Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

销毁遗弃化学武器的环境风险评价方法研究

为履行《禁止化学武器公约》，各缔约国销毁化学武器的工作已启动。根据当前世界上化学武器的销毁情况，并针对二战期间在中国遗弃的化学武器的特点，给出了一套适应化学武器销毁流程的环境风险评价方法和技术。这套方法对将在我国进行的销毁遗弃化学武器风险评价工作有一定的实际意义。     

常减压蒸馏装置改造危险因素分析及安全对策

应用危险性预分析法,对一套常减压蒸馏装置扩容改造施工的危险因素进行分析,制定出相应的防范对策,以确保改造工作的安全.     

基于风险的检验在高温高压管廊蒸汽管道的应用

高含硫天然气净化装置高温高压管廊蒸汽管道由于不能停车,在现有技术条件下无法开展全面检验,存在安全运行的风险。简述了基于风险的检验技术的基本理念。讨论了蒸汽管道开展基于风险的检验的合规性、损伤模式及机理、风险评估方法和程序。通过综合考虑失效可能性和失效后果,制定最优检验策略并实施,解决了高温高压管廊蒸汽管道到期不能检验的问题,及时发现隐患并整改,确保管道合法合规安全运行。研究结果表明,采用基于风险的检验技术,既能节约大量的停车和检验维修费用,又能有效地提高重点设备管线的安全性和管理水平。     

浅谈油田开发项目事故风险环境影响和防治措施——以大庆太19区油田开发为例

通过对国内外油田开发的类比事故调查及资料分析,结合大庆太19区油田开采的实际情况,事故风险主要来自于钻井(井下作业)天然气集输管线以及站场等工艺环节,危险其安全的潜在危险因素主要有自然灾害、腐蚀环境、误操作、设备缺陷、施工及人为破坏等同题.在油田开发过程中所发生的事故,不论是人为因素引起的还是自然灾害,其最终结果都是导致原油、天然气或含油污水的泄漏及火灾爆炸事故,并产生不同程度的环境风险,因此采取风险防治措施显得尤为重要.     

HAZOP方法在炼化企业供电系统评估中的应用

基于HAZOP的方法对炼化企业电力系统进行分析,可以有效提高炼化企业电气安全平稳运行水平,降低发生大面积停电事故的风险。该分析方法不同于化工企业的HAZOP分析方法,在分析流程细节中,结合电气专业化的特点,形成了一套具有炼化企业供电系统风险评估特色的评价方法,为炼化企业供电系统在规划、设计、运行等阶段提供依据。     

我国矿业"走出去"风险勘探问题分析与建议

根据我国资源条件和经济发展的需要以及获取国外资源的方式进行比较分析得知，我国非常有必要到国外进行风险勘探。虽然我国经历了多年境外风险勘探的实践和探索，但是步伐缓慢，在实践中面临很多问题。对此，作者提出了我国境外风险勘探问题的建议。     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

TOPHAZOP: a knowledge-based software tool for conducting HAZOP in a rapid, efficient yet inexpensive manner

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies constitute an essential step in the risk analysis of any chemical process industry and involve systematic identification of every conceivable abnormal process deviation, its causes and abnormal consequences. These authors have recently proposed optHAZOP as an alternative procedure for conducting HAZOP studies in a shorter span of time than taken by conventional HAZOP procedure, with greater accuracy and effectiveness [Khan, F. I. and Abassi, S. A., optHAZOP. An effective and efficient technique for hazard identification and assessment Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1997, 10, 191–204]. optHAZOP consists of several steps, the most crucial one requires use of a knowledge-based software tool which would significantly reduce the requirement of expert man-hours and speed up the work of the study team. TOPHAZOP (Tool for OPTmizing HAZOP) has been developed to fulfil this need.

The TOPHAZOP knowledge-base consists of two main branches: process-specific and general. The TOPHAZOP framework allows these two branches to interact during the analysis to address the process-specific aspects of HAZOP analysis while maintaining the generality of the system. The system is open-ended and modular in structure to make easy implementation and/or expansion of knowledge. The important features of TOPHAZOP and its performance on an industrial case study are described.