A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

新疆D矿田金矿资源定量评价

本文在建立D矿田找矿信息层次模型基础上,确定矿田统计单元划分和地质变量提取的赋值原则,将该矿田划分出466个统计单元,提取25个地质变量并进行二态赋值,而后应用数量化理论Ⅲ。特征分析法及勃尔法等方法,建立了矿田金矿资源定量评价模型,定位预测了45个勘探靶区。     

海洋疏浚Mont Carlo数值计算

利用Mont Carlo方法模拟海洋疏浚过程中悬浮泥沙的扩散.结合洋浦近岸海域疏浚工程,计算了悬沙输运轨迹及浓度分布,计算结果较为合理.该模型在近海工程环境影响评价中具有应用价值.     

Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的土壤环境健康风险评价:以PAHs为例

为获得更为合理的健康风险评价结果,并辨识对健康风险影响最大的因素,基于蒙特卡罗随机模拟,运用概率风险评价模型,定量评估了中国上海某居民区土壤中16种PAHs对居民的健康风险水平,并对各参数进行敏感性分析.结果表明,土壤中PAHs造成的健康风险服从对数正态分布,总的致癌风险为3.43×10~(-5)±2.63×10~(-5),最小值为8.10×10~(-7),最大值为2.39×10~(-4),超过10-6的概率为95%,超过10~(-5)的概率为75%,超过10~(-4)的概率小于5%;总的危害商为4.74×10~(-2)±3.42×10~(-2),不超过1,风险较小;在7种具有致癌效应的PAHs中,苯并(a)芘、二苯并(a,h)蒽和苯并(a)蒽是总致癌风险的主要贡献物质,贡献率分别占60.41%、26.84%和6.56%;3种暴露途径中,经口途径是造成致癌风险的主要途径,贡献率为73.22%;对于总致癌风险,人体暴露参数中每日土壤摄入量、暴露周期、暴露皮肤面积敏感度较大,分别为58.35%、50.21%和20.51%;体重具有负敏感性,敏感度为-11.66%.     

基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析

为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下（5%和10%的变异范围）分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景（Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类）的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平...     

蒙特卡洛分析在氯气泄漏事故环境风险评价中的应用研究

气体泄漏事故环境风险系统中存在的不确定性问题影响了定量环境风险评价结果的科学性和实用性.因此,本研究采用蒙特卡洛分析方法对氯气泄漏事故风险系统中的6个风险变量进行分析,并进一步对气体泄漏过程进行仿真模拟,得到模拟结果及其概率分布.同时,将蒙特卡洛分析结果、毒性剂量反应指标和风险受体信息在地理信息系统中进行综合分析,以个...     

基于不确定性分析的垃圾焚烧烟气中重金属的土壤沉积及生态风险评估

采用CALPUFF模式模拟某城市垃圾焚烧烟气中重金属Pb和Cd的地面大气浓度,并借助土壤浓度模型以Monte Carlo模拟不确定性处理方法估算重金属经沉降在土壤中的累积,最后利用潜在生态危害指数法对重金属在土壤中的长期累积量进行生态风险评估.结果表明,Pb和Cd的大气浓度最大值分别为5.59×10-3μg·m-3和5.57×10-4μg·m-3,土壤浓度增量中值最大分别为2.26 mg·kg-1和0.21 mg·kg-1;高生态风险区集中在焚烧炉附近的下风向地区,生态风险主要由Cd贡献,Pb基本无污染风险;城市最大污染点达较高生态危害水平概率为55.30%,农村最大污染点达中等生态危害水平概率达72.92%.此外,对土壤浓度模型的参数进行敏感性分析表明,城、乡区域模拟结果分别对土壤混合厚度和干沉降速率敏感性最强.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟法对水源水体中微囊藻毒素的健康风险评估

调查水源水体中微囊藻毒素MCs(MC-RR、MC-LR和MC-YR)的污染情况,结合调查情况应用蒙特卡洛法(Monte Carlo)模拟量化人群通过饮水途径摄入微囊藻毒素的风险.在珠江西航道沿线设置5个采样点,在2016年1~6月期间共采集90份水样,根据国标(GB/T 20466-2006)推荐的HPLC方法检测水体中的微囊藻毒素,运用专业风险评估软件@Risk7.0,构建非参数概率评估模型,对通过饮水途径摄入微囊藻毒素(暴露)风险进行概率评估.对随机采集90份水源水体中微囊藻毒素MCs质量浓度检测值进行分布拟合,并运用Chi-Squared、Anderson-Darling、Kolmogorov-Smirnov这3种统计方法进行拟合度检验,根据3种评估拟合结果,确定最佳拟合分布模型.结果表明,在检测的90个水样品中,MC-RR的检出率最高,达到51.11%,质量浓度范围为0.001 7~0.386 3μg·L~(-1);其次为MC-LR和MC-YR,检出率分别是47.78%和21.11%,质量浓度范围分别是0.028 5~0.279 6μg·L~(-1)和0.003 0~0.136 2μg·L~(-1),水源水体中3种微囊藻毒素以MC-RR为主,最大检出质量浓度为0.386 3μg·L~(-1),MC-YR的含量最低.采用软件@Risk7.0分布拟合结果显示,MC-LR质量浓度最适的拟合分布为Ext Value Min模型(0.113 91,0.098 462),MC-RR质量浓度最适的拟合分布为Logistic(0.058 064,0.053 044).健康风险评估表明,MC-LR对人体健康危害的风险高于MC-RR的风险,儿童比成人更易于受到MCs污染的威胁.MC-LR对儿童健康危害的致癌年风险数值大于美国环保署(USEPA)推荐的最大可接受风险水平1×10-4;MC-LR对成人的致癌暴露年风险数值大于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受风险水平5×10-5,表明水源水体中的MCs对人体健康存在潜在的危害,有必要加强饮用水源水体的保护与监控,为有效控制水源地水质污染和更好地保障人民健康奠定基础.