Precipitation as the Primary Driver of Variability in River Nitrogen Loads in the Midwest United States

Nitrogen (N) losses from agricultural lands in the Midwest United States are contributing to the expansion of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. This study evaluated the importance of inter‐annual variability in precipitation, land cover, and N fertilizer use on NO₃ + NO₂‐N loads in seven United States Midwestern Rivers using the backward stepwise regression analysis. At the annual scale, fluctuations in the current and previous years’ precipitations explained much of the variation in streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. Previous years precipitation effects were associated with fillable soil porosity. In some years, higher residual soil N from previous dry years also contributed to an increase in N‐load. Area under soybean production (SOY), a surrogate for replacement of prairies and small grains was generally not a significant explanatory variable. Fertilizer use from 1987 to 2012 was also not a significant explanatory variable in the annual analysis. Precipitation in both the current and previous months and previous year were important in explaining variation in monthly streamflow, baseflow, and N‐load. SOY was significant in one or two months from June to August, but had a higher p‐value than precipitation. We conclude recent increases in river N‐loads are primarily due to wet climate and minimally due to the changes in land cover or N fertilizer use. Under current cropping systems and agronomic N application rates, tile water remediation will be necessary to reduce river N‐loads.     

WATER DIVERSIONS TO THE NORTH AMERICAN PRAIRIES1

ABSTRACT .The major purpose of existing and proposed diversions of water to the Prairies is for irrigation. Being flat lands adaptable to mechanized agriculture and possessing a good network of rail and highway access, they are well suited for such use. Wheat surpluses, currently a serious problem in Canada, can be expected to melt under world population pressures and conversion of wheat lands to other crops with the advent of irrigation. The water sources envisaged are in the Canadian Arctic watershed with the United States purchasing Canadian water at the boundary. There is an increasing interest in the Canadian Prairie Provinces in regarding water as a commodity and selling some of it to pay for the development required to put the portion retained in Canada to use.