An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

A decision tree approach modelling functional group abundance in a pasture ecosystem

Decision tree, one of the data mining approaches, was used to model the relative abundance of five functional groups of plant species, namely high fertility response grasses (HFRG), low fertility tolerance grasses (LFTG), legume, moss and flatweeds in a New Zealand hill-pasture ecosystem using aboveground biomass. The model outputs were integrated with a geographic information system (GIS) to map and validate the predictions on a pasture. The decision tree models clearly revealed the interactions between the functional groups and environmental and management factors, and also indicated the relative importance of these factors in influencing the functional group abundance. Soil Olsen P was the most significant factor influencing the abundance of LFTG and moss, while soil bulk density, slope and annual P fertiliser input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of legume, HFRG and flatweeds, respectively. Generally, slope and soil Olsen P were the two key factors underlying the patterns of abundance for these five functional groups. For the five functional groups studied, there was an overall predictive accuracy of 75%. Modelling functional group abundance simplified the investigation of the complex interrelationship between species and environment in a pasture ecosystem. The integration of the decision tree with GIS in this study provides a platform to investigate community structure and functional composition for a pasture over space, and thus can be applied as a tool in pasture management.     

珠江口沉积物中生物有效性硅的赋存形态及释放研究

运用A Tessier逐步化学连续提取法,研究了珠江口沉积物中各种生物有效性硅:Ⅰ-可交换离子态、Ⅱ-碳酸盐结合态、Ⅲ-铁锰氧化物结合态、Ⅳ-有机质和硫化物结合态.研究表明:表层沉积物中,Ⅲ为优势赋存态.在沉积柱C2中,Ⅲ＞Ⅳ＞Ⅱ＞Ⅰ,Ⅰ、Ⅱ随深度变化无规律性,Ⅲ随深度先升高后下降,Ⅳ表层含量较高,到达一定深度(18 cm左右)后骤降.释放试验表明:振荡在一定时间内有利于硅释放;而盐度对硅释放的影响比较复杂,低盐度(5%以内),随盐度升高,释放量下降.当盐度继续升高时释放量又增加,但高盐度对硅释放影响不大;硅的释放在pH值=3～8范围内随着pH值升高而减少.     

Biodiversity laws: State experiences

The Western Governors' Association (WGA) includes both the public lands states with their issues and the plains states, which are 98% privately owned. WGA deals with most legislation affecting biodiversity, whether the effect is direct or tangential. It will probably not be possible, or desirable, for one entity to be in charge of biodiversity conservation. The Endangered Species Act, public lands laws, agricultural laws, water law, environmental laws, and funding legislation all affect biodiversity conservation and the responsibility for it. None of them on their own are enough, and most can cause harmful unintended consequences for biodiversity. The experience of western states in developing consensus principles for reauthorization of the Endangered Species Act provides an example of common-sense ways to improve management of biodiversity, notwithstanding the complexity and large stakes involved. The WGA's proposed changes call for increasing the role of states, streamlining the act, and increasing certainty for landowners and water users. To achieve sustainable conservation for biodiversity, the better question is not “Who is/should be in charge?”, it is “How do we get this done?” To answer this, we need goals, guidance, and bottom lines from federal laws, and management and oversight at the state level, but they all need to support local on-the-ground partnerships. Sustainable conservation requires the active participation of those who live there. WGA's experience in coordinating the Great Plains Partnership as well as its work with watershed efforts shed light on what to expect. Multilevel partnerships are not easy and require a different way of doing business. The ad hoc, sitespecific processes that result do not lend themselves to being legislated, fit into organizational boxes, or scored on a budget sheet. They do require common sense and a longterm perspective.     

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy‐neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists’ interpretations of the phrase “significant portion of its range” in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Alteration of dominant cyanobacteria in different bloom periods caused by abiotic factors and species interactions

