Heat as emergency,heat as chronic stress: policy and institutional responses to vulnerability to extreme heat

Increasingly commonplace in cities, extreme heat events introduce multi-stress vulnerability, affecting people’s health and well-being, financial situation, mobility, social relations, and access to basic services. Planning to reduce heat vulnerability has become part of government business and to some extent community-level responses, cutting across a number of sectors including public health, emergency management, social services, critical infrastructure, and housing. This planning is often framed around heat as an emergency, focusing on preventing loss of life and severe health impacts, yet a vulnerability perspective also draws attention to the chronic and persistent impacts of heat. Our research, based on interviews and desktop research in Melbourne, Australia, found tensions between addressing heat as an emergency and heat as a source of chronic stress, with emergency responses taking precedence over responses addressing the chronic dimensions of heat. Each approach results in different but nonetheless related programmatic priorities for reducing vulnerability. In complex institutional settings, improving relations between policy and programme managers, non-government organisations, and vulnerable people themselves would enable the multiple stresses associated with extreme heat to be more effectively addressed. Policy and institutional responses that better appreciate the interconnections between the emergency and chronic aspects of heat would likely reduce vulnerability and contribute to more just approaches to urban sustainability.     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

黄河流域生态环境脆弱性评价、空间分析及预测

生态环境脆弱性是制约经济可持续、高质量发展的重要因素。以2005—2018年黄河流域73个城市为研究对象,构建了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析计算了黄河流域生态环境脆弱指数,并依据自然断点法将评价结果分为极度脆弱、重度脆弱、中度脆弱、轻度脆弱、微度脆弱五类。进一步通过空间相关分析揭示了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的时空演变特征,并利用CA-Markov模型对黄河流域2025年生态环境脆弱性进行了预测。结果表明：（1）黄河上、中、下游生态环境脆弱性分别表现“低—中—高”的分布特征,且生态环境脆弱性变化趋势存在区别：上游虽差异较大但波动相似,中游波动方向相反,下游在2016年之后整体呈下降趋势。（2）黄河流域生态环境脆弱性存在空间相关性,上游呈现低—低聚集,下游呈现高—高聚集,中游空间相关性不显著。（3）预测2025年黄河流域中游地区重度脆弱有所扩张,下游地区极度脆弱向中心区域明显收缩。黄河流域生态环境的治理与保护并非一朝一夕之事,也并非某一流域单独能够完成的,黄河上、中、下游要根据不同的自然条件制定与之相适宜、符合整体发展需要的治理与保护措施。     

火灾频发暴露我国城市公共安全系统脆弱性

为剖析近来我国火灾事故频发的原因,以上海＂11·15＂火灾事故为典型案例,分析了事件灾害过程和行为特征。结果提示：事件过程所暴露的风险管理疏失;安全基础设施薄弱;应急准备欠缺和应急响应能力不足等现象,凸显我国城市公共安全领域的系统脆弱性。系统脆弱性可能是导致＂11·15＂火灾事故发生与成灾的主要原因,作者认为系统脆弱性存在实质是公共安全体系的结构性缺陷。建议应从制度化建设入手,注意克服系统脆弱性,以加强公共安全保障能力,提高社会管理水平。     

经常性暴雨内涝区域房屋财(资)产脆弱性研究——以温州市为例

基于洪涝灾害脆弱性研究基本思路,选择经常性暴雨内涝区域——温州市麻步镇和水头镇,就0908号台风"莫拉克"影响开展"暴雨内涝灾后房屋财产和商业资产损失"抽样问卷调查。结果表明:淹没区域平均水深1.7m,平均淹没时间超过2 d,房屋财(资)产损失较大;经常性暴雨内涝区域30%住户和商铺灾害损失值和灾损率接近0,房屋财产和商业资产灾损率呈现乘幂函数曲线。     

模糊评价法在沧州市区地下水脆弱性评价中的应用

以DRASTIC模型为基础,建立了评价含水层污染性难易程度的模糊分析理论与方法,并将其应用于沧州市区地下水系统脆弱性评价。评价结果从趋势上反映了沧州市区地下水受污染的难易程度,与市区地下水污染现状吻合较好。     

综合交通枢纽运营安全集成管理机制的构建

为提高综合交通枢纽(ITH)运营安全管理的效率和效果,从脆弱性的角度,分析综合交通枢纽运营安全事故的机理和运营安全管理的特性,构建综合交通枢纽运营安全集成管理机制.该机制以安全信息、安全组织和安全资源的协调、集成和优化为核心,包含干扰监测、威胁预警、漏洞修复、事故控制、鲁棒性提升和应急与恢复等实施机制.建立包含管理措施和技术手段的支撑体系.研究表明:脆弱性是综合交通枢纽运营安全事故发生的根源;该机制以脆弱性为突破口,通过若干管理措施和技术手段,能够实现综合交通枢纽运营安全的全素、全过程和全资源的集成管理.     

生态脆弱性评价在矿区规划环评中的应用研究——以阜新矿区为例

以辽宁阜新矿区总体规划环评为例,基于生态环境指数,生态敏感性和景观空间结构等指标构建矿区开发生态脆弱性评价指标体系,运用层次分析和综合指数法评价和划分区域生态脆弱性等级,利用GIS技术并结合法规要求将规划矿区划分为适宜、优化、适度、限制和禁止开采等5类地区.评价结果表明,阜新矿区生态脆弱性整体较高,脆弱度属于4级和5级的区块分别约占规划总面积的51.38%和39.36%,且已建和规划新建煤矿全部处在脆弱性较高的区域范围内,矿区开发与生态保护之间的矛盾突出.