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1.
Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
2.
本文系笔者对贵阳地区主要地质环境和工程地质特点进行的初步总结,内容为贵阳地区主要岩土构成情况、分布范围及与之相应的岩土工程地质特点和主要的岩土工程地质问题的描述,旨在给同行提供宏观性的了解和方向性的参考。 相似文献
3.
石油化工厂区土壤中总石油烃分布的研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
为了进行石油化工厂区地下环境的现场评估,利用气相色谱法(EPA8015B)对其土壤中总石油烃(TPHs)进行了测定,测定结果以柴油范围的有机物(DRO)和润滑油范围的有机物(ORO)表示。结果表明:土壤各层DRO检出率在58%-72%之间,ORO检出率在82%-89%之间,大多数检出点位的DRO、ORO含量小于500mg/kg;个别点位的DRO、ORO高达30000mg/kg。 相似文献
4.
闫晓娜 《防灾科技学院学报》2006,8(3):93-95
本文对山西运城遥测地震台网及山西省数字流动地震观测仪记录的2005年1月31日至2月28日在山西省运城盆地范围内发生的7次高频地振动波形进行分析处理,精确划出了振动范围,并结合本区域内的地质构造分析震情趋势。 相似文献
5.
6.
Baxter E. Vieux Fekadu G. Moreda 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(4):757-769
ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border. 相似文献
7.
ABSTRACT: The time to hydrograph peak of a watershed basin has been found to correlate with various statistical attributes (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) of its hypsometric curve (treated as probability distribution). This paper presents a theoretical travel time that is conceptually analogous to the time to hydrograph peak and can be calculated directly from the hypsometric curve of a watershed basin based on gravity and acceleration. The theoretical travel times for 23 selected watersheds in the United States are found to correlate significantly with their corresponding hypsometric attributes. In addition, the theoretical travel times are consistent with the times of concentration estimated from the Federal Aviation Administration method. Thus, this paper offers a simple theoretical explanation to the empirically identified linkage between time to hydrograph peak and hypsometric attributes. This theoretical travel time can provide an alternative way of characterizing the effects of basin morphometry on hydrologic response. 相似文献
8.
Keith E. Schilling Robert D. Libra 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(4):851-860
ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds. 相似文献
9.
Gerard McMahon Jerad D. Bales James F. Coles Elise M. P. Giddings Humbert Zappia 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(6):1529-1546
ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems—overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme‐stage conditions. This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings—the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures. 相似文献
10.
Joseph L. Ebersole William J. Liss Christopher A. Frissell 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(2):355-368
ABSTRACT: Discrete cold water patches within the surface waters of summer warm streams afford potential thermal refuge for cold water fishes during periods of heat stress. This analysis focused on reach scale heterogeneity in water temperatures as influenced by local influx of cooler subsurface waters. Using field thermal probes and recording thermistors, we identified and characterized cold water patches (at least 3°C colder than ambient streamflow temperatures) potentially serving as thermal refugia for cold water fishes. Among 37 study sites within alluvial valleys of the Grande Ronde basin in northeastern Oregon, we identified cold water patches associated with side channels, alcoves, lateral seeps, and floodplain spring brooks. These types differed with regard to within floodplain position, area, spatial thermal range, substrate, and availability of cover for fish. Experimental shading cooled daily maximum temperatures of surface waters within cold water patches 2 to 4°C, indicating a strong influence of riparian vegetation on the expression of cold water patch thermal characteristics. Strong vertical temperature gradients associated with heating of surface layers of cold water patches exposed to solar radiation, superimposed upon vertical gradients in dissolved oxygen, can partially restrict suitable refuge volumes for stream salmonids within cold water patches. 相似文献