Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

滑坡稳定性评价的非线性方法

在全面分析了滑坡稳定性评价方法的基础上 ,确定了影响滑坡稳定性的相关因素 ,应用BP神经网络建立了滑坡稳定性评价模型。应用表明 ,该模型精度很高。将该模型用于预测红石包和谭家评滑坡稳定性 ,其结果与实际相符。     

20th-century urban landslides in the Basilicata region of Italy

The geology, relief, neotectonics, climate, and vegetation of Basilicata make the region vulnerable to landslides, but the number of reported landslides in the region has increased over recent centuries, and this has been interpreted as a result of changes in land use. This interpretation is confirmed by documentary evidence presented in this article (concentrating on the example of the town of Grassano, where urban landslides are an almost exclusively 20th-century phenomenon), which shows the increase in landslides to have been real, rapid, and caused by humankind.