1380 — 1429年中国东部雨涝期与气候系统内部变率的可能联系

利用重建数据和模拟数据探讨中国东部1380—1429年雨涝期与气候系统内部变率之间的联系。结果显示：1380—1429年全球大多数区域发生了严重的旱涝事件,揭示了中国东部雨涝气候可能是对大尺度大气环流调整下的响应,可能与该时期赤道太平洋类La Niña海温分布、太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）冷位相、北大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）暖位相、北大西洋涛动（NAO）正位相相关。全球海气耦合模式尽管能够模拟出该时期非洲和欧洲区域的干湿空间分布状况,但模拟的中国东部、北美和南美的干湿状况与重建相反。其可能的原因或许是模式虽正确模拟出了NAO正位相及弱的印度洋偶极子（IOD）负位相,但无法正确刻画赤道太平洋类La Niña海温分布、北太平洋PDO冷位相及北大西洋AMO暖位相。     

地球系统模式CESM模拟的ENSO变率与中国东部降水格局

根据地球系统模式（CESM）的千年控制模拟试验结果,以Niño3.4区的逐月海表温度变化为指标,辨识了212次El Niño事件、226次La Niña事件;分析了El Niño和La Niña事件发生当年及次年中国东部5-9月降水异常的空间格局;探讨了ENSO与华北、江淮、江南和华南4个区域旱涝的关系。结果表明：El Niño事件发生的当年5-9月,华北和华南地区降水减少2%~10%,长江中下游地区降水略有增加（0~2%）;次年,江南地区转为降水增加（2%~10%）,华北北部降水继续减少。在La Niña事件发生的当年,华北地区降水偏多（增加2%~10%）;次年,江淮地区降水显著减少（2%~5%）。ENSO增强会导致降水变幅加大。在El Niño衰减并向La Niña快速发展的年份,江南地区出现洪涝灾害的概率较其他年份高1倍以上。这些认识为深入揭示气候系统内部年际变率对中国东部降水格局变化与区域旱涝的影响作用、理解2016年长江中下游发生重大洪涝灾害提供了异常天气气候背景依据。     

2002/2003年ENSO过程诊断分析

在与1997/1998年强ENSO过程比较的基础上,揭示了2002/2003年ENSO暖事件爆发晚、结束快及西强东弱等关键性特点,并进一步分析了该暖事件爆发过程中热带海温背景所起的重要作用.     

ENSO与云南蒋家沟泥石流灾害发生的关系

通过分析近40年来出现的ENSO事件对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流活动的影响可知,El Ni(~n)o与LaNi(~n)a对其的影响正好相反,且El Ni(~n)o的影响大于La Ni(~n)a的影响.El Ni(~n)o年,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏少的概率均较大,泥石流活动减弱的倾向明显;La Ni(~n)a年,虽有一定的对应关系,但不如El Ni(~n)o年明显,且影响更复杂一些,总的来说,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏多或持平的概率较大.     

CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN A COASTAL WATERSHED OF SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate data from the Malcolm Knapp Research Forest (MKRF) in the Coast Range mountains of southwestern British Columbia were used to examine relationships between climate and hydrology and variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Air and water temperatures were higher and precipitation was lower during in‐phase or warm PDO/E1 Niño events than in other years. In contrast, in‐phase or cool PDO/La Niña years were generally cooler and wetter than other years. Precipitation and East Creek discharge were positively related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and negatively related to the PDO index. Conversely, air and water temperatures were negatively related to the SOI and positively related to the PDO index. Differences in precipitation and air temperature were also evident at longer time scales when separated by PDO phase. Because of drier conditions during in‐phase El Niño events, the flow of organic matter from East Creek to downstream portions of the channel network was lower compared to other years. This reduction has implications for downstream communities, as these subsidies provide a major source of energy for stream food webs. Therefore, short term and long term shifts in climate, discharge, and water temperature may have profound impacts on the ecology of Pacific Northwest (PNW) watersheds due to changes in a number of ecosystem processes such as altered flux of organic matter from headwater streams to larger rivers.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

近60 年ENSO 事件对鄂尔多斯北部地区气候的影响

通过对鄂尔多斯北部的乌拉特中旗、呼和浩特和包头三个城市近60 年来的降水资料和 气温资料的整理和搜集,研究了ENSO 事件对鄂尔多斯北部地区的气候与灾害的影响。分析数据 得出,自1952 年来,鄂尔多斯北部地区的气候呈变暖变干趋势。1952 年以来鄂尔多斯北部地区 年平均气温增长率为0.48℃ ·10a?1,高于全国的平均气温增长率（0.22℃ ·10a?1）;年降水量则处 于略下降趋势,下降率约为5.5 mm·10a?1,低于全国的平均降水下降率（12.69 mm·10a?1）。厄尔 尼诺年年平均气温高出正常年份0.2℃,而拉尼娜年的平均气温比正常年低0.14℃。厄尔尼诺年 的平均降水量比正常年减少29.2 mm,拉尼娜年的平均降水比正常年减少23.9 mm。厄尔尼诺事 件对鄂尔多斯北部地区的灾害影响比拉尼娜事件更为显著和强烈,厄尔尼诺年鄂尔多斯北部地区 更易发生高温干旱灾害。小波分析指示,鄂尔多斯北部降水周期变化在30 a 尺度内存在2 a、4 a、 8 a 和14 a 的变化周期。     

ENSO对我国江南及印度降水影响的比较

根据近百年我国江南和印度的降水资料,对比分析了其各季降水与ＥＮＳＯ的关系。统计表明,Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ发生时印度夏季和秋季降水的减少最显著,分别比多年平均减少４．５％和６．０％,Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ时则分别增加６．６％和８．１％。对我国江南降水影响最显著的是冬季,在Ｅ１ Ｎｉｎｏ事件时降水比多年平均偏多１８．５％,Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ时则偏低了１７．７％。降水的年代际变化可以影响ＥＮＳＯ与降水的关系。９０年代江南处     

安图红松树轮稳定δ~(13)C、δ~(18)O序列记录的气候变化信息

测定了安图红松树轮稳定碳、氧同位素组成。选取与安图县毗邻的敦化市气象记录 ,分析了气象记录与树轮稳定碳、氧同位素的相关关系 ,发现红松树轮碳、氧同位素对气候变化均有显著的响应。合成了复合温湿指标 (TH) ,相关分析表明树轮碳、氧同位素对复合温湿指标的响应更加灵敏 ,而且碳同位素和氧同位素均对 5～ 8月的平均复合温湿指标有显著的响应。建立了碳、氧同位素对气候因子的响应函数 ,重建了安图地区近 2 0 0年来的气候变化。功率谱分析发现碳、氧同位素组成在 95 %的置信水平上存有准 2 0 0年、准 11年、准 4年和准 2年的变化周期。前两个周期变化基本上与太阳活动周期变化一致 ,后两个周期分别对应于“厄尔尼诺现象”和东亚夏季风的“准 2年振荡”。