气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Monitoring of Butter and Ghee (Clarified Butter Fat) for Pesticidal Contamination from Cotton Belt of Haryana, India

Butter (45) and ghee (55) samples were collected from rural and urban areas of cotton growing belt of Haryana and analysed for detecting the residues of organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. The estimation was carried out by using multi residue analytical technique employing GC-ECD and GC-NPD systems equipped with capillary columns. Butter samples were comparatively more contaminated (97%) than ghee (94%), showing more contamination with organochlorine insecticides from urban samples. About 11% samples of butter showed endosulfan residues above MRL value and 2% samples had residues of synthetic pyrethroids and organophosphates each above their respective MRL values. In ghee, residues of HCH & DDT both and of endosulfan exceeded the MRL values in 5 and 20% samples, respectively. Among organophosphates, only chlorpyriphos was detected with 9% samples showing its residue above MRL value. Irrespective of contamination levels, residues above the MRL values were more in ghee. More extensive study covering other agricultural regions/zones of Haryana has been suggested to know the overall scenario of contamination of milk products.     

Monitoring of Seasonal Vegetables for Pesticide Residues

Market samples (60) of six seasonal vegetables were monitoredduring 1996–1997 to determine the magnitude of pesticidalcontamination. The estimation of insecticide residuesrepresenting four major chemical groups i.e. organochlorine,organophosphorous, synthetic pyrethroid and carbamate, was doneby adopting a multiresidue analytical technique employingGC-ECD and GC-NPD systems with capillary columns. The testedsamples showed 100% contamination with low but measurableamounts of residues. Among the four chemical groups, theorganophosphates were dominant followed by organochlorines,synthetic pyrethroids and carbamates. About 23% of the samplesshowed contamination with organophosphorous compounds abovetheir respective MRL values. More extensive studies coveringdifferent regions of Haryana state are suggested to get a clearidea of the magnitude of vegetable contamination with pesticideresidues.     

多级模糊模式识别方法用于湖泊水质评价

进行模糊综合评估的应用与研究很多，在那些方法中主要应用最大隶属度原则进行最后的评定，但是湖泊水质评价涉及到多样点多项指标等多因素，一般模糊综合评价方法中的最大隶属度原则不能适用。本文利用多级模糊模式识别方法的基本理论，通过多目标优选，给出了更加合理、科学的评价模型；利用该模型我们对武汉市东湖水质监测结果做出了较为合理的评价。     

开式冷挤压成形深小锥孔件时极限变形程度的理论研究

给出了深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形时极限变形程度的定义,建立了变形区非稳态连续速度场;利用上限原理得到了极限变形程度的理论判据。分析了各主要参数对极限变形程度的影响规律,对指导制定深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形工艺具有重要意义。     

ENHANCING FECAL COLIFORM TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOAD MODELS THROUGH BACTERIAL SOURCE TRACKING1

ABSTRACT: Surface water impairment by fecal coliform bacteria is a water quality issue of national scope and importance. In Virginia, more than 400 stream and river segments are on the Commonwealth's 2002 303(d) list because of fecal coliform impairment. Total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) will be developed for most of these listed streams and rivers. Information regarding the major fecal coliform sources that impair surface water quality would enhance the development of effective watershed models and improve TMDLs. Bacterial source tracking (BST) is a recently developed technology for identifying the sources of fecal coliform bacteria and it may be helpful in generating improved TMDLs. Bacterial source tracking was performed, watershed models were developed, and TMDLs were prepared for three streams (Accotink Creek, Christians Creek, and Blacks Run) on Virginia's 303(d) list of impaired waters. Quality assurance of the BST work suggests that these data adequately describe the bacteria sources that are impairing these streams. Initial comparison of simulated bacterial sources with the observed BST data indicated that the fecal coliform sources were represented inaccurately in the initial model simulation. Revised model simulations (based on BST data) appeared to provide a better representation of the sources of fecal coliform bacteria in these three streams. The coupled approach of incorporating BST data into the fecal coliform transport model appears to reduce model uncertainty and should result in an improved TMDL.     

Assessment of the maximum allowed acid deposition load at current stage in China

Soil acidification caused by acid deposition has been significant in some forests in southern China. We present an approach for assessing the current stage maximum allowed load (SML) of acid deposition for terrestrial system in the country. The main idea was that soil base cation exchange as a finite buffer to acidity was included in the soil acidity mass balance calculation at current acidification stage. We calculated the SML for five forests in southern China. The usual critical loads for the same forests were also calculated by the steady state mass balance model for comparison. The results showed that the SML is a more tolerant limit than the critical load for the forests with soils not acidified seriously at current stage. However, the SML become a more stringent limit to acid deposition when the forest soils have acidified seriously to very low base cation saturation. In this case the SML assessment is beneficial for the soils recovering from a serious acidified state. Based on a national scale database, the SML mapping for non-agricultural soil system in China was carried out.     

SCREEN3模型在大气环境管理中的应用研究

基于高斯扩散的单源估算模式SCREEN3计算佛山市环境统计企业的SO2排放最大落地浓度距离,发现全市工业企业SO2排放最大落地浓度距离为0.4~13.5 km.其中水泥和火电等高架源的最大落地浓度的距离最远.佛山市及五区纳入环境统计的重点废气排放企业平均的SO2排放最大落地浓度距离为2.9~4.9 km,能直接影响国控监测点位的企业合计37家,其中40%为高明区的企业.该结果证明加强空气质量国控监测点位周边至少5 km内废气排放企业的督查有利于空气质量的改善.     

太湖春季和秋季蓝藻光合作用活性研究

采用Phyto-PAM浮游植物分析仪测定太湖蓝藻光合作用活性的时空间分布.结果表明,太湖蓝藻光合活性具有显著的时空差异:春季蓝藻的最大光量子产量F_v/F_m (可变荧光和最大荧光之比)和实际光量子产量F_v'/F_m'分别在0.35~0.49和0.16~0.29之间,秋季蓝藻分别在 0.33~0.53和0.21~0.43之间,太湖秋季蓝藻的最大光合作用能力和实际光合作用能力大于春季蓝藻.春季和秋季蓝藻的非光化学淬灭NPQ(non-photochemical quenching)分别在0.012~0.17和0.035~0.26之间,秋季蓝藻的NPQ高于春季蓝藻,说明秋季蓝藻的自我保护能力高于春季蓝藻.快速光响应曲线(Rapid light curve, RLC)的特征参数表明春季蓝藻的光能利用效率、最大电子传递速率和光饱和强度点高于秋季蓝藻;从空间分布来看,蓝藻的最大光合作用能力、实际光合作用能力和光合作用效率在营养水平低和有水草分布的湖区相对较低,富营养化水平高的湖区则相对较高.因此,降低太湖营养盐浓度,恢复水生植物,能够抑制蓝藻的光合作用活性和生长,从而降低蓝藻水华强度.