Death and injury in earthquakes

The assumption that the ratio of mortality to morbidity will approximate 1:3 in earthquake disasters is investigated. When it occurs, a 1:3 ratio is most likely to coincide with a Richter magnitude in the range 6.5–7.4, but many other ratios of death to injuries may instead be probable. For each individual disaster the pattern of casualties is likely to be very heterogeneous, but it would be easier to discover regularities if a more standardized definition of 'injury' could be found.     

Natural Products: Repellency and Toxicity of Wild Tomato Leaf Extracts to the Two-Spotted Spider Mite,Tetranychus urticae Koch

The potential of using phytochemicals from leaves of wild tomato for controlling the two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch, is explored in this study as a promising alternative to the use of synthetic pesticides. Wild tomato accessions of Lycopersicon hirsutum plants that are not consumed by humans were planted under greenhouse conditions for mass production of leaves. Crude extracts from leaves of three accessions of L. hirsutum, six accessions of L. hirsutum f. glabratum, and one accession each of L. pennellii and L. pimpinellifolium were prepared in chloroform, ethanol and hexane. Two spider mite bioassays, one a measure of antibiosis and the other a measure of repellency, were utilized to determine the acaricidal performance of the crude extracts. The bioassay for antibiosis was a 6-h no-choice test. The bioassay for repellency utilized a ring bioassay. Chloroform leaf extracts of L. hirsutum f. glabratum accessions (PI-251304, PI-134417, PI-134418, and PI-126449) exhibited greatest antibiotic activity on two-spotted spider mites; the hexane extracts exhibited greatest repellency. Extracts from PI-251304, PI-126449, PI-134417, and PI-134418 were especially lethal (chloroform) or repellent (hexane). We investigated differences in chemical composition of the crude leaf extracts that may explain the observed differences in mortality and repellency among the different accessions. Major chemical compounds (α -curcumene, α -zingiberene, trans-caryophyllene, 2-undecanone, and 2-tridecanone) known to have pesticidal efficacy were detected and quantified in the crude leaf extracts using a gas chromatograph (GC) equipped with a mass spectrometer (GC/MS). Lethality of extracts was mainly associated with the presence of high concentrations of 2-tridecanone; repellency of extracts was mainly associated with the presence of trans-caryophyllene. Leaf extracts of L. hirsutum f. glabratum accessions that contain significant quantities of 2-tridecanone and/or trans-caryophyllene could be useful for managing populations of spider mites, which could reduce reliance on synthetic pesticides.     

Entrainment mortality of Ichthyoplankton: Detectability and precision of estimates

The ability to detect and to develop a precise and accurate estimate of the entrainment mortality fraction is an important step in projecting power plant impacts on future fish population levels. Recent work indicates that these mortailities may be considerably less than 100% for some fish species in the early life stages. Point estimates of the entrainment mortality fraction have been developed based on probabilistic arguments, but the precision of these estimates has not been studied beyond the simple statistical test of the null hypothesis that no entrainment mortaility exists.The ability to detect entrainment mortality is explored as a function of the sample sizes (numbers of organisms collected) at the intake and discharge sampling stations of a power plant and of the proportion of organisms found alive in the intake samples (intake survival). Minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error (probability of accepting the null hypothesis of no entrainment mortality when there is mortality) are considered. Increasing sample size and/or decreasing sampling mortality will decrease the minimum detectable entrainment mortality, confidence interval width, and type II error for a given level of type I error.The results of this study are considered in the context of designing useful monitoring programs for determining the entrainment mortality fraction. Preliminary estimates of intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to obtain estimates of the sample size needed for a specified level of confidence interval width or type II error. Final estimates of the intake survival and the entrainment mortality fraction can be used to determine the minimum detectable entrainment mortality and the type II error.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

Determinants of chorus tenure in barking treefrogs (Hyla gratiosa)

In all species of anuran amphibians studied to date, male mating success is positively correlated with male chorus tenure (the number of nights that a male is present in breeding aggregations), yet males spend only a small portion of the total breeding season in choruses. Three hypotheses might explain abbreviated chorus tenure in anuran amphibians: (1) mortality, (2) energy limitations, and (3) movement among choruses. I tested these hypotheses in a study of the barking treefrog (Hyla gratiosa), a species with very abbreviated chorus tenure. Mortality accounted for the short tenures of some males: an estimated 20% of males died while calling in the chorus. Energy limitations were an important determinant of chorus tenure. Males lost weight over successive nights in the chorus, and males with longer chorus tenures were in better condition on their first night in the chorus, lost condition more slowly, and were in poorer condition on their last night in the chorus than were males with shorter chorus tenures. Males that I fed crickets as they left the chorus returned sooner and for more nights than did control (unfed) males. Movement between ponds did not explain abbreviated chorus tenure: less than 16% of the males called at more than one pond, and these males increased their chorus tenures by a median of only 2.5 nights by calling in another chorus. Thus, abbreviated chorus tenure in H. gratiosa appears to be primarily the result of energy limitations, with mortality playing a secondary role.     

