Choosing policy instruments for controlling ozone depleting substances in a developing context: the case of Chile

Chile ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990 which sets out an agenda for the reduction and then elimination of ozone depleting substances (ODS); however, by 1998 the country had not yet defined a strategy to encourage greater compliance, so that in the same year the National Environmental Commission decided to examine the policy options available. This paper examines the process followed to develop this strategy. As a first step it was necessary to look at how far the implicit policy of "business as usual" could be stretched without jeopardizing Chile's compliance obligations. A second step included quantifying compliance costs and their impact on different policy instruments and so policy choice. Finally, the attitudes of decision-makers or participants were identified, by interviews with officials of the different public agents involved, in order to weigh their views about policy. A strategy was proposed, based on this information, which the Chilean regulator has used, although not in its entirety. The methodology developed could well be useful for developing-country Protocol signatories building their own appropriate compliance strategy.     

保护臭氧层谈判中的美欧博弈

臭氧层损耗是重要的全球环境问题之一。最早认识到臭氧层危害的美国率先在国内立法控制相关物质,然而另一大经济体——欧共体,在这一方面却行动迟缓。在保护臭氧层的国际谈判中,美欧之间相互妥协,最终达成了对氟氯烃化合物(CFCs)进行限控的《蒙特利尔议定书》。美欧之间的分歧来自国内化工业巨头的影响,国际经济变动影响外交决策。国际环境问题背后隐藏的经济关系与大国的领导作用是影响国际环境合作的主要因素。     

Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO₂eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO₂eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO₂eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.     

消耗臭氧层物质(ODS)管理研究

自从人类发现南极上空臭氧层空洞以来,国际社会和各国政府为保护臭氧层,加速淘汰消耗臭氧层物质(简称ODS)做了不懈努力.自1989年《蒙特利尔议定书》生效至今,已经召开了25次缔约方大会,超过191个国家和地区加入了该议定书.中国于1991年加入该议定书后,积极履约,进行了大量关于ODS淘汰工作,当前还在进行加强地方消耗臭氧层物质淘汰履约能力建设二期项目工作,加快提升中国的ODS物质淘汰工作进度.     

消耗臭氧层物质对平流层臭氧的影响预测

采用美国戈达德航天中心的雨云气象卫星臭氧全球网格资料,从中截取中国大陆主体部分(69.375°E～139.375°E、14.5°N～54.5°N)的数据,分析臭氧柱浓度变化的统计特性.结果表明,1979～1998年,大陆主体上空区域的臭氧柱浓度下降趋势明显,青藏高原上空的臭氧柱浓度下降速度较全国水平略快.假定其他缔约国均履行蒙特利尔议定书的前提下,以1980年臭氧柱浓度情形为基准,利用臭氧柱浓度与消耗臭氧层物质浓度之间的关系,预测了中国履行蒙特利尔议定书与不履行两种情形下,2001～2050年中国上空臭氧柱浓度变化情况.结果表明,中国履约受控情形下,2050年大陆主体部分上空的臭氧柱浓度将与其1980年的水平相近;不受控情形下,柱浓度将持续下降,2050年整个大陆主体上空绝大部分地区臭氧柱浓度值均低于240DU.     

气相色谱-质谱法快速筛查气态制冷剂产品中的热点管控类卤代烃

建立了利用气相色谱-质谱法快速筛查气态制冷剂产品中的10种热点管控类卤代烃的分析方法。采用气密性微量注射器对气态制冷剂样品进行取样,刺透瓶盖隔垫加入到顶空瓶中,自动进样;以GS-GasPro(多孔层开管,60 m×0.32 mm)为色谱柱,采用电子轰击离子源,全扫描模式采集。测试结果显示:目标物的体积分数在0.50%~100.00%范围内,相对响应因子的相对标准偏差(RSD)均小于20%;线性相关系数r均在0.999以上;检出限(3.143倍标准偏差)为0.01%~0.05%。对实际样品进行加标回收,回收率为79.5%~102%,测定值RSD为0.5%~3.1%。该方法可为快速、准确、批量筛查气态制冷剂产品中的多种热点管控类卤代烃提供技术支撑。     

