长江源区水文气象要素变化及其与大尺度环流因子关系研究

长江源区水文气象要素变化及其归因研究一直备受全球关注,现阶段研究多侧重于水文气象要素时空变化特征分析,针对长江源区水文气象要素与大尺度环流因子相互关系的研究不足。论文利用Mann-Kendall法、去趋势波动分析法和小波分析法,探究长江源区1957—2012年水文气象要素趋势性、波动性和周期性变化规律,分析水文气象要素与大尺度环流因子的相关关系,通过研究水汽通量揭示大尺度环流因子对水文气象要素变化的驱动机制。结果表明：20世纪90年代,长江源区气候暖干化,进入21世纪后,长江源区气候暖湿化趋势明显;长江源区水文气象要素序列具有正长程相关性,长江源区气候未来会继续呈现暖湿化变化趋势。长江源区水文气象要素都存在着1~5、10~24和25~45 a三种时间尺度周期变化规律。南亚季风是影响长江源区降水量和流量较为重要的大气环流因子,南亚季风驱动下的西南方向气流是长江源区主导气流和水汽来源。     

关于大型社会经营活动安全问题的探讨

笔者列举了相关事例,指出了大型社会经营活动的主要特点;从制度、操作、技术研究、教育4方面分析了目前大型社会经营活动存在的现实突出问题;重点从公共场所安全、应急、疏散、人群、活动容量、旅游安全、安全管理、工作实践这几个方面综述了大型社会经营活动安全相关研究的进展并指出不足之处;在上述研讨的基础上结合风险评价理论等,提出了一个较为完善的保障大型社会经营活动安全的构想,并详细论述其内容、方法及技术路线。该构想对开展大型社会经营活动的事故预防、风险管理、应急处理和控制具有重要参考价值。     

大型公共场所风险评价研究现状与展望

大型公共场所由于人群高度密集和财富高度集中的特点,其防灾减灾问题一直是城市防灾减灾的重点和难点,其风险性研究直接影响到城市防灾减灾安全工程建设及管理策略的制定实施.全面调研了国内外大型公共场所风险评价指标体系及评价方法的研究现状,分析了大型公共场所风险评价的重要地位,指出了大型公共场所风险评价方面存在的问题,并提出了有关大型公共场所风险评价方面的几点建议.     

基于大型乙烯成套装置工艺安全的变更管理

介绍了工艺安全变更管理的概念及相关标准法规,结合国内变更管理的现状,提出了大型乙烯成套装置工艺安全变更管理建议。     

厌氧发酵沼气工程的工艺及存在的问题

利用厌氧消化技术处理畜禽养殖废水,制取清洁能源——沼气,在治理污染的同时变废为宝,减少温室气体的排放,从而实现国民经济的可持续性发展。本文概述了集约化畜禽养殖场废污水处理中采用的厌氧发酵工艺,以及厌氧发酵沼气工程中存在的问题。     

Testing hypotheses about management to enhance habitat for feeding birds in a freshwater wetland

The level of water was manipulated in a freshwater wetland, with the aim of enhancing abundances of benthic animals and, ultimately, improving habitat for feeding birds (Japanese Snipe, Gallinago hardwickii). We tested whether these actions had the predicted and desired effects on benthic animals, by contrasting changes in two managed locations to one control location which was left unmanipulated. The number of taxa and abundances of chironomids decreased strongly and significantly in the manipulated locations, while the abundance of oligochaetes appeared to vary in a seasonal manner. Temporal variability of the structure and composition of assemblages was also increased in manipulated locations. Such effects have previously been suggested to indicate stress in benthic assemblages. Therefore, in contrast to what was predicted, managerial actions made benthic fauna less abundant and thus, less suitable as habitat for feeding birds. Several general lessons can be learned from these results. (1) Effects of managerial actions like these are difficult to predict a priori and can only be reliably evaluated with an experimental framework. (2) Because abundances of animals vary naturally, evaluations of managerial actions must include appropriate spatial replication. (3) Sampling at hierarchical temporal scales is important, because abundances of animals may vary in an unpredictable manner at short temporal scales and because changes in temporal variability may be a symptom of stress. (4) Combined use of uni- and multivariate techniques provides a comprehensive set of tools to assess the effects of restoration and creation of new habitats. Finally, these results emphasise the need for clear predictions about desired outcomes and specific experimental plans about how to test whether the desired results were achieved, before managerial actions are taken. Although this is often very difficult to achieve in real situations, it is necessary for practices of management to evolve on the basis of sound empirical experience.     

A critical and empirical analysis of the national-local ‘gap’ in public responses to large-scale energy infrastructures

A national-local ‘gap’ is often used as the starting point for analyses of public responses to large scale energy infrastructures. We critique three assumptions found in that literature: the public's positive attitudes, without further examining other type of perceptions at a national level; that local perceptions are best examined through a siting rather than place-based approach; that a gap exists between national and local responses, despite a non-correspondence in how these are examined. Survey research conducted at national and local levels about electricity transmission lines in the UK confirm these criticisms. Results do not support a gap between national and local levels; instead, both differences and similarities were found. Results show the value of adopting a place-based approach and the role of surveys to inform policy making are discussed.     

基于半经验模型对大面积染料敏化太阳电池性能影响因素的研究

以影响大面积染料敏化太阳电池性能的几个物理参量和几何参量为切入点,分析了内部电阻对电池性能的影响,针对几种构型不同的大面积电池,建立了效率的半经验模型.根据并联、串联、和各单元独立式串并联的大面积电池的相关物理参量和几何参量,对电池效率进行了计算.通过比较计算值与测试值的偏差,分析了半经验模型的适用性.在半经验模型的基础上,分析了相关物理参量和几何参量对电池性能的影响.结果表明,在实际应用中,通过半经验模型分析物理参量和几何参量的影响,可以优化大面积电池的性能.     

中国农业面源污染物排放量计算及中长期预测

利用第一次全国污染源普查数据,计算了我国内地31个省市自治区农业面源污染排放量,在此基础上,预测了2010—2030年农业面源污染情况.结果表明,2007年,我国农业面源污染的污染物总排放量为1057×104t,其中,COD排放量为825.9×104t,总氮为187.2×104t,总磷为21.6×104t,氨氮为22.4×104t.如果不加大对面源污染的治理力度,2020年前我国农业面源污染有加剧的趋势.在高排放情景下,2030年农业面源污染中COD排放量可能上升到1466.5×104t,面源污染需引起高度重视.目前,东部沿海地区是我国农业面源污染的主要排放区,但未来我国农业面源污染排放的空间分布可能趋于均衡.     

大型活动客流监测预警方法研究

随着我国经济文化的发展,大型活动日益增多,大型活动中人群拥挤事故作为大型活动事故预防控制的重点,逐渐引起人们的重视.本文从观众结构、时间分布、空间分布及运动性特征四方面分析了大型活动客流的相关特性;论述了大型活动安全监测的内容与方法,确定了安全监测的重点部位;从安全容量、安全密度、安全速度、密度变化率和速度变化率五个角度提出了大型活动客流风险的预警方法,并比较了各类方法的优缺点.研究成果为保障我国大型活动的顺利召开,避免拥挤踩踏事故的发生有一定的借鉴意义.