基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Small queens in the ant Ectatomma tuberculatum: a new case of social parasitism

Social parasites exploit the worker force of colonies of other social insects to rear their own young. Social parasitism occurs in several Hymenoptera and is particularly common in several tribes of the ant subfamilies Myrmicinae and Formicinae. Here, we document the occurrence of miniaturized queens (microgynes) in colonies of Ectatomma tuberculatum, an ant belonging to the subfamily Ectatomminae. Behavioral observations and genetic analyses show that microgynes concentrate their reproductive efforts almost exclusively on the production of sexual offspring (microgynes and males), whereas the regular, large queens (macrogynes) produce workers in addition to sexuals. According to mitochondrial and nuclear markers, gene flow between microgynes and macrogynes is extremely limited. Whereas the co-occurrence of microgynes and macrogynes in the related species Ectatomma ruidum constitutes an intraspecific polymorphism associated with alternative dispersal tactics, microgynes found in colonies of E. tuberculatum appear to be a distinct species and to represent the first case of social parasitism in the poneromorph subfamilies of ants.     

北京水灾及其社会影响

北京在历史上曾发生多次重大水灾,给人民生命财产、城市建设及社会安定带来了巨大影响。形成水灾的主要因素是永定河决口泛溢和区域雨涝。现从大量的历史文献中列举几个实例,来看水灾的严重程度及其影响后果。     

不同低碳氮比废水中好氧颗粒污泥的长期运行稳定性

为了研究好氧颗粒污泥系统处理低碳氮比废水的长期运行稳定性,采用低碳氮比（C/N）条件下逐步增加碳氮负荷的进水方法,分别在反应器A和B中接种好氧颗粒污泥,考察其长期运行过程中的理化性质、处理性能及应对冲击负荷的稳定性.其中A反应器的碳氮比一直维持在2,而B则由4逐步降至2.结果表明,在4℃存储30d的好氧颗粒污泥,经过25d的培养,其活性基本恢复,A、B反应器化学需氧量（COD）和氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）的去除效率均达到90%以上.在其后的稳定阶段,B反应器COD和NH₄⁺-N去除率达到90%以上,实现了完全硝化;而A反应器COD去除率仅80%左右,虽然NH₄⁺-N去除率最终也达到90%以上,但仅实现短程硝化.在冲击负荷阶段,A和B反应器COD去除率仍维持在80%以上,但是NH₄⁺-N去除受到很大冲击.A反应器NH₄⁺-N去除效率恶化,B反应器仅实现了部分硝化.整个运行过程,好氧颗粒污泥的物理性质受到的影响不大,A和B反应器的污泥容积指数（SVI₃₀）分别维持在60 mL ·g^-1和75 mL ·g^-1左右,混合液悬浮固体（MLSS）在5g ·L^-1和3.7g ·L^-1左右.颗粒污泥微生物群落分析表明,B反应器相对于A反应器丰富度和多样性更高.同时B反应器具有更高丰度的Zoogloea属,在颗粒中能产生更多的胞外蛋白促使颗粒结构更稳定,保证系统的长期稳定运行.以上结果表明,与C/N为2的好氧颗粒污泥系统相比,C/N为4的系统脱碳硝化效果好,抗冲击负荷能力强,更有利于颗粒污泥的长期稳定运行.     

平原农区村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿——以江苏省淮安市为例

选择地处苏北平原农区的淮安市所有15510个自然村和872414户农户全样本入户调查数据为分析对象,采用占比统计法和GIS空间分析,对村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿进行研究。主要结论如下：（1）在村落层面,平均规模小,单村独户多且村落分散,多数自然村远离镇区,近一半自然村位居“九靠近一滞洪”区域内。该格局是自然地理条件和人文因素综合影响形成的。（2）在住房层面,农村老旧住房比例高,全市40%农户在城乡同时拥有住房,但在城镇拥有住房率与到城区距离呈负相关,而农村住房空关率则呈现相反的空间格局。（3）在迁居意愿方面,54.1%的农户愿意集中居住且多意向实物安置,较低补偿标准和不便务农是不愿迁居的主要原因;移居城镇是货币安置农户的主要去向,留村和入镇集中居住是实物安置农户的主要去向。在迁居意向农户中,近90%选择政府统建方式,近80%愿意有偿退出宅基地和流转承包地。（4）村民居住空间特征和迁居意愿都存在明显的空间差异,两者之间存有内在联系且均受多种因素影响。     

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

南水北调东平湖水质变化趋势分析研究

采用了季节性肯达尔法水质趋势分析方法,分析了1984～2000年东平湖水质的变化情况,目前东平湖水质一般为Ⅴ类、Ⅵ类,个别年份为超Ⅴ类,氨氮平均值历年变化不大,一般均符合Ⅰ Ⅲ类水质,挥发酚和砷含量甚小,各年均符合Ⅰ类水。