A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

对熏烟扩散模式应用的探讨

工程上应用的大气污染物扩散模式中 ,熏烟模式由于其非定常性而与其他扩散模式有很大的区别。正确处理模式中各参数及变量的相互关系才能客观地反映污染物对环境影响的结果。本研究通过对熏烟模式的非定常性和各参数、变量相互关系的分析 ,提出了正确使用该模式的方法     

Waste minimization and its ecological evaluation A case study in printed circuit board manufacture

The printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturers face several problems regarding the waste they generate. In Austria, a detailed study for waste minimization was carried out with three PCB manufacturers and one electroplating company. In this project a lot of ecologically and economically effective options were found and implemented. The ecological evaluation of processes is still an unsolved problem. Several evaluation models are tested on selected processes of the project.     

区域环境风险研究进展探讨

主要围绕国内外在区域环境风险领域的研究进展、趋势与不足进行分析评述,在此基础上提出了进行区域环境风险水平及阈值研究,并进行动态调控的研究新思路。     

以绿化三维量分析植物群降解SO2的宏观效应

控制和降低城市上空ＳＯ２的环境浓度对于改善城市环境，促进城市生态的良性循环具有十分重要的意义。本文从上海市绿化三维量分布模型、与ＳＯ２浓度分布模型的相关分析入手，以季节变化作为对比因子，讨论了城市绿化植物群的数量及分布对城市上空ＳＯ２浓度分布的宏观影响；并据此提出了可有效地控制城市上空ＳＯ２浓度的绿地建设的基本原则。     

Pulse cleaning flow models and numerical computation of candle ceramic filters

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＣｌｅａｎｉｎｇｔｈｅｆｉｎｅｐａｒｔｉｃｌｅｓｉｎｈｉｇｈｔｅｍｐｅｒａｔｕｒｅ (450℃ -950℃ )ａｎｄｈｉｇｈｐｒｅｓｓｕｒｅｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｃａｎｅｎｈａｎｃｅｔｈｅｔｈｅｒｍａｌｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｃｙｏｆｃｌｅａｎｃｏａｌｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅｓｓｕｃｈａｓＩＧＣＣｏｒＰＦＢＣ .Ｒｉｇｉｄｃｅｒａｍｉｃｆｉｌｔｅｒｓｏｆａｖａｒｉｅｔｙｏｆｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｓａｒｅｕｎｄｅｒｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎｐｒｏｇｒａｍｓａｒｏｕｎｄｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄ ,ｗｈｉｃｈｃａｎｆｉ…     

随机模拟在常州运河水质规划中的应用

以常州运河的水质规划为实例,讨论了确定性水质模型的随机模拟。讨论中引进了主观概率和客观概率的概念,用泰勒级数确定客观概率分布,用可能最大机率法估计主观概率分布,并给出了在实施不同规划方案时的水质概率曲线和水质达标的保证率。计算结果表明,使水质恶化的各种随机因素的作用不容忽视,各种水污染治理措施只能降低水质超标的风险水平。     

区域环评中大气环境容量估算的研究进展

目前,在大气环境影响评价中,区域大气环境容量的研究是实施大气污染物总量控制的前提.文章综述了大气污染物区域环境容量的主要影响因素、用于其计算的空气质量模型以及大气环境容量研究的一般步骤.现阶段应用较广泛的大气环境容量的预测模型有A-P值法模型、箱模型、线性优化模型、ADMS模型及多种模型相结合的复合模式等,通过研究分析,提出了现阶段大气环境容量研究存在的主要问题及其有效的解决途径.