连云港市碳排放“双向”分析及碳达峰情景分析与预测

为探究连云港市碳排放特征,实现“碳达峰”“碳中和”的目标,以2011—2020年连云港市的碳排放量数据为核心,采用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）以及岭回归方法进行碳排放量数据的“双向”分析。首先,根据连云港市2011—2020年能源消耗数据,“反向”核算出连云港市历年的碳排放量,结果表明,连云港市碳排放量呈现逐年持续上升趋势;其次,选取人口因素、人均地区生产总值、城市化率、能源结构、产业结构为主要因素,构建了STIRPAT模型这一“正向”预测媒介,采用岭回归分析法得到了连云港市的碳排放量拟合模型,结果表明,不同的因素对连云港市碳排放量的影响程度存在差异;最后,通过情景分析法预设6种连云港市未来发展情景模型,对连云港市的碳排放量进行了预测,结果表明,中增长-高减排的发展模式更适合连云港市,将于2030年以4 788.9万t的碳排放量实现达峰。针对这一发展模式要求,提出连云港市应积极调整能源结构比例、加快产业结构优化等相关建议。     

A provider-based water planning and management model--WaterSim 4.0--for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Uncertainty in future water supplies for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Phoenix) are exacerbated by the near certainty of increased, future water demands; water demand may increase eightfold or more by 2030 for some communities. We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for Phoenix termed WaterSim 4.0. The model combines a FORTRAN library with Microsoft C# to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and groundwater availability. This paper describes model development and rationale. Water providers receive surface water, groundwater, or both depending on their portfolio. Runoff from two riverine systems supplies surface water to Phoenix while three alluvial layers that underlie the area provide groundwater. Water demand was estimated using two approaches. One approach used residential density, population projections, water duties, and acreage. A second approach used per capita water consumption and separate population growth estimates. Simulated estimates of initial groundwater for each provider were obtained as outputs from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Salt River Valley groundwater flow model (GFM). We compared simulated estimates of water storage with empirical estimates for modeled reservoirs as a test of model performance. In simulations we modified runoff by 80%-110% of the historical estimates, in 5% intervals, to examine provider-specific responses to altered surface water availability for 33 large water providers over a 25-year period (2010-2035). Two metrics were used to differentiate their response: (1) we examined groundwater reliance (GWR; that proportion of a providers' portfolio dependent upon groundwater) from the runoff sensitivity analysis, and (2) we used 100% of the historical runoff simulations to examine the cumulative groundwater withdrawals for each provider. Four groups of water providers were identified, and discussed. Water portfolios most reliant on Colorado River water may be most sensitive to potential reductions in surface water supplies. Groundwater depletions were greatest for communities who were either 100% dependent upon groundwater (urban periphery), or nearly so, coupled with high water demand projections. On-going model development includes linking WaterSim 4.0 to the GFM in order to more precisely model provider-specific estimates of groundwater, and provider-based policy options that will enable "what-if" scenarios to examine policy trade-offs and long-term sustainability of water portfolios.     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论.笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似.如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到2020年可能会超过23万人.为此,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面.     

Evaluation of recycling policies for PET bottles based on multiattribute utility indices

This study focused on waste plastic, especially the polyethylene telephthalate (PET) bottle as representative waste, which has been assigned as goods to be recycled by the Packaging Waste Recycling Law in Japan. We developed a plastic transport model which explained the entire flow of plastic from the production stage to the disposal stage within an the evaluation model of plastic recycle policy based on multiattribute utility theory. This model is designed to be used by local municipal governments in supporting the evaluation of the PET bottle recycling policy. In evaluating the plastics recycling policy, we selected indices relating to economy, ecology, and rate of resource recycling. The results indicate that when the evaluation of the material recycling policy and thermal recycling policy in the model city were characterized in terms of their economic and environmental aspects the thermal recycling policy had the highest utility within our scenario. Received: July 31, 1998 / Accepted: January 26, 1999     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

The potential of public engagement in sustainable waste management: designing the future for biosolids in New Zealand

Strategies for beneficial use of biosolids in New Zealand and elsewhere are currently focused primarily on land application. The long-term success of these and other strategies is dependent not only on technical factors, but also on their environmental, economic, social and cultural sustainability. This paper briefly reviews the situation with respect to biosolids management in New Zealand, where land application is not yet widespread; the rise in public opposition to land application in the United States; and the biosolids industry's approach to public engagement. We argue that, at least until recently, the industry has misinterpreted the nature and meaning of public opposition and thus substituted public relations for public engagement. We argue that genuine public engagement is necessary and that its purpose cannot be to gain public acceptance for an already-decided-upon strategy. It therefore calls for humility among biosolids managers, including a willingness to open up the framing of 'the problem', to acknowledge areas of uncertainty, and to recognise the role of values in 'technical' decision-making. We then present and analyse an example of the use of the scenario workshop process for public participation in biosolids management policy in Christchurch, New Zealand, and conclude that scenario workshops and related methods represent an opportunity to enhance sustainable waste management when certain conditions are met.