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铁路运输安全事故灰色预测方法研究 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6
近年来 ,我国铁路运输发展迅猛 ,尤其是列车运行多次提速 ,列车运行密度加大 ,对铁路运输安全管理不断提出了新的要求。依靠科技进步 ,尽量防止或减少安全事故的发生 ,要应用安全信息技术 ,使安全管理人员对铁路运输安全现状及未来事故发展趋势有所了解 ,提高安全防范意识及事故处理能力 ,同时还要不断提高员工的安全意识和安全文化素质 ,这些方法对于提高安全管理水平 ,降低事故的发生 ,保护人民的生命安全与健康具有重要意义。铁路运输安全事故预测技术就可很好解决上述问题。笔者应用灰色预测理论 ,建立了铁路运输安全事故预测模型 ,开发了安全事故预测软件系统 ,并以某铁路运输企业为例 ,介绍了研制的灰色预测系统软件的应用效果 相似文献
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将Elman神经网络应用于南京奥体中心地铁站抽水试验初期对地面沉降的预测,提出了一种预测模型。该模型采用对已知数据样本进行分段的方法,把分段后的数据作为网络输入和期望输出训练网络,从而达到动态建模的目的。从预测结果来看,该模型误差较小,基本上能够反映2002—07—21当天地面沉降的真实情况,具有一定的可靠性和实用性,因此,该模型可作为后期由于基坑开挖和防渗排水所引起地面沉降的分析工具。 相似文献
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Robert A. Zampella Charles L. Dow John F Bunnell 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2001,37(5):1189-1201
ABSTRACT: The ability of regulators, resource managers, and consultants to assess accurately wetland hydrology is crucial when identifying and delineating wetlands. In this study, simple linear regression and long‐term (ten year) New Jersey Pinelands stream gaging and pitch pine lowland water‐level data sets were used to estimate long‐term hydroperiods at lowland test sites with short‐term (two year) records. Separate regression equations were developed for each test site using reference site data and stream gaging data, and two sets of equations for selected test sites were produced using two different short‐term periods of record. Test sites had long‐term records ranging from four to ten years, allowing validation of the regression models. Measured and predicted test site growing season water levels were similar regardless of which short‐term period of record was used. The results based on the stream gaging site data were similar, although the difference between measured and estimated growing season water levels was greater when this approach was used. Excellent agreement was found between measured and estimated frequencies of near‐surface saturation at test sites for each growing season month, and these relationships improved when cumulative, seasonal frequencies were considered. The reference wetland approach used in this study may have its greatest value in regions with both high development pressures and problem wetlands and may provide an effective way of resolving costly wetland delineation disputes. 相似文献
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本文客观分析了普遍存在的季节变动国现象,探寻了季节变动国现象的变化规律,并地一步该规律进行了预测,并提出了切实可行的方法。 相似文献
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Hyland JL Balthis WL Engle VD Long ER Paul JF Summers JK Van Dolah RF 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,81(1-3):149-161
Synoptic data on concentrations of sediment-associated chemical contaminants and benthic macroinfaunal community structure were collected from 1,389 stations in estuaries along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts as part of the nationwide Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). These data were used to develop an empirical framework for evaluating risks of benthic community-level effects within different ranges of sediment contamination from mixtures of multiple chemicals present at varying concentrations. Sediment contamination was expressed as the mean ratio of individual chemical concentrations relative to corresponding sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), including Effects Range-Median (ERM) and Probable Effects Level (PEL) values. Benthic condition was assessed using diagnostic, multi-metric indices developed for each of three EMAP provinces (Virginian, Carolinian, and Louisianian). Cumulative percentages of stations with a degraded benthic community were plotted against ascending values of the mean ERM and PEL quotients. Based on the observed relationships, mean SQG quotients were divided into four ranges corresponding to either a low, moderate, high, or very high incidence of degraded benthic condition. Results showed that condition of the ambient benthic community provides a reliable and sensitive indicator for evaluating the biological significance of sediment-associated stressors. Mean SQG quotients marking the beginning of the contaminant range associated with the highest incidence of benthic impacts (73–100% of samples, depending on the province and type of SQG) were well below those linked to high risks of sediment toxicity as determined by short-term toxicity tests with single species. Measures of the ambient benthic community reflect the sensitivities of multiple species and life stages to persistent exposures under actual field conditions. Similar results were obtained with preliminary data from the west coast (Puget Sound). 相似文献
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基于小波神经网络的瓦斯涌出量预测研究 总被引:3,自引:4,他引:3
准确地预测瓦斯涌出量对于指导矿井设计和安全生产有重要意义,而瓦斯涌出量是一个与自然因素及开采技术等多因素有关的非线性建模问题。鉴于传统神经网络方法解决非线性问题收敛速度慢,易陷入局部最优解的缺陷,笔者提出一种既充分利用小波变换的时频局部化性质,又能结合神经网络的自学习能力的小波神经网络预测瓦斯涌出量的方法,并建立了预测模型。在此基础上,采用Delphi语言,设计了小波/BP神经网络仿真器。通过实例分析表明该方法较传统神经网络收敛迅速,预测精度高。 相似文献
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基于地理信息系统的遥感定量调查法是近年来新出现的水土流失调查方法 ,其核心部分就在于水土流失定量评价模型及其各参数的算式算法。本文主要介绍了几种主要的水土流失遥感定量评价模型的构成 ,并对其中USLE系列模型的因子的算式、算法进行了汇编。 相似文献
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