我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

Evaluation of recycling policies for PET bottles based on multiattribute utility indices

This study focused on waste plastic, especially the polyethylene telephthalate (PET) bottle as representative waste, which has been assigned as goods to be recycled by the Packaging Waste Recycling Law in Japan. We developed a plastic transport model which explained the entire flow of plastic from the production stage to the disposal stage within an the evaluation model of plastic recycle policy based on multiattribute utility theory. This model is designed to be used by local municipal governments in supporting the evaluation of the PET bottle recycling policy. In evaluating the plastics recycling policy, we selected indices relating to economy, ecology, and rate of resource recycling. The results indicate that when the evaluation of the material recycling policy and thermal recycling policy in the model city were characterized in terms of their economic and environmental aspects the thermal recycling policy had the highest utility within our scenario. Received: July 31, 1998 / Accepted: January 26, 1999     

室内外空气污染暴露评价

介绍了国外对室内外空气污染暴露评价的各种方法，并运用微环境结合问卷调查的方法，选择了5种主要的空气污染物；甲醛、二氧化硫、氮氧化物，氮和氡作为检测评价的对象，初步评价了北京市各年龄层次人群的污染物暴露水平。结果表明，大部分暴露量源于室内环境，尤其是工作（或学习）场所及住宅；各年龄层次人群的甲醛日平均暴露量均超过相关环境标准，而其它污染物均不超标；室内空气污染特别是因装修引起的室内空气污染应得到重视。     

基于改进TOPSIS法的规划环评情景方案建立方法及应用

目前,情景分析法在规划环评中进行应用时,情景方案的建立方法仍存在较大不确定性。针对这一问题,结合广西石化产业规划环评,为在广西区6个重点城市分布44个石化项目建立多套可行方案,以供后续方案筛选。通过层次分析法计算出影响因素特性的权重,将改进后的多属性决策TOPSIS方法引入规划环评,并与情景分析法相结合。探讨了基于TOPSIS法对构建情景方案的影响因素进行筛选,并最终确定核心因子的新方法。结论为：利用筛选出的三种核心因子——规划相容性、资源环境因子和产业链结构——构建出了18套情景方案,作为规划环评的初始可行方案,并在三维坐标系中分别将这些方案表示出来,从而实现了将方案定量化、形象化,为规划环评中后续方案筛选提供了定量化科学依据。     

Modelling the impacts of land-use and drainage density on the water balance of a lowland–floodplain landscape in northeast Germany

This study presents the modelling approach and impact assessment of different strategies for managing wetland water resources and groundwater dynamics of landscapes which are characterised by the hydrological interactions of floodplains and the adjacent lowlands. The assessment of such impacts is based on the analysis of simulation results of complex scenarios of land-use changes and changes of the density of the drainage-network. The method has been applied to the 198 km² Lower Havel River catchment as a typical example of a lowland–floodplain landscape. The model used consists of a coupled soil water and groundwater model, where the latter one is additionally coupled to the surface channel network. Thus, the hydrological processes of the variable saturated soil zone as well as lateral groundwater flow and the interactions between surface water and groundwater are simulated in an integrated manner. The model was validated for several years of significantly different meteorological conditions. The comparison of lateral and vertical water balance components showed the dominance of lateral flow processes and the importance of the interactions between surface water and groundwater for the overall water balance and the hydrological state of that type of landscape.The simulation of land-use change scenarios showed only minor effects of land-use change on the water balance and groundwater recharge. Changes of groundwater recharge were particularly small within the wetland areas being part of the floodplain where interactions between surface water and groundwater are most pronounced. Alterations in vertical groundwater recharge were counter-balanced by the lateral interaction between groundwater and surface water. More significant deviations in groundwater recharge and storage were observed in the more peripheral areas towards the catchment boundaries which are characterised by greater groundwater distance from the surface and less intense of ground water–surface water interactions.However, the simulation results assuming a coarsening of the drainage network density showed the importance of drainage structure and geometry for the water balance: The removal of the artificial draining ditches in the floodplain would result in significant alterations of total groundwater recharge, i.e., less recharge from winter to early summer and an increase of groundwater recharge during summer and autumn. Furthermore the different effects of groundwater recharge alterations on the dynamics of groundwater stages within the wetland areas close to the floodplains compared to the more peripheral areas could be quantified. Finally, it will be discussed that a well-adjusted co-ordination of different management measures is required to reach a sustainable water resources management of such lowland–floodplain landscapes.     

Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity of water system

• Impact of urban development on water system is assessed with carrying capacity. • Impacts on both water resource quantity and environmental quality are involved. • Multi-objective optimization revealing system trade-off facilitate the regulation. • Efficiency, scale and structure of urban development are regulated in two stages. • A roadmap approaching more sustainable development is provided for the case city. Environmental impact assessments and subsequent regulation measures of urban development plans are critical to human progress toward sustainability, since these plans set the scale and structure targets of future socioeconomic development. A three-step methodology for assessing and optimizing an urban development plan focusing on its impacts on the water system was developed. The methodology first predicted the pressure on the water system caused by implementation of the plan under distinct scenarios, then compared the pressure with the carrying capacity threshold to verify the system status; finally, a multi-objective optimization method was used to propose regulation solutions. The methodology enabled evaluation of the water system carrying state, taking socioeconomic development uncertainties into account, and multiple sets of improvement measures under different decisionmaker preferences were generated. The methodology was applied in the case of Zhoushan city in South-east China. The assessment results showed that overloading problems occurred in 11 out of the 13 zones in Zhoushan, with the potential pressure varying from 1.1 to 18.3 times the carrying capacity. As a basic regulation measure, an environmental efficiency upgrade could relieve the overloading in 4 zones and reduce 9%‒63% of the pressure. The optimization of industrial development showed that the pressure could be controlled under the carrying capacity threshold if the planned scale was reduced by 24% and the industrial structure was transformed. Various regulation schemes including a more suitable scale and structure with necessary efficiency standards are provided for decisionmakers that can help the case city approach a more sustainable development pattern.     

The potential of public engagement in sustainable waste management: designing the future for biosolids in New Zealand

Strategies for beneficial use of biosolids in New Zealand and elsewhere are currently focused primarily on land application. The long-term success of these and other strategies is dependent not only on technical factors, but also on their environmental, economic, social and cultural sustainability. This paper briefly reviews the situation with respect to biosolids management in New Zealand, where land application is not yet widespread; the rise in public opposition to land application in the United States; and the biosolids industry's approach to public engagement. We argue that, at least until recently, the industry has misinterpreted the nature and meaning of public opposition and thus substituted public relations for public engagement. We argue that genuine public engagement is necessary and that its purpose cannot be to gain public acceptance for an already-decided-upon strategy. It therefore calls for humility among biosolids managers, including a willingness to open up the framing of 'the problem', to acknowledge areas of uncertainty, and to recognise the role of values in 'technical' decision-making. We then present and analyse an example of the use of the scenario workshop process for public participation in biosolids management policy in Christchurch, New Zealand, and conclude that scenario workshops and related methods represent an opportunity to enhance sustainable waste management when certain conditions are met.     

Ecological scenarios analyzed and evaluated by a shallow lake model

We applied the complex ecosystem model EMMO, which was adopted to the shallow lake Müggelsee (Germany), in order to evaluate a large set of ecological scenarios. By means of EMMO, 33 scenarios and 17 indicators were defined to characterize their effects on the lake ecosystem. The indicators were based on model outputs of EMMO and can be separated into biological indicators, such as chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria, and hydro-chemical indicators, such as phosphorus. The question to be solved was, what is the ranking of the scenarios based on their characterization by these 17 indicators? And how can we handle high quantities of complex data within evaluation procedures? The scenario evaluation was performed by partial order theory which, however, did not provide a clear result. By subsequently applying the hierarchical cluster analysis (complete linkage) it was possible to reduce the data matrix to indicator and scenario representatives. Even though this step implies losses of information, it simplifies the application of partial order theory and the post processing by METEOR. METEOR is derived from partial order theory and allows the stepwise aggregation of indicators, which subsequently leads to a distinct and clear decision. In the final evaluation result the best scenario was the one which defines a minimum nutrient input and no phosphorus release from the sediment while the worst scenario is characterized by a maximum nutrient input and extensive phosphorus release from the sediment. The reasonable and comprehensive results show that the combination of partial order, cluster analysis and METEOR can handle big amounts of data in a very clear and transparent way, and therefore is ideal in the context of complex ecosystem models, like that we applied.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.