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排序方式: 共有508条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
2.
P.P. Povinec H. Bokuniewicz W.C. Burnett J. Cable M. Charette J.-F. Comanducci E.A. Kontar W.S. Moore J.A. Oberdorfer J. de Oliveira R. Peterson T. Stieglitz M. Taniguchi 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2008,99(10):1596
Results of groundwater and seawater analyses for radioactive (3H, 222Rn, 223Ra, 224Ra, 226Ra, and 228Ra) and stable (D and 18O) isotopes are presented together with in situ spatial mapping and time series 222Rn measurements in seawater, direct seepage measurements using manual and automated seepage meters, pore water investigations using different tracers and piezometric techniques, and geoelectric surveys probing the coast. This study represents first time that such a new complex arsenal of radioactive and non-radioactive tracer techniques and geophysical methods have been used for simultaneous submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) investigations. Large fluctuations of SGD fluxes were observed at sites situated only a few meters apart (from 0 cm d−1 to 360 cm d−1; the unit represents cm3/cm2/day), as well as during a few hours (from 0 cm d−1 to 110 cm d−1), strongly depending on the tidal fluctuations. The average SGD flux estimated from continuous 222Rn measurements is 17 ± 10 cm d−1. Integrated coastal SGD flux estimated for the Ubatuba coast using radium isotopes is about 7 × 103 m3 d−1 per km of the coast. The isotopic composition (δD and δ18O) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment, indicating that the contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a small percentage to 20%. However, this contribution with increasing offshore distance became negligible. Automated seepage meters and time series measurements of 222Rn activity concentration showed a negative correlation between the SGD rates and tidal stage. This is likely caused by sea level changes as tidal effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients. The geoelectric probing and piezometric measurements contributed to better understanding of the spatial distribution of different water masses present along the coast. The radium isotope data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance, which imply that seawater in a complex coast with many small bays and islands was influenced by local currents and groundwater/seawater mixing. This has also been confirmed by a relatively short residence time of 1–2 weeks for water within 25 km offshore, as obtained by short-lived radium isotopes. The irregular distribution of SGD seen at Ubatuba is a characteristic of fractured rock aquifers, fed by coastal groundwater and recirculated seawater with small admixtures of groundwater, which is of potential environmental concern and has implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region. 相似文献
3.
4.
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTThe present study was carried out to investigate the effect of three organic matters (stalk powder, microbial fertilizer, and manure) on Leymus chinensis germination, growth, and urease activity and available nitrogen (N) in coastal saline soil. The study was conducted in a completely randomized design with eight treatments: J0V0Y0, J1V0Y0, J0V1Y0, J0V0Y1, J1V1Y0, J1V0Y1, J0V1Y1, J1V1Y1. The notations were based on the quantities of each agent added to 1 kg of coastal saline soil: J0 – no straw powder, J1 – 0.2 kg straw powder, Y0 – no manure, Y1 – 0.3 kg manure, V0 – no microbial fertilizer, V1 – 0.2 L microbial fertilizer, each in quantic repeat. L. chinensis was sown as 50 seeds per pot. Results indicated that addition of organic agents exerted a significantly enhanced germination, increase in fresh weight and elevated soil urease activity. Soil available N levels were significantly positively correlated with soil urease activity and fresh weight, but not with germination rate. It is noteworthy that the halophyte L. chinensis showed improved characteristics when grown in coastal saline soil with addition of organic amendments. 相似文献
6.
Geographical areas constitute the basic implementation locus for integrated coastal zone management strategies and activities.
Because the definition of territorial planning objectives may be affected by socioeconomic and environmental characteristics,
one of the main steps in the process involves dividing the coast into homogeneous environmental management units (HEMUs).
This article presents a general and simple method for regionalizing the landside of a coastal zone into HEMUs and illustrates
it through application to the Catalan coast. Socioeconomic and natural (biophysical) subsystems were selected as the most
appropriate dimensions of the regionalization process. Dimensions were described using 11 spatial themes, which were managed
in a geographic information system environment that proved to be an adequate tool for the purpose. A final coastal zone map
of four classes of HEMUs connected to local administrative units was obtained, and because it reflects the current natural
and socioeconomic dynamics, it can be considered as an initial step in the planning process for the Catalan coast. Although
the proposed method was developed based on the characteristics of the Catalan coast, it is general enough to be adapted and
applied to most developed or developing coastal areas. 相似文献
7.
Dredged material levees in coastal Louisiana are normally associated with pipeline canals or, more frequently, canals dredged
through the wetlands to allow access to drilling locations for mineral extraction. The hydrologic impact on marshes behind
the levee is of concern to coastal resource managers because of the potential impact on sediment transport and deposition,
and the effect on estuarine organism access to valuable nursery habitat. This study examined the effects of gaps in dredged
material levees, compared to continuous levees and natural channel banks, on these two aspects of marsh function. Field studies
for sediment deposition were conducted biweekly for a year, and nekton samples were collected in spring and fall. Variation
in nekton density among study arears and landscape types was great in part because of the inherent sampling gear issues and
in part because of differences in characteristics among areas. Nekton densities were generally greater in natural compared
to leveed and gapped landscapes. Differences in landscape type did not explain patterns in sediment deposition. The gaps examined
appear to be too restrictive of marsh flooding to provide efficient movements of floodwaters onto the marsh during moderate
flooding events. The “trapping” effect of the levees increases sediment deposition during extreme events. Gapping material
levees may be an effective method of partially restoring upper marsh connection to nekton, but this method may work best in
lower elevation marshes where nekton use is greater. 相似文献
8.