Are current Chinese national ambient air quality standards on 24-hour averages for particulate matter sufficient to protect public health?

With rapid economic development and urbanization in recent decades, China has experienced the worsening of ambient air quality. For better air quality management to protect human health, Chinese government revised national ambient air quality standards(NAAQS) for particulate matter(PM) in 2012(GB3095-2012). To assess the effectiveness of current NAAQS for PM on public health in Chinese population, we conducted a metaanalysis on published studies examining the mortality risk of short-term exposure to PM with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm(PM_(10) and PM_(2.5)) in China. The reported24-hour concentrations of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) in studies ranged from 43.5 to 150.1 μg/m~3 and 37.5 to 176.7 μg/m~3. In the pooled excess, mortality risk estimates of short-term exposure to PM.In specific, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(10), we observed increases of 0.40%(95%CI: 0.33%,0.47%), 0.57%(95%CI: 0.44%, 0.70%) and 0.49%(95%CI: 0.40%, 0.58%) in total, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(2.5), we observed increases of 0.51%(95%CI: 0.38%, 0.63%), 0.62%(95%CI: 0.52%, 0.73%) and 0.75%(95%CI: 0.54%, 0.95%) in total,respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Finally, we derived 125 μg/m~3 for PM_(10) and 62.5 μg/m~3 for PM_(2.5) as 24-hour recommendation values based on the pooled estimates. Our results indicated that current Chinese NAAQS for PM could be sufficient in mitigating the excess mortality risk from short-term exposure to ambient PM. However, future research on longterm exposure cohort studies in Chinese population is also essential in revising annual averages for PM in Chinese NAAQS.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

Weather-mediated natural selection on arrival time in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota)

An unusually long period of cold weather in May 1996 caused extensive mortality among insectivorous cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in the northern and central Great Plains. We analyzed how viability selection affected spring arrival time in a migratory Nebraska population by comparing capture histories of survivors with those of birds known to have died and by documenting how arrival time changed in the year following the selection event. Surviving birds had significantly later first-capture dates (an index of arrival time) in the years prior to selection than those that died; a significant selection differential suggested directional selection for birds that arrived later. Colony sites were occupied significantly later following the selection event, and the distribution of first-capture dates in the season after selection was significantly shifted toward later arrivals. Offspring of the survivors tended to arrive later than birds of the same age prior to the selection event. While major weather-caused mortality events of this magnitude are rare in the study area, spells of cold weather severe enough to cause limited mortality are frequent in April and early May. At least 25 probable mortality events of varying severity were identified in the last 50 years based on climatological data. Periodic weather-mediated selection against early arrival constrains the cliff swallow’s breeding season and may partly prevent directional selection for earlier nesting. Received: 19 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

Air pollution and liver cancer: A systematic review

Air pollution has previously been linked to several adverse health outcomes, but the potential association between air pollution and liver cancer remains unclear. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science from inception to 10 October 2021, and manually reviewed the references of relevant papers to further identify any related literature investigating possible associations between air pollution and liver cancer. Risk estimates values were represented by statistical associations based on quantitative analyses. A total of 13 cohort studies obtained from 11 articles were included, with 10,961,717 participants. PM_2.5 was the most frequently examined pollutant (included in 11 studies), followed by NO₂ and NO_x (included in 6 studies), and fewer studies focused on other pollutants (PM_{2.5 absorbance}, PM₁₀, PM_2.5–10, O₃, and BC). In all the 16 associations for liver cancer mortality, 14 associations reported the effect of PM_2.5 on liver cancer mortality. Eight associations on PM_2.5 were significant, showing a suggestive association between PM_2.5 and liver cancer mortality. Among 24 associations shown by risk estimates for liver cancer incidence, most associations were not statistically significant. For other air pollutants, no positive associations were presented in these studies. PM_2.5 was the most frequently examined pollutant, followed by NO₂ and NO_x, and fewer studies focused on other pollutants. PM_2.5 was associated with liver cancer mortality, but there was no association for other air pollutants. Future research should use advanced statistical methods to further assess the impact of multiple air pollutants on liver cancer in the changing socio-environmental context.