Freshwater cyanobacterial blooms have drawn public attention because they threaten the safety of water resources and human health worldwide. Heavy cyanobacterial blooms outbreak in Lake Taihu in summer annually and vanish in other months. To find out the factors impacting the cyanobacterial blooms, the present study measured the physicochemical parameters of water and investigated the composition of microbial community using the 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer amplicon sequencing in the months with or without bloom. The most interesting finding is that two major cyanobacteria, Planktothrix and Microcystis, dramatically alternated during a cyanobacterial bloom in 2016, which is less mentioned in previous studies. When the temperature of the water began increasing in July, Planktothrix appeared first and showed as a superior competitor for M. aeruginosa in NO₃^?-rich conditions. Microcystis became the dominant genus when the water temperature increased further in August. Laboratory experiments confirmed the influence of temperature and the total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) form on the growth of Planktothrix and Microcystis in a co-culture system. Besides, species interactions between cyanobacteria and non-cyanobacterial microorganisms, especially the prokaryotes, also played a key role in the alteration of Planktothrix and Microcystis. The present study exhibited the alteration of two dominant cyanobacteria in the different bloom periods caused by the temperature, TDN forms as well as the species interactions. These results helped the better understanding of cyanobacterial blooms and the factors which contribute to them.     

Changes in soil characteristics and plant species composition along a moisture gradient in a Mediterranean pasture

Soil physicochemical characteristics, total aboveground biomass, number of species and relative abundance of groups and individual species were measured along a moisture gradient in a pasture, flooded in part during winter through early summer, adjacent to Pamvotis lake in Ioannina, Greece. Soil and vegetation measurements were conducted in 39 quadrats arranged in four zones perpendicular to the moisture gradient. The zone closest to the lake, recently separated from the lake, became part of the pasture and its soil texture was quite different from that of the other zones with a substrate containing 91% sand. Except for pH, this zone had the lowest values in the other five soil physicochemical characteristics measured (organic matter, total and extracted inorganic nitrogen, Olsen extracted phosphorus and extractable potassium); in the other zones organic matter, total nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium tended to increase from the driest to the wettest zone. Total aboveground biomass, ranging from 280 to 840 gm-2, is high for herbaceous pastures in the conditions of Mediterranean climate and it was not related to distance from the lake's shoreline, although the highest values were measured at intermediate distances, or to any of the various soil characteristics measured. Also, the number of species/0.25 m2 was not related to any of the various soil characteristics, but it was highest at the intermediate distances from the lake's shoreline. Species composition varied along the moisture gradient. Forbs as well as annual grasses and legumes declined in abundance from the driest to the wettest places; the reverse was the case for sedges and perennial grasses and legumes. These results indicate that the soil moisture gradient was the principal factor affecting soil characteristics and plant species composition. Since most species were recorded in all the four zones of the pasture, indicating that these can tolerate all variations in abiotic conditions of pasture, the vegetation zonation seems to be influenced by competition. Each functional group of species tends to dominate in a particular range of the soil moisture gradient where it is better suited and tends to exclude competitively other species. Management practices (mowing and grazing) affect the kinds of processes which maintain the observed community structure either by preventing the establishment of later successional species, like reeds and woody species, or by moderating the shoot competition, especially in the wetter zones, and thus permitting the creeping species to grow successfully.     

南京仙林地区安置小区木本植物组成与多样性分析

对南京仙林地区12个安置小区的木本植物随机分层抽样调查,利用频度、多度及物种多样性指数对调查结果作分析研究。结果表明:12个安置小区乔木层和灌木层的物种组成简单,以常见的园林栽培植物为主,香樟、桂花、海桐和冬青卫矛有较大的优势,整体物种相似性水平为0. 41,物种多样性偏低。改善小区物种组成、提升物种多样性、加强绿化景观维护与建设是管理者后期应重点关注的问题。     

Valuation of ecotoxicological impacts from tributyltin based on a quantitative environmental assessment framework

In the scientific literature, few valuations of biodiversity and ecosystem services following the impacts of toxicity are available, hampered by the lack of ecotoxicological documentation. Here, tributyltin is used to conduct a contingent valuation study as well as cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of measures for improving the environmental status in Swedish coastal waters of the Baltic Sea. Benefits considering different dimensions when assessing environmental status are highlighted and a quantitative environmental assessment framework based on available technology, ecological conditions, and economic valuation methodology is developed. Two scenarios are used in the valuation study: (a) achieving good environmental status by 2020 in accordance with EU legislation (USD 119 household⁻¹ year⁻¹) and (b) achieving visible improvements by 2100 due to natural degradation (USD 108 household⁻¹ year⁻¹) during 8 years. The later scenario was used to illustrate an application of the assessment framework. The CBA results indicate that both scenarios might generate a welfare improvement.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0682-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.