Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

Influence of new town development on the urban heat island - The case of the Bundang area

Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island.     

抚顺生态城市建设的现状与措施

介绍生态平衡城市的基本条件及抚顺市在建设生态平衡型城市中的基本状况的基础上提出了相关的措施。根据归纳和调查目前抚顺市在经济发展的9项指标中只有2项，环境保护指标15项中只有8项满足生态平衡型城市方面的指标。这说明抚顺市在这方面还存在着很大差距，于是文中进一步提出了相关建议和措施。     

The influence of source and timing of nitrogen fertilizers on yield and nitrogen use efficiency of four sweet potato cultivars

Nitrogen (N) availability is a very important determinant of crop yield. It is also one of the most expensive inputs in crop production. Thus, the efficient management of N by farmers with limited resource is a very important part of successful soil and crop management system. A field study was conducted on a Norfolk sandy loam soil at the George Washington Carver Agricultural Experiment Station, Tuskegee, AL, to evaluate the influence of fertilizer source and timing on the yield of four sweet potato [Ipomoea batatas (L.)] cultivars. Two N sources (urea, CO(NH₂)₂ and ammonium nitrate, NH₄NO₃), four sweet potato cultivars (‘Georgia Jet’, GA-Jet; ‘TU-82-155’, TU-155; ‘TU-1892’; and ‘Rojo Blanco’, Rojo-Bl) and three times (zero, single, and split applications) were used in a factorial designed experiment. Plants were harvested after 80 and 120 days and total and marketable yields determined. Nitrogen recovery efficiency, yield efficiency and physiological efficiency were also determined. Total and marketable yields of early maturing cultivars were significantly higher than of late maturing cultivars (P<0.05). The single application of N resulted in significantly higher yield in storage roots than split application (P<0.05). Physiological efficiency values were highly correlated with total marketable yields. Recovery rates increased with time. Late maturing cultivars tended to have higher N recovery and physiological efficiency than early maturing cultivars. These results suggest that cultivar maturity group should play an important part in N fertilization recommendations for sweet potato.     

人工神经网络模型和公路复垦土地适宜性评价

提出了人工神经网络用于公路临时用地复垦土地适宜性评价，利用该模型对京大高速公路山西段复垦山西段复垦土地进行了适宜性评价，探讨了人工神经网络在土地复垦适宜性评价时的特点和注意问题。     

区域土地可持续利用与环境政策-体化

可持续发展应分阶段、分层次地进行，为增强区域土地可持续利用，相关环境政策的制定遵循可持续发展的原则，提出了区域土地可持续利用的评价流程与环境政策形成的循环模式；介绍了国外区域开发环境影响评价的研究进展及区域环境管理规划的主要内容；分析了这一领域的相关法律问题并提出了建议。     

城市可持续性:欧洲城市改造的经验与启示

全球化和城市化使得世界城市发展面临着严重的生态环境问题与挑战,城市可持续性是解决这些问题的根本出路.本文利用欧洲城市改造的案例对城市可持续性进行了分析和研究,通过城市可持续性的原则、特点和影响因素分析,重点讨论了欧洲地方环境行动计划,以及项目特点、预算来源、战略目标、管理形式和行动计划与方案,指出切实可行的行动计划、普遍的公众参与、充足的资金来源、相关利益人的协作体、信息技术应用是城市可持续性和竞争力提升的根本保证.     

南京雨花石

南京出产的雨花石为天赐瑰宝，按照矿物岩石学可分为11类，可从岩石质地、艺术、科学、历史四个方面评价其价值。雨花石作为砾石、卵石主要是由河流作用形成的，而组成雨花石的原岩的成因各异，火山作用是最为重要的成因方式。雨花石可从产品销售以及发展旅游事业等方面加以利用，搞好规划开发利用时要注意保护资源。     

Carbon isotope ratios in logged and unlogged boreal forests: Examination of the potential for determining wildlife habitat use

Due to assimilation of recycled CO₂ from litter decomposition and photosynthetic changes in carbon fractionation at low light levels, the foliage at the base of a forest is often more depleted in¹³C compared to that exposed to the atmosphere in either the canopy or in open clearings. This is referred to as the canopy effect. African research has indicated that these habitat differences in foliar ¹³C can be substantial enough to affect the carbon isotope ratios of resident fauna. Previous work documenting a 30-year chronology on moose teeth from Isle Royale National Park indicated a progressive depletion in¹³C and suggested that this could be due to forest regrowth following extensive burning. The present study examined the assumption implicit in this hypothesis that foliar ¹³C varies between open and closed boreal forest sites. I found a marginal canopy effect of 2 ¹³C difference between upper canopy and ground flora for a forest in northwestern Ontario and an average difference of 1.2 in under- and mid-story vegetation between closed forests and open clear-cuts. Because of these small differences, the utility of carbon isotope analysis in quantifying temporally integrated exploitation of deforested habitats will be low for northern boreal locations. In denser forests, such as those in the tropics or western North American where the canopy effect can be expected to be much greater, ¹³C analysis may still offer some promise for determining selection by wildlife of disturbed habitats.