A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律，探讨其内部的协调关系，是开展节水型社会建设规划，实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而，目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时，通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示，较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此，针对产业用水系统的特性，利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数，以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究，结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序，发展比较协调，其用水综合效益较大，但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖；其中，农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺，在未来用水规划中应予以重视。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

我国人口资源与食物问题

人口增多,耕地减少,部分地区供水不足,是我国人口与资源矛盾的基本格局。由于人口的压力,对资源实行超强度的利用,使较大范围的地区生态环境恶化,严重威胁农业生产,并成为许多地区多灾、低产、贫困的根本原因,较低的食物人均占有水平,将继续成为中国国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的严重限制因素。增加食物,必须挖掘资源的潜力,开源与节流相结合,以内涵挖潜为主。首先是要立足现有的耕地,致力于提高单产;同时,合理开发水域、山地、草地等资源,广辟食物来源,提高非耕地资源的生产力,提高林牧渔业的发展水平。耕地应以深度开发为主,走资源节约型(节地、节水、节时、节能)的集约化道路。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

泗顶矿区6种土地利用类型土壤微生物群落结构特征

以广西柳州泗顶铅锌矿区的玉米地、菜地、灌木、尾矿库、森林和柑橘园6种不同利用类型土壤为研究对象,采用高通量测序技术,分析了不同土地利用类型土壤微生物群落结构特征及土壤环境因子对微生物群落结构的影响.结果表明,变形菌门（Proteobacteria）是6种土壤的优势菌门,所占比例为31.34%~53.47%,γ-变形菌纲（Gammaproteobacteria）为优势菌纲.冗余分析表明,在重金属含量最高的灌木区,厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）和拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）的丰度与土壤中铅、锌、镉、铜的含量呈现显著正相关;在土壤钠和钾含量较高的玉米地和菜地,浮霉菌门（Planctomycetes）的丰度有所增加,而厚壁菌门和拟杆菌门的丰度则有所下降.在土壤有机质含量较高而总氮、总磷含量较低的柑橘园,酸杆菌门（Acidobacteria）和疣微菌门（Verrucomicrobia）的丰度较高.芽单胞菌门（Gemmatimonadetes）和浮霉菌门的丰度与土壤pH值呈显著正相关.研究结果表明土地利用类型及土壤环境因子对土壤微生物群落结构多样性有显著的影响.     

我国硒淡水水生生物水质基准值推导

水体中硒含量过高会导致水生生态系统退化,而中国现有的地表水环境质量标准对硒的标准值设定并不是基于我国水生生物相关毒理学研究得出的,难以因地制宜地保护我国水生生物.为保护我国水生生物,本研究利用物种敏感度分布法,推导出基于最大无效应浓度（NOEC）、最低有效应浓度（LOEC）的慢性硒（无机）淡水水质一级基准值和基于半数致死效应浓度（LC₅₀）、半数最大效应浓度（EC₅₀）、半数抑制浓度（IC₅₀）的急性硒（无机）淡水水质二级基准值分别为0.58 μg·L^-1、0.52 mg·L^-1,发现我国现有的水质标准可能会对我国水生生物造成欠保护.进一步推导出为保护我国鱼类的硒（无机）淡水水质一级、二级基准值分别为0.21 μg·L^-1、1.60 mg·L^-1,以及硒淡水鱼类饲料有机硒和无机硒含量一级基准值分别为97 μg·kg^-1和98 μg·kg^-1.本研究基于硒对水生生物的急性和慢性毒性效应,推导出硒的系列基准值,为保护我国淡水水生生物安全的标准制定提供数据支撑和科学依据.