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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
In the diurnal lepidopteran fauna of the northern taiga subzone in the western Russian Plain, the species inhabiting primary biotopic complexes typical of this subzone currently account for slightly more than 60% of the total species richness and abundance. A large part of the fauna is represented by the species of more southern origin, whose expansion to the northern taiga was caused by anthropogenic transformation of landscapes between the 12th and 20th centuries and recent climate warming. 相似文献
3.
4.
基于中国绿洲喜凉作物(chimonophilous crop)分布区39个站点1960~2016年逐日平均气温资料,运用线性趋势法、反距离加权插值(IDW)、Morlet小波、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,研究中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期的时空变化对变暖停滞的响应.结果表明:①变暖停滞期,中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起、止日及生长期日数以-0.2d/10a、0.33d/10a、0.53d/10a的趋势变化,较1960~2016年起始日提前趋势减缓1.01d/10a,终止日推迟减缓1.28d/10a,生长期日数延长减缓2.3d/10a,对变暖停滞有响应.②中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起始日对变暖停滞响应的站点有44%,终止日和生长期日数均为49%,主要分布在南疆、柴达木盆地和河西绿洲,其中河西绿洲对变暖停滞响应最明显,南疆次之,柴达木最小,而北疆绿洲不存在滞缓现象,显然空间差异明显.③M-K检验显示,中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期起、止日及生长期日数分别在2001年、1990年和1997年发生突变,起始日晚于变暖停滞起始年份,终止日和生长期日数早于变暖停滞起始年,且分绿洲生长期日数突变年与变暖停滞起始年相接近.④Morlet小波得出变暖停滞期其变化稳定存在2.4~4.3a的震荡周期,表明未来几年中国绿洲喜凉作物气候生长期仍持续延长. 相似文献
5.
A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability. 相似文献
6.
Torvanger Asbjørn Rypdal Kristin Kallbekken Steffen 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(4):693-715
Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores
provisions for including geological CO2 storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share
of European CO2 emissions for many decades. If CO2 is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant
technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale
properties. Thus CO2 capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale,
which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites,
where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the
unsettled status of geological CO2 storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions
on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with
expected prices for CO2 permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO2 stored means that geological CO2 storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that
companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO2 storage. 相似文献
7.
Influence of new town development on the urban heat island - The case of the Bundang area 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
SONG Young-bae 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2005,17(4):641-645
Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island. 相似文献
8.
全球环境变化给发展中国家和南北关系带来深刻影响,理解环境问题的全球不平等需要以发展中国家80年代开始的经济结构调整和沉重债务为背景。南方的环境政策优先在很大程度上与其生活的可持续性相连,而不是通常与全球环境变化的长期性风险相关,然而,全球环境变化又与发展中国家贫困人口的日常生活紧密相关。从南方的立场看,当“问题”对他们不十分迫切时,就很难同意采取措施,仅此原因,北方对全球环境变化的关切要得到成功回应,真正的全球契约就需要解决基本“发展”问题,主要是贫困。 相似文献
9.
10.
北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析,结合14C、古地磁等,对北京房山东甘池15000a以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究,特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在14100~14000aB.P.前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件,在10000aB.P.左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件,在大约5770aB.P.和4560aB.P.左右及2850~2650aB.P.出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。 相似文献