水环境质量评价3种方法的应用对比

从众多水质评价方法中选取单项指数法、加权均值型指数法、模糊数学法进行介绍,并通过运用这3种方法对大汶河某年监测数据的平均值进行评价.经对比分析发现,加权均值型指数法是一种比较实用的水质评价方法,模糊数学法可以作为必要的补充.     

Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

街道峡谷对称性对污染物扩散的影响

采用数值模拟的方法,研究了行列式和错列式街谷两侧建筑物的对称性对街谷内和下游建筑尾流区污染物浓度的影响,并引入3个用于评价室内空气环境的指标来描述街谷中人员区域内的空气质量.结果表明,平均残留时间(ART)和有效通风率(PFR)可用于评价不对称街谷内的空气质量.街谷的不对称性对街谷内部和下游建筑尾流区污染物浓度分布均有明显影响.下游建筑越低,则尾流区的浓度越高.行列式和错列式街谷中人员活动空间的无量纲平均浓度分别在建筑高度比例为7/3和7/2时最大.为在城市规划中尽可能避免出现最不利比例的街谷,根据平均残留时间和有效通风率等指标,给出了上下游建筑高度比与最不利街谷改善率的关系.     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

Boater Perceptions of Environmental Issues Affecting Lakes in Northern Wisconsin

Understanding public perceptions of the importance of environmental issues is crucial for gauging support for management activities. I present a novel methodological approach to assess the importance boaters placed on 16 water issues in a lake‐rich region of northern Wisconsin. A latent class maximum difference conjoint model was used to examine the relationships between environmental concern and engagement with lake resources. Boaters were grouped to maximize observed heterogeneity in prioritizing issues of concern. Socio‐demographic characteristics, recreation specialization, place attachment, and attitudes concerning aquatic stewardship and invasive species management were then used to predict class membership. This modeling approach identified five groups whose perceptions of issues pertaining to lakes are influenced by their interactions with the lake environment. While anglers were most concerned about fishing quality, sightseers identified lakeshore development and loss of natural habitat. Groups also differed in their socio‐demographic and attitudinal characteristics. The priorities of each group were substantially different from those of the overall sample. Accounting for differences in stakeholders' environmental concerns may improve public involvement in water management initiatives by allowing managers to identify common concerns and prioritize important issues among multiple groups.     

Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics

The “biosphere–climate” system is subjected to different influences (influx of anthropogenic CO₂ and pollutants, deforestation, harmful land management, biological species depopulation, etc.). Therefore, the vital question arises: “Can these influences lead to irreversible negative changes in the climate–biosphere system or a global ecological catastrophe?” The possibility of irreversible changes may be not very high, but one cannot ignore it. So the main aim of our investigation is to evaluate possible consequences of human impact on the biosphere focusing on irreversible changes of it.     

基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价研究

为降低城市内涝灾害应急能力评估过程中评价信息模糊性对评估结果的影响,提出1种基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价方法。对城市内涝灾害形成机理进行分析,从定性与定量相结合的角度建立评价体系;针对群决策过程中的信息不确定性问题,采用语言术语集表达评价信息;提出基于Z-numbers最优最劣方法（ZBWM）确定指标权重,并利用Z-numbers改进的交互式多指标决策方法（ZTODIM）计算备选方案的优势度;通过与传统决策方法进行对比分析,验证其灵活性和可靠性。结果表明:运用该方法可对重庆、武汉、常德和萍乡4座城市的内涝灾害应急能力展开有效评价,为今后改善城市内涝灾害应急能力提供参考。     

对环境空气质量预测中不利气象条件的研究

评价区域内的气象条件是影响大气环境影响预测结果的重要因子.为寻找可能的最大影响,须设置可能发生的不利于污染物传输与扩散的气象条件.分别以城市和郊区的高、中和低架源为例,计算其在各种风速和稳定度组合情况下的最大地面浓度,利用Screen3模式,寻找各类污染源对环境影响最大时的不利气象条件,以及需关注的环境空气敏感点(区).结果表明:小风速和强不稳定度是城市和郊区2类源的不利气象条件;而城市源的不利气象条件还可能出现在小风速和稳定类的情况下. 由于城市高架源影响范围广,评价时更应关注整个评价区域的环境空气敏感点;虽然城市高架源的影响程度比郊区高架源小,但城市低架源的影响程度却大于郊区低架源.      

断路器抗冲击性能考核试验时的安装方向选择

舰艇设备的抗冲击能力是其作战性能的重要指标之一,对于其装舰前的冲击试验考核是环境试验的一项重要内容,在无法明确设备在舰上安装方式和方向时,考核应模拟最严酷的工作条件和船上可能使用的安装方法,以船用典型断路器为例,简要描述了冲击条件下最严酷安装状态的分析选择过程,以期作为其它舰用设备冲击考核试验所选试验工况的参考。