分布特征,最适温度为24℃;累计滞后一天情况下PM_2.5和BC的健康效应均最显著,此时PM_2.5和BC浓度每升高四分位间距（IQR）,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数超额增加百分比（ER）分别为2.21%和1.80%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为2.02%和1.48%.交互作用的研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的PM_2.5（或BC）对疾病死亡的影响存在协同效应,且高温条件下BC对疾病死亡影响的健康风险大于PM_2.5,当气温大于24℃时,BC和PM_2.5浓度每升高IQR对应的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数ER分别为6.22%和6.17%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为5.01%和3.97%.虽然BC只占PM_2.5的一部分,但BC对人群健康的影响不容忽视,应该引起足够的重视.     

中国臭氧短期暴露与人群死亡之间关系的Meta分析研究

为探讨中国臭氧短期暴露与死亡率之间的关系，更新适用于中国本地化的暴露-反应系数，本研究全面检索了1990年1月1日-2020年1月1日在Web of Science数据库、PubMed、中国期刊全文数据库（CNKI）、万方医学数据库和维普数据库上发表的文献，以"O₃/臭氧（ozone）"、"空气污染（air pollution）"、"死亡率（mortality）"、"时间序列（time-series）"，"病例交叉（case-crossover）"、"中国（China）"为关键词，对符合纳入标准的文献进行质量评价后提取相关数据，通过Meta分析方法合并估计值.结果显示，大气中臭氧浓度每增加10 μg·m^-3，人群总死亡率、心血管系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡率分别增加0.40%（95% CI：0.28%~0.52%）、0.67%（95% CI：0.46%~0.88%）、0.23%（95% CI：-0.20%~0.66%）.亚组分析结果表明，除季节外，温度、年龄、性别均不存在显著的修饰作用.本文结论可为开展城市大气污染健康风险精细化评估提供依据.     

基于能源-环境情景模拟的北京市大气污染对居民健康风险评价研究

保护居民健康是北京市能源系统优化管理和大气污染治理的重要目标.本研究基于北京市的社会经济发展目标并结合相关节能减排和环保要求,针对全市2010-2020年间的能源消费分别设计了高、中、低3种约束情景,通过LEAP模型预测了全市至2020年的能源消费量与S02、NOx、PM10和PM2.5等4种主要大气污染物的排放强度,并采用泊松回归模型对3种情景下主城区居民受环境空气中这4种大气污染物的暴露危害所导致的健康风险进行了评估.结果显示:相对低约束情景,高约束情景至2020年可避免与S02、NOx、PM10和PM2.5污染相关的死亡危害分别为2663、6359、4720和4104人·a-1,而且在高约束情景下煤炭消费比重每下降1％,可相应地避免约1400人·a-1的污染急性死亡.由此建议北京市实施更加严格的节能和减排措施,严控煤炭消费总量,进一步优化能源结构,最大程度地降低能源消费导致的大气污染所产生的居民健康风险.     

SEA中非突发性大气环境健康风险分析

建立了一种基于指示性污染物的非突发性环境健康风险评价模式。根据研究区域的能源类型及气候条件选择对该区域人群健康产生明显影响的指示性污染物,并根据多个城市及地区的历史数据确定指示性污染物与常住人口死亡率之间的定量对应关系,将大气预测模型和GIS系统进行集成开发,再将指示性污染物浓度与区域常住人口死亡率之间的定量对应关系嵌入与GIS集成后的大气预测模型中．．通过将区域气象数据及规划中关于指示性污染物连续排放的源强数据输入上述模型进行模拟预测,得出区域不同级别大气环境健康风险范围分布。     

Settlement decisions in blue tits: difference in the use of social information according to age and individual success

Dispersers are expected to assess breeding habitat quality before settlement. Although cues reflecting habitat quality are well studied, social cues have not been as well evaluated. In this paper, we studied breeding habitat selection during 3 years in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in nest-boxes. Our aim was to investigate if this species used conspecific density and/or reproductive success of con- and heterospecifics (i.e., social cues) in settlement decisions. The patterns observed were consistent with the idea that juveniles, when dispersing from their natal patches, did not react to any of the cues that we tested. In contrast, breeders that dispersed seemed to respond to both conspecific mean patch reproductive success (PRS) and breeding density of the settlement patch in the year of dispersal, their response differing according to their own reproductive success. Indeed, failed breeders moved to areas with high PRS and low density relative to source patches, while successful breeders behaved the opposite. The comparison between juveniles and adults might be modulated by the limited time available to juveniles to gather information on PRS and density at the end of the dispersing year. Adults lacking these time constraints, however, seemed to rely on these conspecific cues although limited by their own quality. Additionally, breeders were more likely to be immigrants in patches with relatively low breeding success and density the previous year, suggesting that settlement is influenced by multiple cues, which may reveal information on different aspects of habitat and be available at different moments. Collectively, our results support the importance of social cues for blue tits’ settlement.     