Thomas Hartmann 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(2):360-377
In response to the extreme flood events of recent decades, the European Union has released the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), which requires the creation of flood risk management plans. These plans do not yet exist in practice, as water management agencies have until 2015 to put them into action. This contribution will discuss two questions regarding the European flood risk management plan: First, how is the new instrument integrated into the various member states, particularly with respect to the scenario approach? Second, how prepared are the institutions for the collaborative planning paradigm of the flood risk management plan, particularly with respect to the river basin districts approach? Citing examples from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, this paper offers both a pessimistic and an optimistic perspective on the implementation of the new flood risk management instrument. 相似文献
9.
基于江西省5个气象站(赣县、吉安、南城、南昌、景德镇)近50 a(1961~2010年)平均气温、最高、最低平均气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数、降雨量等逐月平均资料,计算江西省干旱侦测指数(Reconnaissance drought index,RDI),分析旱情、涝情变化趋势。同时,运用多元回归法分析主要驱动因素。研究结果表明,1961~2010年江西省年及四个季节的降雨量、平均相对湿度与RDIst值均呈现极显著的正相关关系(p0.01),而日照时数则与RDIst值呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.01)。降雨量对江西省旱、涝变化的贡献率最大,为42%~58%;其次是平均气温和相对湿度,分别为11%~19%和7%~19%;平均风速和日照时数对江西省旱、涝变化的贡献率较小。降雨量、相对湿度的增加,日照时数的减少共同导致了1961~2010年江西省年际尺度和春季RDIst值的增加,表明江西省总体从偏旱向偏涝转变。1961~2010年江西省夏季、秋季和冬季RDIst没有明显的增长或降低趋势。 相似文献
10.
Vinicius F. Farjalla André M. Amado Albert L. Suhett Frederico Meirelles-Pereira 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2009,16(5):531-538
Background, aim, and scope Dissolved humic substances (HS) usually comprise 50–80% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in aquatic ecosystems. From
a trophic and biogeochemical perspective, HS has been considered to be highly refractory and is supposed to accumulate in
the water. The upsurge of the microbial loop paradigm and the studies on HS photo-degradation into labile DOC gave rise to
the belief that microbial processing of DOC should sustain aquatic food webs in humic waters. However, this has not been extensively
supported by the literature, since most HS and their photo-products are often oxidized by microbes through respiration in
most nutrient-poor humic waters. Here, we review basic concepts, classical studies, and recent data on bacterial and photo-degradation
of DOC, comparing the rates of these processes in highly humic ecosystems and other aquatic ecosystems.
Materials and methods We based our review on classical and recent findings from the fields of biogeochemistry and microbial ecology, highlighting
some odd results from highly humic Brazilian tropical lagoons, which can reach up to 160 mg C L−1.
Results and discussion Highly humic tropical lagoons showed proportionally lower bacterial production rates and higher bacterial respiration rates
(i.e., lower bacterial growth efficiency) than other lakes. Zooplankton showed similar δ13C to microalgae but not to humic DOC in these highly humic lagoons. Thus, the data reviewed here do not support the microbial
loop as an efficient matter transfer pathway in highly humic ecosystems, where it is supposed to play its major role.
In addition, we found that some tropical humic ecosystems presented the highest potential DOC photo-chemical mineralization
(PM) rates reported in the literature, exceeding up to threefold the rates reported for temperate humic ecosystems. We propose
that these atypically high PM rates are the result of a joint effect of the seasonal dynamics of allochthonous humic DOC input
to these ecosystems and the high sunlight incidence throughout the year. The sunlight action on DOC is positive to microbial
consumption in these highly humic lagoons, but little support is given to the enhancement of bacterial growth efficiency,
since the labile photo-chemical products are mostly respired by microbes in the nutrient-poor humic waters.
Conclusions HS may be an important source of energy for aquatic bacteria in humic waters, but it is probably not as important as a substrate
to bacterial growth and to aquatic food webs, since HS consumption is mostly channeled through microbial respiration. This
especially seems to be the case of humic-rich, nutrient-poor ecosystems, where the microbial loop was supposed to play its
major role. Highly humic ecosystems also present the highest PM rates reported in the literature. Finally, light and bacteria
can cooperate in order to enhance total carbon degradation in highly humic aquatic ecosystems but with limited effects on
aquatic food webs.
Recommendations and perspectives More detailed studies using C- and N-stable isotope techniques and modeling approaches are needed to better understand the
actual importance of HS to carbon cycling in highly humic waters. 相似文献