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排序方式: 共有501条查询结果,搜索用时 281 毫秒
1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
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浦东新区城市生态问题探析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
以浦东新区为个案,提出了城市开发建设较为突出的城市平衡发展、河流治理、景观规划等方面的城市生态问题,并阐述了解决方法和对策。掌握并运用生态学原理,对于城市建设和管理具有重要意义。 相似文献
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以2000年和2004年的QuickBird卫星影像解译的徐径镇土地利用类型图为基础,对土地利用类型变化的幅度和土地利用类型之间转换的空间关系进行了研究,同时选取合适的景观格局指数对该区域的景观格局进行了分析。最后,给出结论和建议。 相似文献
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/ The valleys of European piedmonts constitute changing narrow corridors within which water, matter, nutrients, energy, and species flow. The dispersion patterns of these flows have been significantly disturbed since the end of the 18th century. Thus, western European valleys have been changed into complex mosaics by implementation of socioeconomical programs. In order to define future actions allowing the preservation of this "ecocomplex" (Blandin and Lamotte 1988), it is necessary to gather precise information of the landscape dynamics. Hence, the study of the European river valleys must be based upon two major steps: (1)the analysis of the present landscape with suitable remote sensing techniques, allowing us to map the complex mosaic of narrow corridors; and (2) the analysis of temporal landscape development patterns since the first engineering works that have transformed the braided channel system. In this paper, the efficiency of the addition of two techniques is highlighted: (1) the "wavelet merging method" from multispectral and panchromatic SPOT images for the floodplain land-cover mapping, and (2) the historical reconstruction techniques from old maps and archive documents in order to analyze the cumulative impacts of engineering works on landscape diversity. To illustrate the method, a particularly complex case study is chosen: the Arc/Isere confluence (downstream from Albertville, Savoie, France). Remote sensing, field survey, and historical reconstruction allowed us to distinguish two types of spatial units: (1) the "functional sets" characterized by independent state factors (edaphic, hydrological, and topographic) and supporting a limited number of vegetation types (spontaneous or cultivated), and (2) the functional unit (= ecotope), which corresponds to a unique combination of vegetation type/functional set.KEY WORDS: Landscape ecology; Floodplains; Vegetation; Land use; Remote sensing; Historical reconstruction; Mapping; Merging methods; Human impacts; Alps; Isere river; France 相似文献
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A pedagogic problem in forestry and landscape management is to visualize future landscape effects of forest growth and current management activities in the forest. This paper presents a method for forecasting digital image projections of forest landscape dynamics. Static nonlinear regression functions estimate the digital numbers in a Landsat Thematic Mapper image. Regressors used are forest stand variables. By estimating the future forest stand data, based on intermediate treatment and growth, future satellite digital images are created. In a case study example, the future landscape of a forest block in the province of Västernorrland, Sweden, is projected to demonstrate the application of this visualization technique. 相似文献
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Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders. 相似文献
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This study proposes an improved integrated water resource management (IWRM), in which water conservation was analyzed for the entire water use process. A multi-objective optimization method was applied to optimize the IWRM, which investigated the reduction of freshwater consumption and the total water supply cost. Customer's preference for saving water and an end use analysis (EUA) was applied in the water conservation analysis. Taking Tianjin as the study area, a reduction in customer's economic pressure (EP) was utilized to evaluate the degree of the customer's preference for saving water. The results revealed that agriculture had a greater preference for saving water than other sectors, where as the public had the weakest motivation for saving water. Improving the transportation method could contribute 62.1% of the total water savings in the agriculture sector. The optimization of the IWRM demonstrated that the local freshwater savings would be 21.5%, and the total cost for water supplies would decrease by 13%. However, a government subsidy of 87.5 million Yuan would be needed. Additionally, by analyzing the change in the amount of water savings affected by water price, the appropriate water price increase range was suggested to be 1.5–1.7 times the original price. 相似文献