Climate policy support under political consensus: exploring the varying effect of partisanship and party cues

By creating attitudinal rifts among partisan voters, political polarization is expected to negatively affect chances of effectively mitigating climate change. While such expectations generally have found support, less attention has been paid to the opposite claim that political consensus should eliminate the partisan dimension in climate change politics. This study tests this claim by studying how party identification, and party cues specifically, affects public policy attitudes in a context defined by political consensus. Using data from a large online access panel in Sweden, party identification and party cues are shown to matter for policy attitudes even in a consensus context. This effect is not limited to certain issues but is found across a wide range of policies, and the effect of party cues, for a given issue, varies across parties. The implications of this study and areas for future work are discussed.     

Tsunami mortality and displacement in Aceh province, Indonesia

A survey of 388 Indonesian households displaced by the December 2004 tsunami was conducted in Aceh province in February 2005. Of tsunami-displaced households in Aceh Barat and Nagan Raya districts, 61.8 per cent reported one or more family members as dead or missing due to the tsunami, with an overall mortality rate of 13.9 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI): 12.4-15.4). Risk of death was greatest in the youngest and oldest age groups, and among females. Overall, 36 per cent of tsunami-displaced households indicated an intention to return to their original community within three months, and displaced households residing in host communities were 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2-2.8) times more likely to state an intention to return to their original villages or another community as those residing in camps. The tsunami recovery effort should focus on strategies that facilitate either prompt return or permanent, voluntary relocation for those displaced.     

Evaluation of a population mobility,mortality, and birth surveillance system in South Kivu,Democratic Republic of the Congo

Prospective, community-based surveillance systems for measuring birth, death, and population movement rates may have advantages over the ‘gold-standard’ retrospective household survey in humanitarian contexts. A community-based, monthly surveillance system was established in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in partnership with a local implementing partner and the national ministry of health. Data were collected on the occurrence of births, deaths, arrivals, and departures over the course of one year, and a retrospective survey was conducted at the end of the period to validate the information. Discrepancies between the two approaches were resolved by a third visit to the households with discordant records. The study found that the surveillance system was superior in terms of its specificity and sensitivity in measuring crude mortality and birth rates as compared to the survey, demonstrating the method's potential to measure accurately important population-level health metrics in an insecure setting in a timely, community-acceptable manner.     

Changes in motorcycle-related injuries and deaths after mandatory motorcycle helmet law in a district of Vietnam

Objective: Our study measured the change in head injuries and deaths among motorcycle users in Cu Chi district, a suburban district of Ho Chi Minh City.

Methods: Hospital records for road traffic injuries (RTIs) were collected from the Cu Chi Trauma Centre and motorcycle-related death records were obtained from mortality registries in commune health offices. Head injury severity was categorized using the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS). Rate ratios (RRs) were used to compare rates pre- and post-law (2005/2006–2009/2010). Cu Chi's population, stratified by year, age, and sex, was used as the denominator.

Results: Of records identifying the transportation mode at the time of injury, motorcyclists accounted for most injuries (3,035, 87%) and deaths (238, 90%). Head injuries accounted for 70% of motorcycle-related hospitalizations. Helmet use was not recorded in any death records and not in 97% of medical records. Males accounted for most injuries (73%) and deaths (88%). The median age was 28 years and 32 years for injuries and deaths, respectively. Compared to the pre-law period, rates of motorcycle injuries (RR = 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.49–0.58), head injuries (RR = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.31–0.39), severe head injuries (RR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.34–0.63), and deaths (RR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53–0.89) significantly decreased in the post-law period.

Conclusions: Rates of head injuries and deaths among motorcycle riders decreased significantly after implementation of the mandatory helmet law in Vietnam. To further examine the impact of the motorcycle helmet law, including compliance and helmet quality, further emphasis should be placed on gathering helmet use data from injured motorcyclists.