Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

广西合浦海草床面临的威胁与保护对策

2003年7月对广西合浦海草床进行了现场调查,并对海草床周围利益相关者进行抽样问卷调查.结果表明当地社会经济发展和居民生活对海草所在的海域依赖程度比较高;合浦海草床目前所面临的威胁主要以人为破坏因素为主:挖沙虫、挖螺、耙螺,围网捕渔、电鱼虾,插桩养蚝,底拖网作业等;海草床退化的因果链分析结果表明,为增加经济收入是产生这些人为破坏因素的主要原因.最后综合分析了该区域海草保护与管理所面临的主要问题,并提出了相应的保护对策.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

External threats to ecosystems of US national parks

Activities beyond national park boundaries are now the principal source of threats to park natural resource integrity. Assessing the full impact of major threats as air and water pollution requires a long-term ecosystem-level approach in research design and execution, and park management. Failure to take such an approach renders most existing park data bases useless in the documentation of external threats. While the concept of managing national parks as ecosystems is not new, Park Service research and its organization have not provided the information necessary for such a basis of management. Quantifying the impacts on park resources due to external hydrologic regulation and air pollution is a good example of the need to employ an ecosystem approach in research. However, implementing such a program will require a fundamental change in research administration, priority setting, and conceptual approach.The first four of the articles in this special section arise from an AAAS symposium onExternal Threats to Ecosystems of the National Parks in the USA, which was convened in 1982. The articles have been revised to reflect subsequent developments in this field. The first article, by Dr. Stottlemyer, the symposium organizer, serves as an introduction to the topic. The fifth article in this special section was submitted separately, but included because it also is related to this particular topic.     

信息安全评估的模型和方法研究

提出了信息系统安全评估及弱点管理的工作模型;明确了信息安全评估中涉及的资产、资产价值、威胁、弱点等基本概念;给出了资产赋值、威胁、弱点量化原则;同时对信息系统安全评估及弱点管理的工作模型,及综合的风险计算模型和公式给以介绍。研究工作旨在为信息安全评估工作和后续的弱点管理工作提供理论依据和参考,以提高风险评估的质量和效果,为企业的信息安全评估提供了支撑平台。同时对安全信息库的建设方式、企事业单位的信息安全评估管理体系的建设提出建议。     

Quantifying the erosion of natural darkness in the global protected area system

The nighttime light environment of much of the earth has been transformed by the introduction of electric lighting. This impact continues to spread with growth in the human population and extent of urbanization. This has profound consequences for organismal physiology and behavior and affects abundances and distributions of species, community structure, and likely ecosystem functions and processes. Protected areas play key roles in buffering biodiversity from a wide range of anthropogenic pressures. We used a calibration of a global satellite data set of nighttime lights to determine how well they are fulfilling this role with regard to artificial nighttime lighting. Globally, areas that are protected tend to be darker at night than those that are not, and, with the exception of Europe, recent regional declines in the proportion of the area that is protected and remains dark have been small. However, much of these effects result from the major contribution to overall protected area coverage by the small proportion of individual protected areas that are very large. Thus, in Europe and North America high proportions of individual protected areas (>17%) have exhibited high levels of nighttime lighting in all recent years, and in several regions (Europe, Asia, South and Central America) high proportions of protected areas (32–42%) have had recent significant increases in nighttime lighting. Limiting and reversing the erosion of nighttime darkness in protected areas will require routine consideration of nighttime conditions when designating and establishing new protected areas; establishment of appropriate buffer zones around protected areas where lighting is prohibited; and landscape level reductions in artificial nighttime lighting, which is being called for in general to reduce energy use and economic costs.     

A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.     

岩体锚固及安全保护试验研究--以库木吐拉千佛洞为例

岩体严重风化、垮塌和裂隙发育是库木吐拉千佛洞普遍存在的地质环境病害．风化岩体锚固机理的研究和灌浆材料的优选是对洞窟实施有效安全保护的关键。现场试验结果表明：锚固体的破坏产生于岩体与灌浆体的接触面．抗拔力与锚固长度无明显线性关系．存在最佳锚固参数；风化岩体具有良好的可灌性．实现裂隙灌浆的重点只在于材料性能的确定。笔者认为在此基础上进行保护施工必须综合考虑特定环境条件．充分比较材料的优劣．恰当地选择锚固技术和引用PS及PS复合材料。     

青藏铁路运营后的西藏旅游业:机遇、威胁与发展对策

近年来西藏旅游业得到较快发展，但仍存在基础设施建设不足、环境破坏日益严重、旅游成本过高等一系列问题。我国对西藏旅游业的发展给予了高度重视，青藏铁路的全线运营给西藏旅游业发展带来了前所未有的机遇和动力，同时也对西藏的社会环境、生态环境构成了潜在的威胁，作者对此作了简要剖析并提出了对策建议。     

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs

Effective ecosystem‐based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components’ vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions.