A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

Mangrove Mapping Using Landsat Imagery and Aerial Photographs: Kemaman District, Terengganu, Malaysia

Classification and distribution of mangrove vegetation are vital information for the proper development of a mangrove management plan. In this study, classification for the mangroves of the district of Kemaman were done using both 1 : 5000 aerial photographs and Landsat TM imageries. The coverage by aerial photographs is limited to the coastal and estuarine areas only. Thus, for areas further upstream of the aerial photo coverage, Landsat TM imageries were used. Analysis of aerial photographs and remote sensing images revealed that the mangroves of Kemaman could be classified into 14 different classes of vegetation. All the 14 classes were identified from areas covered by the aerial photographs. For areas covered by the Landsat images only 7 classes of vegetation were identified. The accuracy for aerial photograph and Landsat images are 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. It can be concluded that although both techniques are useful in determining the mangrove vegetation classes, the large 1 : 5000 aerial photographs are more accurate and provided more detailed information comparatively.     

日本国土开发利用及对我国的启示

日本在战后经历了经济高速增长，工业化和城市化快速推进的发展历程，其间土地利用在结构、规模、价格、集约利用等方面发生了巨大变动。本文全面分析了二战之后，日本在经济高速增长、产业结构巨大变动、城市化迅速推进的发展过程中．农业用地、工业用地和城市用地在结构、规模、价格、集约利用程度等方面的特征；日本政府针对经济发展和土地利用的变动和影响。制订的一系列规划调整措施和政策法规体系。通过以上分析，探讨日本在有限的土地资源条件下实现经济高速增长的原因、途径和措施，以及对我国的启示。     

亚热带稻田土壤碳氮磷生态化学计量学特征

为了解稻田土壤中是否存在稳定的土壤有机碳(C)、氮(N)和磷(P)比值,基于亚热带区110个水稻土剖面和587个发生层的土壤调查数据库,在区域尺度上分析了典型水稻土C∶N∶P比值的生态化学计量学特征,并应用相关分析和冗余分析,研究水稻土C∶N∶P比值与土壤-环境因子(地形和母质、土壤发生层、土壤类型和土壤理化性质)的关系.结果显示,亚热带区稻田土壤C∶N、C∶P和N∶P的剖面加权平均值分别为12. 6、49和3. 9,C∶N∶P为38∶3. 2∶1.不同母质起源、不同土壤亚类和不同发生层的水稻土C∶N变异相对较小;但C∶P和N∶P的变异很大,两者均值也远低于全球(186和13. 1)和中国土壤(136和9. 3)的C∶P和N∶P的平均水平.尽管稻田土壤剖面的C∶N∶P相对不稳定,但由于稻田表土生物与环境相互作用强烈,表土C∶N相对稳定(14. 2).这反映长期水耕熟化作用下,稻田表土中C和N仍存在紧密的耦合作用.然而,在稻田土壤剖面上,C∶P和N∶P并不稳定,SOC与全P含量、全N与全P含量也无显著相关性,表明环境变化可能导致土壤C∶N∶P解耦.地形、土壤质地、氧化铁和容重是调控稻田土壤剖面C∶N∶P的关键土壤环境因子.     

泗顶矿区6种土地利用类型土壤微生物群落结构特征

以广西柳州泗顶铅锌矿区的玉米地、菜地、灌木、尾矿库、森林和柑橘园6种不同利用类型土壤为研究对象,采用高通量测序技术,分析了不同土地利用类型土壤微生物群落结构特征及土壤环境因子对微生物群落结构的影响.结果表明,变形菌门（Proteobacteria）是6种土壤的优势菌门,所占比例为31.34%~53.47%,γ-变形菌纲（Gammaproteobacteria）为优势菌纲.冗余分析表明,在重金属含量最高的灌木区,厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）和拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）的丰度与土壤中铅、锌、镉、铜的含量呈现显著正相关;在土壤钠和钾含量较高的玉米地和菜地,浮霉菌门（Planctomycetes）的丰度有所增加,而厚壁菌门和拟杆菌门的丰度则有所下降.在土壤有机质含量较高而总氮、总磷含量较低的柑橘园,酸杆菌门（Acidobacteria）和疣微菌门（Verrucomicrobia）的丰度较高.芽单胞菌门（Gemmatimonadetes）和浮霉菌门的丰度与土壤pH值呈显著正相关.研究结果表明土地利用类型及土壤环境因子对土壤微生物群落结构多样性有显著的影响.     

北部湾南流江流域土地覆盖及生物多样性模拟

以北部湾独流入海河流南流江流域为研究对象,基于研究区2000年和2015年遥感数据解译的土地利用数据以及社会经济等数据,采用CLUE-S模型对未来2030年生态保护情景、自然增长情景以及粮食安全情景的土地利用格局进行了模拟预测,在此基础上采用InVEST模型对流域过去和未来不同情景的生物多样性进行了评估,探讨了流域生物多样性的生境质量和生境退化程度.结果表明：2000~2015年南流江流域建设用地、园地、水域和未利用地呈现出增加趋势,其中建设用地的增幅最大,而耕地和林地减幅最大.流域土地系统中共存在着34种土地网络转移流关系,上游存在24种,中游20种,下游28种,耕地与建设用地、耕地与林地以及林地与园地之间的转换占到流域总土地利用变化的70.74%.CLUE-S模型模拟未来土地利用的Kappa系数达到0.86,表明模型模拟未来情景的土地利用精度满足要求.2000年、2015年、2030年生态保护情景、2030年自然增长情景以及2030年粮食安全情景流域生境质量总得分和平均得分分别为866630,900357,921055,876231,865370和0.7457,0.7747,0.7925,0.7539,0.7466.2030年3种情景的中上游和下游地区生物多样性都呈现出不同程度的改善趋势,而中游地区则表现出退化趋势.     

面向乡村振兴战略的村庄分类方法与实证研究

乡村振兴战略是新时期我国推进乡村发展的重要举措,村庄分类是促进乡村振兴战略规划在村级层面有效落地的先导工作,对于实现国家乡村振兴战略的阶段性目标具有重要意义。《国家乡村振兴战略规划（2018-2022年）》提出了集聚提升类、城郊融合类、特色保护类、搬迁撤并类等四种村庄类型,但并未明确具体的分类原则与方法。针对实践工作需要,本研究基于该四种村庄类型,进一步明确了其二级类,并提出了相应的分类原则与方法;建立了村庄分类模型（VCM）,从村庄特色、村民生存、发展建设、城村联系、村庄功能等五个维度,提出了村庄分类的参考指标体系。选取宁夏回族自治区盐池县作为案例区,基于前述原则、方法与模型,对该县102个行政村进行分类。实证检验表明：本研究提出的原则和方法对于村庄分类具有实践指导价值。需要说明的是,鉴于村庄内外部条件的差异性和复杂性,具体工作时仍需结合实际情况进行部分参数、阈值的设定。