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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level
rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most
important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives
of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential
sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis
allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds:
‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional
storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output
maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six
scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with
return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the
major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies
in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change. 相似文献
3.
Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):843-853
Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered
separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy
between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy
between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted
under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the
potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples.
Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems
and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability.
Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity
conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil
and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need
for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate
change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased. 相似文献
4.
Community response to hazard information 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
McKay JM 《Disasters》1984,8(2):118-123
The impact of flood hazard information on public acceptance of a selected flood mitigation strategy was assessed by an analysis of the content of newspaper reports of community reaction and letters to the editor. The impact of personal delivery of a flood hazard map on individual perception of risk and attitude to such information was assessed using personal interviews. The results indicated that media coverage of the flood hazard information reduced public criticism of the works. This result must be partially attributable to the dramatic style of media coverage and the fact that the media only emphasized the positive value of the works. The interview demonstrated that personal delivery of the information raised perception of risk, improved comprehension of flood risk, had no impact on acceptability of risk but discouraged some respondents from seeking such information in the future. Factors to explain the last negative change were identified to be the format of the map sheet and low salience of flood hazard. On the basis of all results, methods to improve community response to hazard information are provided. 相似文献
5.
Eugene L. Peck 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1997,33(1):125-134
ABSTRACT: Many users of hydrometeorological records are not aware of the number of inconsistencies and biases that occur in hydrometeorological records. Examples are presented illustrating how the exposures of sites for measurement of precipitation, wind, snow on the ground, and evaporation determine to a large extent how useful the records are for estimating areal conditions. For areas where precipitation in the form of snow produces a significant portion of the runoff, a smaller number of quality records may be more valuable for modeling than a much larger number of records of lower quality. Information is presented to show that the overall value of an operational hydrometeorological network is dependent upon how consistent and representative of average conditions the collected records are, especially for mountainous areas in cold regions. 相似文献
6.
为了保障移动通信信息系统的安全,制定有效的、可操作性的、科学的安全风险评估体系是当务之急。通过对国内外移动通信信息系统安全风险评估研究的现状,结合其他行业诸如铁路系统、地理信息系统等的信息安全风险评估的经验,笔者首先从一个移动通信信息安全系统风险评估的基本概念入手,给出了诸如风险、脆弱性、威胁、残余风险等一系列定义,提出了移动通信信息系统安全风险评估工作的模型和方案,以及风险评估工作中应该考虑的要素和工作细节,旨在为风险评估工作提供理论指导,使风险评估的过程和结果更具有逻辑性、系统性和可操作性,从而提高风险评估的质量和效果。实践证明了模型和方案是行之有效的。 相似文献
7.
R. Hickisch T. Hodgetts P. J. Johnson C. Sillero-Zubiri K. Tockner D.W. Macdonald 《Conservation biology》2019,33(5):1151-1163
Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually. 相似文献
8.
Mountain ecosystems are considered vulnerable to early impacts of climate change. Whether and how local residents of these areas perceive these changes, however, remain under-studied questions. By conducting a household survey in the Khumbu region of Nepal, this study assessed local residents’ experience-based perception of changes in climate trends and patterns, perceived risk, and attitudes towards climate issues. Multivariate cluster analysis based on residents’ climate change beliefs revealed three segments: “Cautious,” “Disengaged,” and “Alarmed.” A comparison of these segments along key psychosocial constructs of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) revealed significant inter-segment differences in residents’ perception of severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost associated with engaging in mitigating behavior. Results shed light on how residents of high elevation areas that are considered to be exposed to early impacts of climate change perceive the risk and intend to respond. These findings could also assist stakeholders working in other similar mountain ecosystems in understanding vulnerability and in working towards climate readiness.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
9.
Traffic noise results from highways where the most important source of noise in cities. This noise has the properties of linear source. Constitution of noise maps has become compulsory to see the regions that are influenced from the noise, and to put forward the future environmental approaches. During the mapping of the noise, generally two fundamental problems are encountered, excessive time requirement for the measurement of noise and determining the method for the constitution of maps.This study was conducted in Sanliurfa city of Turkey, in 3×4 km area. Continuous weekly data were obtained in 11 measurement points. By using these data in (GIS) environment, preparation of the most reliable map in the shortest time is achieved by the interpolation method. 相似文献
10.
Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous
areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment
and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced
major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested
in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that
was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard
maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication
of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution
such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard
maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae
nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable
extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated
flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed. 相似文献