Ambient halocarbon mixing ratios in 45 Chinese cities

During this study 158 whole air samples were collected in 45 Chinese cities in January and February 2001. The spatial distribution of different classes of halocarbons in the Chinese urban atmosphere, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Halon-1211, and other chlorinated compounds is presented and discussed. Most of these compounds were enhanced compared to background levels. However, the mean enhancement of CFCs was relatively small, with CFC-12 and CFC-11 increases of 6% (range 1–31%) and 10% (range 2–89%), respectively, with respect to the global background. On the contrary, strongly enhanced levels of CFC replacement compounds and halogenated compounds used as solvents were measured. The average Halon-1211 concentration exceeded the background of 4.3 pptv by 75% and was higher than 10 pptv in several cities. Methyl chloride mixing ratios were also strongly elevated (78% higher than background levels), which is likely related to the widespread use of coal and biofuel in China.     

Risks to the stratospheric ozone shield in the Anthropocene: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Ozone Layer

Crutzen (1974) and Crutzen and Ehhalt (1977) presented two key papers in Ambio that in Ambioexemplify how science first revealed to humankind the potential for damage to our ozone shield in the Anthropocene. Crutzen’s (1974) review is a sweeping summary of the risks to the ozone layer from supersonic aircraft, chlorofluorocarbons, as well as nuclear weapons testing and nuclear war. Crutzen and Ehhalt (1977) described how the nitrous oxide produced from fertilizers could pose another threat to the stability of the stratospheric ozone layer. The two papers are part of a body of influential scientific work that led to the pioneering Montreal Protocol to Protect the Earth’s Ozone Layer to phase out production of chlorofluorocarbons (in 1987), as well as national decisions that slowed or stopped production of supersonic planes (in the 1970s). They remain guideposts today for ongoing international negotiations regarding reducing emissions from fertilizer and limiting nuclear testing.     

The impacts of urban sprawl on ecological connectivity in the Montreal Metropolitan Region

Urban sprawl is a widely recognized phenomenon in many major cities worldwide and is a significant land use planning and management issue. This process has many impacts on the ecological function and structure of the landscape. In this article, we analyze the effects of urban sprawl on the ecological patterns and processes in the Montreal Metropolitan Region (MMR) between 1966 and 2010. The dispersed sprawl of low-density urban areas within the territory during this period sharply increased the fragmentation of the territory, isolating the few remaining natural spaces and decreasing their ecological connectivity and, ultimately, biodiversity. The results obtained clearly show that land-use changes that occurred in the MMR have caused profound changes in landscape properties, both structurally and functionally, and especially from 1981 to 2010. In 1966, around 45% of the land had a high or very high level of connectivity, and almost 38% in 1981. By 2010 only 6.5% of the landscape was connected and 73% of the territory possessed no or low connectivity.     

GROUND WATER OF THE ISLAND OF MONTREAL,CANADA1

ABSTRACT: The geochemistry and nature of the flow of ground water not only control the supply potential but constitute clues to the whole geology of an area. A study has been made of the largest available assemblage of data from 161 wells for the Island of Montreal collected by the Geological Survey of Canada in 1951–53. Data indicated that the system is generally subartesian, flowing from the principal topographically high areas towards the shores of the Island. As the probable use is about 13% of the estimated recharge of 140 million liters per day, most wells could be supplied by local recharge. The study has confirmed the predominance of calcium bicarbonate ground water from the carbonate sequence. The waters appeared to be saturated with respect to CaCO₃ in all but 10 wells. The presence of other types of waters suggests the effects of the igneous intrusions of the area, the post-glacial marine submergence and the upward movement of waters from deep sources through fault and other structural zones. Confirmation of the significant variations in chemical composition in some neighboring wells indicated the future need for repetitive sampling from specific horizons for chemical and isotopic analyses.