A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Safety assessment of the film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) process through a system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)

Film boiling chemical vapor infiltration (FB-CVI) is considered as one of the fastest process methodologies for manufacturing carbon-carbon (C–C) composite products and possesses various advantages compared to conventional methodologies. However, there are safety concerns associated with this process for large-scale manufacturing, mainly owing to the intrinsic nature of the precursor and the process conditions. Considering the multifunctional interactions of the various systems during the process, a system-theoretic process analysis (STPA)/system theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) model is used to perform a safety analysis of the hazardous states of the FB-CVI process at the system level. As a case study, the FB-CVI process equipment employed for the manufacturing of C–C composites is considered. The safety constraints present in the system are assessed for adequacy through a hazard analysis by STPA/STAMP. The analysis through STPA/STAMP demonstrated the capability to create proactive strategies for the design and realization of process equipment that can be employed to manufacture C–C composite products through the FB-CVI process.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Sources, distribution, and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in Nairobi City, Kenya

The distribution and sources of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air and surface waters were monitored in Nairobi City using triolein-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The SPMDs were extracted by dialysis using n-hexane, followed by cleanup by adsorption chromatography on silica gel cartridges. Sample analysis was done by GC-ECD and confirmed by GC–MS. Separation of means was achieved by analysis of variance, followed by pair-wise comparison using the t-test (p≤ 0.05). The total OCPs ranged between 0.018 – 1.277 ng/m³ in the air and <LOD – 1391.000 ng/m³ in surface waters. Based on the results, the means of Industrial Area, Dandora and Kibera were not significantly different (p≤ 0.05), but were higher (p≤ 0.05) than those of City square and Ngong’ Forest. The results revealed non-significant (p≤ 0.05) contribution of long-range transport to OCP pollution in Nairobi City. This indicated possible presence of point sources of environmental OCPs in the city. The water-air fugacity ratios indicated that volatilization and deposition played an important role in the spatial distribution of OCPs in Nairobi City. This indicated that contaminated surface waters could be major sources of human exposure to OCPs, through volatilization. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) determined from inhalation of atmospheric OCPs were 2.3745  ×  10^?13 – 1.6845  ×  10^?11 (adult) and 5.5404  ×  10^?13 – 3.9306  ×  10^?11 (child) in the order: Dandora > Kibera > Industrial Area > City Square > Ngong’ Forest. However, these were lower than the USEPA acceptable risks, 10^?6 – 10^?4. This study concluded that atmospheric OCPs did not pose significant cancer risks to the residents.     

农业土壤危险废物污染的风险管理

从环境风险管理出发,探讨危险废物对农业土壤污染的途径,提出土壤危险废物污染的风险管理内容和方法,初步建立辽宁省农业土壤危险废物污染的预警指标体系。     

销毁遗弃化学武器的环境风险评价方法研究

为履行《禁止化学武器公约》，各缔约国销毁化学武器的工作已启动。根据当前世界上化学武器的销毁情况，并针对二战期间在中国遗弃的化学武器的特点，给出了一套适应化学武器销毁流程的环境风险评价方法和技术。这套方法对将在我国进行的销毁遗弃化学武器风险评价工作有一定的实际意义。     

环境风险评价研究综述

论述了环境风险评价研究的有关基本概念以及主要研究内容的发展，指出了风险评价存在的不足，并在此基础上提出一些合理建议。     

加强城市环境风险管理,促进和谐社会建设

针对我国目前非正常死亡长期据高不下现状,分析了小尺度环境安全问题成因特点,提出用加强城市环境风险管理作为对策,并具体讨论了环境安全标准、环境安全责任、环境安全立法、环境安全经济、环境安全管理、环境安全科研等相关问题。     

Hybridization between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and the wild species Aegilops geniculata and A. biuncialis under experimental field conditions

Hybridization between Aegilops geniculata, A. biuncialis and bread wheat Triticum aestivum has been evaluated during two seasons under simulated field conditions to estimate the field hybridization rate under Central Spain conditions. The mean frequencies of hybridization between A. biuncialis and A. geniculata with wheat were 0.34% and 0.31%, respectively. Data from 10 hybrid plants for each combination showed that hybrids can be partially fertile by backcrossing with wheat parent, with percent averages of 3.17 grains/spikelets for A. biuncialis × wheat hybrids and 2.87 grains/spikelets for A. geniculata × wheat hybrids. Self-pollination, although at very low rates, was also possible in hybrids. The potential risks associated with natural hybridization in the context of transgenic wheat cultivation are discussed.     

Toxic metals in sewage sludge-amended soils: has promotion of beneficial use discounted the risks?

Land application of contaminated waste products has been defended as beneficial use by some scientists and regulators, based on the premise that the behavior of any toxins accumulated in soils from this practice is reasonably well understood and will not have detrimental agronomic or environmental impacts into the foreseeable future. In this review, I use the case of toxic metals in sewage sludges applied to agricultural land to illustrate that metal behavior in soils and plant uptake is difficult to generalize because it is strongly dependent on the nature of the metal, sludge, soil properties and crop. Nevertheless, permitted agricultural loadings of toxic metals from sewage sludges are typically regulated using the sole criterion of total metal loading or concentrations in soils. Several critical generalizing assumptions about the behavior of sludge-borne metals in soil-crop systems, built into the US EPA risk assessment for metals, have tended to underestimate risks and are shown not to be well justified by published research. It is argued that, in the absence of a basic understanding of metal behavior in each specific situation, a more precautionary approach to toxic metal additions to soils is warranted.