A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

铝系混凝剂优势形态分析及其混凝特性

聚合氯化铝（PACl）是常用的水处理混凝剂,在应用过程中通常表现出比传统铝盐更为优异的效果.研究表明,这种优异性能主要得益于其特殊的组成,特别是高分子聚合物Al₁₃和Al₃₀独特的物化特性.Al₁₃和Al₃₀是铝离子水解过程中的中间产物,在地球科学和环境化学等领域有着重要的研究价值.于水处理而言,二者的结构和分子特性是研究者关注的重点,大量研究基于此展开,很多重要的发现为实际应用奠定了基础.基于对PACl及其组成性质的研究,本文对PACl的混凝特性及其优势形态分子的分析进行了综合阐述.     

皇甫川流域主要人工灌木水分生态的研究

通过在丰水年(1998年)和欠水年(1999年)连续两个生长季对皇甫川流域主要灌木沙棘、沙柳和柠条的生物学特性、蒸腾特征及土壤水分含量的测定及分析,得出结果为:三种灌木蒸腾强度在晴天和阴天表现的日变化规律不同。在丰水年和欠水年的生长季内,三种灌木蒸腾强度均随土壤含水量和降雨量的增减而增减,环境因子综合作用于灌木蒸腾的过程。无论丰水年还是欠水年,三种灌木地上生物量的增长与蒸腾耗水量均呈同步增长,生长季内皇甫川流域主要灌木蒸腾系数均较高,灌木的生长是以消耗大量水分为代价,水分是其生长的主要限制因子之一;柠条蒸腾系数较小,这反映了柠条能较有效利用水分,积累干物质,适合于在皇甫川流域生长;通过测定与计算,皇甫川流域沙棘适宜盖度为61%～79%、柠条为43%～55%、沙柳为46%～59%。     

Prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of Apert's syndrome

A mother affected with Apert's syndrome was diagnosed by ultrasound scan at 16–17 weeks to have a fetus similarly affected. The typical features of acrocephaly and symmetrical syndactyly were seen. This is probably the first time that this condition has been diagnosed at such a gestation by ultrasound scan. The patient decided to continue the pregnancy, and intrauterine death occurred at 34 weeks. The diagnosis was confirmed by pathological examination.     

The Relation Between Sandstorms and Strong Winds in Xinjiang,China

With observational data spanning 1961–1999 from 90 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China, the spatial and temporal characteristics of sandstorms and strong winds, and the contribution of strong winds to the occurrence of sandstormsare analyzed. Moreover, the dominant wind direction and minimumwind speeds during sandstorm periods are discussed. The research shows that although possessing similar climatic trends, sandstorms and strong winds in Xinjiang have opposite geographical distributions, i.e. places with more sandstorms show fewer strong winds. The contribution of strongwinds to sandstorms in northern Xinjiang is larger than that insouthern Xinjiang. The dominant wind directions clearly indicatethe paths of the weather systems that introduced the sandstorms.The minimum wind speeds in the sandstorms were over 10 ms^-1in northern and eastern Xinjiang and in the Turpan and Yanqi Basins of southern Xinjiang. In Tarim Basin of southern Xinjiang,however, the minimum wind speed was about 6–8 ms^-1, and even 6 ms^-1 at its southern edge.     

TOPHAZOP: a knowledge-based software tool for conducting HAZOP in a rapid, efficient yet inexpensive manner

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies constitute an essential step in the risk analysis of any chemical process industry and involve systematic identification of every conceivable abnormal process deviation, its causes and abnormal consequences. These authors have recently proposed optHAZOP as an alternative procedure for conducting HAZOP studies in a shorter span of time than taken by conventional HAZOP procedure, with greater accuracy and effectiveness [Khan, F. I. and Abassi, S. A., optHAZOP. An effective and efficient technique for hazard identification and assessment Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1997, 10, 191–204]. optHAZOP consists of several steps, the most crucial one requires use of a knowledge-based software tool which would significantly reduce the requirement of expert man-hours and speed up the work of the study team. TOPHAZOP (Tool for OPTmizing HAZOP) has been developed to fulfil this need.

The TOPHAZOP knowledge-base consists of two main branches: process-specific and general. The TOPHAZOP framework allows these two branches to interact during the analysis to address the process-specific aspects of HAZOP analysis while maintaining the generality of the system. The system is open-ended and modular in structure to make easy implementation and/or expansion of knowledge. The important features of TOPHAZOP and its performance on an industrial case study are described.     

氨氮浓度对苦草上附植藻类定植的影响

为了认识水体富营养化过程中附植藻类群落定植演替规律,利用显微计数法,通过室内静态模拟实验,研究了水体中不同氨氮浓度对太湖常见沉水植物苦草上附植藻类的影响。结果表明:采集的样品在以硅藻门中脆杆藻属、直链藻属、桥弯藻属、舟行藻属以及蓝藻门的色球藻属为优势种的样品在放置到不同浓度氨氮的实验组后,最后群落演变成为在低浓度氨氮营养盐下以舟行藻和脆杆藻为优势属,中高浓度的氨氮营养盐下以绿藻门的毛枝藻和硅藻门的小环藻和舟行藻为优势属的附植藻类群落结构;生物量在低浓度范围内与氨氮营养盐呈正相关。表明氨氮营养盐对附植藻类群落结构影响非常明显。     

长江口海域近50a来营养盐的变化及其对浮游植物群落演替的影响

本文根据收集到的1960s到2000s年间东海长江口附近海域(30.5～32°N,122～123°E)的营养盐数据,分析了长江口海域营养盐的季节变化及历史变化趋势。其中根据1959～1960年,1985～1986年和2002～2003年长江口海域营养盐的季节变化数据,发现50 a来,营养盐的季节变化差异不大,均呈现出春夏低,秋冬高的季节变化趋势,其中2002～2003年四个季节之间营养盐含量的变化幅度较其它两年略小。从1960s～2000s年的历史变化可以看出,调查海域的DIN含量呈现出显著上升的趋势,但是在2000年以后,DIN的年平均含量略有降低但变化不大,基本保持在18μmol/L。DIP年平均浓度变化不明显,浓度范围维持在0.39～0.60μmol/L之间。SiO3-Si的年平均含量呈现出明显的降低趋势。就营养盐组成变化来说,DIN/P比例和Si/DIN比值的变化趋势相反,DIN/P比例呈现出升高的趋势而Si/DIN呈现出降低的趋势。生物数据表明从1980s以后该海域赤潮优势种有从硅藻演变为甲藻的趋势,结合营养盐的变化分析认为过量的DIN和持续升高的DIN/P是造成这一藻种长期演变现象的主要原因。     

重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响

根据污染源普查资料制作北部湾地区2007年人为排放源清单,以及中期/远期参比情景(REF15/REF20)和远期调控情景(SCEi20)下的排放源清单.采用WRF-Chem模拟北部湾地区空气质量现状及未来变化.2007年SO2和NO2月平均质量浓度模拟值与监测值比较吻合.广东、广西(海南)地区污染物质量浓度较高(低)....     

南京企业雨排和清下水排口排放现状及对策研究

对南京典型工业企业雨排及清下水排口水质排放情况进行监测分析,摸清排放现状,分析成因.并提出对策和建议,要求环境管理部门加强对工业企业雨污分流的监管,各地方可以根据实际情况制定相应的地方标准.以南京为例,加大对工业企业雨排和清下水排口的监测管理力度,把工业企业雨排和清下水排口纳入正常的监测计划,对出现超标以及雨排或清下水排口排放量超过40吨/天的工业企业应安装污染源在线监控系统.最终倒逼企业加强环境管理,减少对外环境的影响.