Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Integrated economic-ecological analysis and evaluation of management strategies on nutrient abatement in the Rhine basin

Management of river basins involves the making of informed choices about the desired levels of economic activities and ecosystem functioning in the catchment. Information on the economic and ecological effects of measures as well as their spatial distribution is therefore needed. This paper proposes the following instruments to support decision-making in river basins: (1) the linking of models and indicators to describe the economic and ecological effects of management actions and their spatial distribution and (2) an extended evaluation framework that aims to evaluate management actions on three objectives for sustainable river management. These are cost-effectiveness, spatial equity, and environmental quality. This paper illustrates the potential of these instruments for river basin management by a case-study on nutrient management in the Rhine basin. In this case-study four nutrient abatement strategies are formulated, based on policies of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine and the North Sea Commission. These strategies are analysed and evaluated on their contribution to the three management objectives. Results show that none of these strategies score highest on cost-effectiveness, spatial equity and environmental quality simultaneously. It appears that cost-effectiveness is in conflict with environmental quality, whereas spatial equity and cost-effectiveness show quite close correspondence. This means that a trade-off has to be made between costs and spatial equity on the one hand, and environmental standards on the other hand. This paper offers a framework to make these trade-offs more explicit and provides quantitative information on cause-effect relationships, economic and environmental effects and the spatial distribution of these effects for various management strategies. This information can be particularly useful in the development of compromises required to establish international agreement and co-operation.     

国外典型水环境综合整治案例分析与启示

针对我国河流湖泊水环境状况不容乐观现状,以日本琵琶湖、欧洲莱茵河、英国泰晤士河流域综合整治为例进行了分析研究,提出我国治理河流湖泊水环境需要5个方面开展工作:建立强有力的流域管理机构;坚决控制污染源;加大对环保事业的资金投入;政府经济政策向环保倾斜;把市场经济引入流域治理等。     

跨界流域环境管理与预警——欧洲经验与启示

工业革命以后,欧洲流域的污染事故进入高发期,欧洲各国以流域为单位,共同商讨对策,联合开展治理工作,使流域水环境得到了很大的改善.目前,欧洲对流域的管理已经形成了一套较为科学、成熟的模式.针对中国水环境污染事故频发的状况,总结了莱茵河流域管理模式和多瑙河流域预警系统的发展经验,对构建中国流域范围内环境预警系统提出了相关思...     

MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Eliciting preferences for wetland services: a way to manage conflicting land uses

A choice experiment was used to analyse the preferences of residents neighbouring the Erstein polder (Alsace, France) for the different services that it provides. The heterogeneous nature of these preferences was shown through the use of a latent class model. Whilst the population as a whole values the improvement in water quality and the contribution, even partial, to flood protection, preferences differ when it comes to biodiversity and public access to the site. This study shows the potential conflicts between the different uses of the Erstein polder. These conflicts represent different communication themes for the site managers.     

Models predicting the fate of pollutants in rivers

The spill of 2,4,‐D in the Rhine river was used to show the evolution from simple to sophisticated models. The first simulation was done with an analytical solution of the dispersion‐advection equation without elimination. Elimination was introduced in a second simulation. The third simulation was carried out with a numerical model. This included elimination and variable dispersion. The lack of data limited the use of very detailed models.     

Occurrence of glucocorticogenic activity in various surface waters in The Netherlands

Considering the important role that surface waters serve for drinking water production, it is important to know if these resources are under the impact of contaminants. Apart from environmental pollutants such as pesticides, compounds such as (xeno)estrogens have received al lot of research attention and several large monitoring campaigns have been carried out to assess estrogenic contamination in the aquatic environment. The introduction of novel in vitro bioassays enables researchers to study if – and to what extent – water bodies are under the impact of less-studied (synthetic) hormone active compounds. The aim of the present study was to carry out an assessment on the presence and extent of glucocorticogenic activity in Dutch surface waters that serve as sources for drinking water production. The results show glucocorticogenic activity in the range of <LOD – 2.4 ng dexamethasone equivalents L⁻¹ (dex EQs) in four out of eight surface waters. An exploratory time-series study to obtain a more complete picture of the yearly average of fluctuating glucocorticogenic activities at two sample locations demonstrated glucocorticogenic activities ranging between <LOD – 2.7 ng dex EQs L⁻¹. Although immediate human health effects are unlikely, the environmental presence of glucocorticogenic compounds in the ng L⁻¹ range compels further environmental research and assessment.     

莱茵河流域防洪规划——发展及其实施(论文摘编)

The River Rhine situatedin the middle of central Europe is a striking example for the diverging con-cerns of natural wetland schemes and human uses.The River Rhine basin covers an area of190000km2andis settled by50million people,livingin nine different countries.Onlyin the19th century the naturalmoving water courses of the River Rhine were fixedin a singular riverbed allowingthe human utilization ofthe flood prone areas by agriculture,settlement andinfrastructure.Extreme floods in the last …     

Conceptual classification model for Sustainable Flood Retention Basins

The aim of this paper is to recommend a rapid conceptual classification model for Sustainable Flood Retention Basins (SFRB) used to control runoff in a temperate climate. An SFRB is an aesthetically pleasing retention basin predominantly used for flood protection adhering to sustainable drainage and best management practices. The classification model was developed on the basis of a database of 141 SFRB using the River Rhine catchment in Baden (part of Baden-Württemberg, Germany) as a case study. It is based on an agglomerative cluster analysis and is intended to be used by engineers and scientists to adequately classify the following different types of SFRB: Hydraulic Flood Retention Basin, Traditional Flood Retention Basin, Sustainable Flood Retention Wetland, Aesthetic Flood Retention Wetland, Integrated Flood Retention Wetland and Natural Flood Retention Wetland. The selection of classification variables was supported by a principal component analysis. The identification of SFRB in the data set was based on a Ward cluster analysis of 34 weighted classification variables. Scoring tables were defined to enable the assignment of the six SFRB definitions to retention basins in the data set. The efficiency of these tables was based on a scoring system which gave the conceptual model for the example case study sites an overall efficiency of approximately 60% (as opposed to 17% by chance). This conceptual classification model should be utilized to improve communication by providing definitions for SFRB types. The classification definitions are likely to be applicable for other regions with both temperate oceanic and temperate continental climates.