Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

The use of ecological scales for indication of the current state of forest communities

A method for estimating the current state of plant communities based on the ecological amplitudes of constituent species is proposed. An original program, Fitoindikatsiya, has been developed to compute the indices of disturbance and homogeneity of plant communities from species ecological scale values. The current state of pine forests in the part of Novosibirsk oblast east of the Ob River has been analyzed; slightly, moderately, and severely disturbed zones have been distinguished.     

平原农区村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿——以江苏省淮安市为例

选择地处苏北平原农区的淮安市所有15510个自然村和872414户农户全样本入户调查数据为分析对象,采用占比统计法和GIS空间分析,对村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿进行研究。主要结论如下：（1）在村落层面,平均规模小,单村独户多且村落分散,多数自然村远离镇区,近一半自然村位居“九靠近一滞洪”区域内。该格局是自然地理条件和人文因素综合影响形成的。（2）在住房层面,农村老旧住房比例高,全市40%农户在城乡同时拥有住房,但在城镇拥有住房率与到城区距离呈负相关,而农村住房空关率则呈现相反的空间格局。（3）在迁居意愿方面,54.1%的农户愿意集中居住且多意向实物安置,较低补偿标准和不便务农是不愿迁居的主要原因;移居城镇是货币安置农户的主要去向,留村和入镇集中居住是实物安置农户的主要去向。在迁居意向农户中,近90%选择政府统建方式,近80%愿意有偿退出宅基地和流转承包地。（4）村民居住空间特征和迁居意愿都存在明显的空间差异,两者之间存有内在联系且均受多种因素影响。     

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

滤纸法测定悬浮物的干扰及其消除

提出了滤纸法测定悬浮物时，水样的酸碱度，取样量的多少对悬浮物测定有直接的影响。通过实验验证，对于偏酸，偏碱的水样用酸碱中和后再过滤即可消除影响，取样量应根据悬浮物的不同而定。     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

南水北调东平湖水质变化趋势分析研究

采用了季节性肯达尔法水质趋势分析方法,分析了1984～2000年东平湖水质的变化情况,目前东平湖水质一般为Ⅴ类、Ⅵ类,个别年份为超Ⅴ类,氨氮平均值历年变化不大,一般均符合Ⅰ Ⅲ类水质,挥发酚和砷含量甚小,各年均符合Ⅰ类水。     

城市空气质量日报自动发布系统的研究与开发

详细介绍了“城市空气质量日报自动发布系统”的开发背景和开发过程 ,并对系统整体的架构和所用到的技术作了针对性的说明 ,阐明了作者对此类系统的前景和发展方向的看法。