Planning future fuelbreak strategies using mathematical modeling techniques

Major drainage basins within the Angeles National Forest in southern California USA are aggregated into zones of homogeneous wildland fire damage-potential using multivariate statistical techniques. Mathematical models are utilized to examine the policy implications of ongoing and projected fuel management strategies in different Forest zones based on simulated impacts of fuelbreak construction and maintenance upon two proxies for future damage-potential: the expected area burned and an index of relative value used by Forest planners. Alternative strategies for future fuelbreak investments are evaluated based on model outcomes.